WI: South Caucasus campaign in WWII

That's a reboot of a previous thread of mine.

The idea is basically Army Group A under List somehow keeps armored support longer and is able to take Baku during autumn 1942.
However, there is no use for oil fields since they have been methodically destroyed by retreating Soviet forces.
The question is how things will go on with Soviet forces trapped south of the Caucasus mountains.

We have the Tenth British Army under General Sir Edward P Quinan in Iran ready to intervene and support Soviet forces, but would it be acceptable for Stalin to see Allied forces stepping onto Soviet soil, especially with the memory of the intervention during the civil war and the case of Baku Commissars.
Also, with Germans south of the Caucasus, what's left of the Soviet Black Sea Fleet is in danger of losing its last ports in Georgia (though I don't exactly know what happened after the fall of Crimea, I guess that's where it was based then).

In the end, we still have Zhukov launching Little Saturn, perhaps ealier due to pressure from the fall of Baku, and eventually trapping Army Group A in Transcaucasus region if advanced too much for a quick retreat.
I think it's interesting to see how this ends. Since Army Group A is occupying the oil fields (though they are destroyed, there is no material to repair and even less possibility to export), I could imagine Hitler ordering them to stand on their ground, pending a later counter attack to restore contact. That might give way to a disaster of greater magnitude than IOTL. In the event of such a catastrophe, there would only be a seaborn evacuation possible, but could the Soviet Navy interdict it or not, or even the Germans have enough ships to do it?
Given the strategic importance of the oil fields, I think that Stalin wouldn't quietly sit and wait for Army Group A to be mopped up.

Your thoughts?
 

CaliGuy

Banned
That's a reboot of a previous thread of mine.

The idea is basically Army Group A under List somehow keeps armored support longer and is able to take Baku during autumn 1942.

Would this be enough for them to overcome the logistical hurdle of crossing the Caucasian Mountains, though?

Also, couldn't the Caucasian Mountains serve as a great defensive barrier for the Soviets?
 
Oh hey, I actually had a set up for this as a flashback to my TL: Justiz in Nurnberg. In here, a living Walther von Reichenau convinces Hitler to 'transition' the Sixth Army from Stalingrad to Baku. But the Soviets have a trick up their sleeve. But it's interesting to see a other scenario of Germans capturing Baku. Here's the link to flashback in case you're interested.

Link: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/ahc-justiz-in-nurnberg-flashbacks.409308/
 
That's a reboot of a previous thread of mine.

The idea is basically Army Group A under List somehow keeps armored support longer and is able to take Baku during autumn 1942.
However, there is no use for oil fields since they have been methodically destroyed by retreating Soviet forces.
The question is how things will go on with Soviet forces trapped south of the Caucasus mountains.

We have the Tenth British Army under General Sir Edward P Quinan in Iran ready to intervene and support Soviet forces, but would it be acceptable for Stalin to see Allied forces stepping onto Soviet soil, especially with the memory of the intervention during the civil war and the case of Baku Commissars.
Also, with Germans south of the Caucasus, what's left of the Soviet Black Sea Fleet is in danger of losing its last ports in Georgia (though I don't exactly know what happened after the fall of Crimea, I guess that's where it was based then).

In the end, we still have Zhukov launching Little Saturn, perhaps ealier due to pressure from the fall of Baku, and eventually trapping Army Group A in Transcaucasus region if advanced too much for a quick retreat.
I think it's interesting to see how this ends. Since Army Group A is occupying the oil fields (though they are destroyed, there is no material to repair and even less possibility to export), I could imagine Hitler ordering them to stand on their ground, pending a later counter attack to restore contact. That might give way to a disaster of greater magnitude than IOTL. In the event of such a catastrophe, there would only be a seaborn evacuation possible, but could the Soviet Navy interdict it or not, or even the Germans have enough ships to do it?
Given the strategic importance of the oil fields, I think that Stalin wouldn't quietly sit and wait for Army Group A to be mopped up.

Your thoughts?

With the oil fields gone the Soviets have a problem too i would think. They need that oil as much as the Germans do.

Failing to capture the oil fields intact is a failed operation and would result in the total annihilation of that army group, like OTL only a much harder fight. Their supply lines and forces that much more stretched and in roughe terrain, there is no chance they won't be destroyed.

I doubt the Soviets will allow Allied forces to enter their land.

To my knowledge the Axis had little ships in the black sea as Turkey didn't allow them to pass into. So only Bulgarian and Romanian ships were present and they stand no chance to whatever the Soviets have. Definitly not enough to evacuate an army anyway.

