The Bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island occurred on the 23rd of November 2010. It occurred as a retaliation to the annual Hoguk training exercise, held by ROK and US troops. Days before the attack North Korea had presented their new uranium enrichment facility, and on March that year a South Korea corvette was sunk by a North Korean submarine. For South Korea conservative President was just in the second half of the 5-year presidency. He was now lame-ducked due to the massive uprising that was the 2008 anti-US demonstrations. His popularity was greatly in decline, and the death of Roh Moo-hyun was not giving him the implosion of the opposition as quickly as he needed it.
IOTL he thus chooses the NK-neutral, anti-Japanese route of diplomacy, visiting Dokdo a year later and seeing some increased support from the younger population. It did not stop him however from becoming a lame duck, which led his reputation to become a slandering, pro-business bigot after his presidency ended in 25 February 2013. Now let's say that, after the first minutes of hearing about the NK attacks, he decides to escalate the situation and directly bomb the military facilities around Haeju and the surrounding regions. What is the worst that could happen? How far is NK willing to happen? Does NK have the guts to directly oppose ROK? Do they have the military capabilities?
IOTL he thus chooses the NK-neutral, anti-Japanese route of diplomacy, visiting Dokdo a year later and seeing some increased support from the younger population. It did not stop him however from becoming a lame duck, which led his reputation to become a slandering, pro-business bigot after his presidency ended in 25 February 2013. Now let's say that, after the first minutes of hearing about the NK attacks, he decides to escalate the situation and directly bomb the military facilities around Haeju and the surrounding regions. What is the worst that could happen? How far is NK willing to happen? Does NK have the guts to directly oppose ROK? Do they have the military capabilities?