WI: South Korea escalated Yeonpyeong Island crisis of 2010

The Bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island occurred on the 23rd of November 2010. It occurred as a retaliation to the annual Hoguk training exercise, held by ROK and US troops. Days before the attack North Korea had presented their new uranium enrichment facility, and on March that year a South Korea corvette was sunk by a North Korean submarine. For South Korea conservative President was just in the second half of the 5-year presidency. He was now lame-ducked due to the massive uprising that was the 2008 anti-US demonstrations. His popularity was greatly in decline, and the death of Roh Moo-hyun was not giving him the implosion of the opposition as quickly as he needed it.

IOTL he thus chooses the NK-neutral, anti-Japanese route of diplomacy, visiting Dokdo a year later and seeing some increased support from the younger population. It did not stop him however from becoming a lame duck, which led his reputation to become a slandering, pro-business bigot after his presidency ended in 25 February 2013. Now let's say that, after the first minutes of hearing about the NK attacks, he decides to escalate the situation and directly bomb the military facilities around Haeju and the surrounding regions. What is the worst that could happen? How far is NK willing to happen? Does NK have the guts to directly oppose ROK? Do they have the military capabilities?
 
War with North Korea. South Korea damages in billions and hundreds of lives lost.either China quickly take out the Kim's or will take a buffer zone in north of the country. If it's opinion 2 South Korea will lost tons of men and money fighting the northern army and face a massive human wave south and a large Insurgency.
 
Assuming a war with NK, Seoul will get trashed pretty badly be long range artillery before the ROK/US shuts it down. In a conventional war, its ugly for a bit then NK gets stomped...their sleepers/SF make things ugly in the rear area for a while but their equipment is old, infrastructure sucks, and the Chinese and Russians won't be helpful. I would expect the Chinese would establish some sort of buffer "protectorate", they would most definitely not want a US allied ROK having a common border with them.

If the NKs use WMD (chem, bio, nuke) then it really hits the fan, and have a hunch at that point the US/ROK will insist that ALL of the territory of NK be occupied/reunified with the ROK.

whatever political differences there are in the ROK very few want to see reunification of Korea under the NK government.
 
IIRC the ROK wanted to take a harder line against DPRK, but did not due to quiet lobbying by Washington.

The question is how does the ROK respond to the deaths of their citizens in a proportionate way without instigating a broader conflict? An aerial strike against the artillery site, reasonable to justify and unlikely to escalate or should they strike at a North Korean naval base and attack the midget submarine capability?


I'd say option A is better, but may very well still lead to further escalation, who really knows with the North Koreans.
 
The question is how does the ROK respond to the deaths of their citizens in a proportionate way without instigating a broader conflict? An aerial strike against the artillery site, reasonable to justify and unlikely to escalate or should they strike at a North Korean naval base and attack the midget submarine capability?

It is well-known that all, if not most, of the artillery sites north of the DMZ are known and mapped out. Because of that even opening up the tunnels that they are hidden in will result in immediate retaliation, most likely in the form of missiles or other artillery.

The Kims would know that going too far would result in another Saddam. I doubt they would want to risk it.
 

takerma

Banned
Is he going for an all out decisive strike North? He knows that step by step escalation will lead at some point to bombardment of Seoul.

I wonder what is the operational ROK plan for a pre-emptive strike?

I think that if ROK plays smart, 2-3 day preparation followed by an all out attack across DMZ. North will collapse and quick. Chinese will probably grab some areas near the border but Korea can be unified(then process of integration of the country begins and it will not be easy) and this Lame Duck president will be Korean hero forever ;)
 
The Bombardment of Yeonpyeong Island occurred on the 23rd of November 2010. It occurred as a retaliation to the annual Hoguk training exercise, held by ROK and US troops. Days before the attack North Korea had presented their new uranium enrichment facility, and on March that year a South Korea corvette was sunk by a North Korean submarine. For South Korea conservative President was just in the second half of the 5-year presidency. He was now lame-ducked due to the massive uprising that was the 2008 anti-US demonstrations. His popularity was greatly in decline, and the death of Roh Moo-hyun was not giving him the implosion of the opposition as quickly as he needed it.

IOTL he thus chooses the NK-neutral, anti-Japanese route of diplomacy, visiting Dokdo a year later and seeing some increased support from the younger population. It did not stop him however from becoming a lame duck, which led his reputation to become a slandering, pro-business bigot after his presidency ended in 25 February 2013. Now let's say that, after the first minutes of hearing about the NK attacks, he decides to escalate the situation and directly bomb the military facilities around Haeju and the surrounding regions. What is the worst that could happen? How far is NK willing to happen? Does NK have the guts to directly oppose ROK? Do they have the military capabilities?

South Korea Turned the other Cheek

They would have been justified to have Fired back with an MRLS Battery targeting the offending NK Artillery unit (that'll learn them) and in the case of the sunken Corvette with a Mk46 Torpedo.
 
Is he going for an all out decisive strike North? He knows that step by step escalation will lead at some point to bombardment of Seoul.
at this point I doubt he cares that much about ROK, although in this situation he may reconsider. but the consensus at the time was that Lee should have ordered a limited strike at least.
I wonder what is the operational ROK plan for a pre-emptive strike?
I do not think one exists. The best one that's 'pre-emptive' is based on a special forces strike on a nuclear silo/research plant in case of internal chaos.
I think that if ROK plays smart, 2-3 day preparation followed by an all out attack across DMZ. North will collapse and quick. Chinese will probably grab some areas near the border but Korea can be unified(then process of integration of the country begins and it will not be easy) and this Lame Duck president will be Korean hero forever ;)
To attack all the way to Pyongyang would be too much casualties for the government to bear. At best it would be up to Haeju(~20km north) on all fronts and then retreat, with a larger demilitarised zone. Too much casualties and Lee would become worse than a Lame Duck - he becomes a murderous warmonger.
 
What I often hear is that a second Korean war would involve massive damage to the South in the opening hours from North Korean artillery on Seoul, followed by a lightning strike in an attempt to seize Seoul. The North would then try and secure a UN brokered ceasefire since they would know that the war would turn fairly quickly for them. From what I can tell, the success of such a conflict would depend on the element of surprise. But I also assume that the South recognizes that as well, and may choose to strike first and try and take out North Korean artillery positions if they thought a war was imminent.
 
What I often hear is that a second Korean war would involve massive damage to the South in the opening hours from North Korean artillery on Seoul, followed by a lightning strike in an attempt to seize Seoul. The North would then try and secure a UN brokered ceasefire since they would know that the war would turn fairly quickly for them. From what I can tell, the success of such a conflict would depend on the element of surprise. But I also assume that the South recognizes that as well, and may choose to strike first and try and take out North Korean artillery positions if they thought a war was imminent.

Indeed. ROK is already aware of where most of the artillery is, and it wouldn't be hard to pop some missiles in the underground bases.
 
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