In fact there is a small chance Turkey will be pressured to join the war at that point on the side of the allies, to make sure the Germans don't make it a border conflict that could possibly turn a decisive victory into a pyrrhic one. Of course doing that as early as 1943 would not be a good idea for Turkey, possibly losing Istanbul.

THat though, is an interesting point to invade for the WAllies.
 
This made me think of a scene . . .

A patrol of Gebirgstruppen is approaching a pass into Iran. They see an enemy soldier ahead. He is shouting at them.

"Anyone here speak English?" the Feldwebel says.

Private Hans, whose mother had been a nanny in an English family, steps forward, listens, and says, "He's saying 'You go back now! Make no trouble!'"

"Call the Abteilung, have them come up. The rest of you follow!" The Gebirgstruppen run forward, go over the crest of the hill . . . .

Major Warnke arrives with the staff echelon of the Abteilung. He approaches Private Hans. "What's going on?"

"Feldwebel Bauer led the patrol over that ridge and they vanished."

"Ach du s---- Leutnant Horst, take Nr. 4 Kompanie and secure that pass!"

They look up and see the soldier. He shouts again. Private Hans says, "He's saying, 'No come here! Go away!'"

"That's one of the Gurkhas. He's only one man. Horst, what are you doing standing around?"

"Vorwärts!" Leutnant Horst says, and the kompanie sets out at the double. They go over the crest of the pass.

After a few minutes, another abteilung arrives, and the two commanders began to discuss the situation. Looking at the pass, the regimental commander says, "Call in artillery. See if those useless flyboys can do --- what's that?"

One Gebirgsjäger staggers towards them. His helmet is gone, so are his weapons, his uniform is in rags, and he's missing a boot. He shouts, "It's a trap! It's a trap! There's another one of them!!!"
 
With the oil fields gone the Soviets have a problem too i would think. They need that oil as much as the Germans do.
How bad can the Soviets be hurt? What reserves or alternate oil resources do they have?

Anyway, I wonder if the import of oil from and through Iran is feasible. I know that the railways of Iran and USSR were not yet connected during WWII, but the TransIranian Railway, achieved years before had its terminus at Bandar Torkaman, not far from Turkemistan and the port of Turkmenbashi which is connected to Soviet rail network. Though there would be need of some road and sea transportation on the short distance separating the two ports, I guess it wouldn't be much a problem for Stalin to mobilize a few thousands workers to extend Soviet railways up to Bandar Torkaman in a matter of weeks.

There, from wikipedia, the Trans Iranian railway as of 1939:
657px-Transiran_railway_en.png



And there, from a map of Soviet rail network in 1941 :
soviet railway south 1941.JPG
 
Taking Baku in the Summer Campaign was impossible due to logistics and, while desirable as an strategic goal if possible, even Hitler was able to recognize the much more realistic targets of Maikop and Grozny should be the goals of Case Blue. In short, this would never happen although one could set up the situation for the Reich to manage it in 1943 with some easy PoDs. Also, since it was mentioned, Baku produced about 80% of the Soviet oil production while Grozny and Maikop together produced about 10%.
 
How bad can the Soviets be hurt? What reserves or alternate oil resources do they have?

Anyway, I wonder if the import of oil from and through Iran is feasible. I know that the railways of Iran and USSR were not yet connected during WWII, but the TransIranian Railway, achieved years before had its terminus at Bandar Torkaman, not far from Turkemistan and the port of Turkmenbashi which is connected to Soviet rail network. Though there would be need of some road and sea transportation on the short distance separating the two ports, I guess it wouldn't be much a problem for Stalin to mobilize a few thousands workers to extend Soviet railways up to Bandar Torkaman in a matter of weeks.

Well like said above me, the USSR just lost 90 percent of their oil production. Imports could be established but i doubt the Iranians can or will supply the amount equal to the demand. The British will send from Iraq and the US will probably start sending in ships. But they need a lot, and i mean a lot. They will probably have to pay a lot for it eventually as well.

I'd say the Soviet war machine just got slowed down to a crawl. No planes or tanks would get the oil they need. Not to mention the trains themselves(nobody ever mentions trains when talking about oil need).
 
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Taking Baku in the Summer Campaign was impossible due to logistics and, while desirable as an strategic goal if possible, even Hitler was able to recognize the much more realistic targets of Maikop and Grozny should be the goals of Case Blue. In short, this would never happen although one could set up the situation for the Reich to manage it in 1943 with some easy PoDs. Also, since it was mentioned, Baku produced about 80% of the Soviet oil production while Grozny and Maikop together produced about 10%.
That would be in early autumn, and possibly as a consequence of List retaining longer armored support instead of it traveling all time between Army Groups A and B, so I guess Stalingrad would happen earlier.

Well like said above me, the USSR just lost 90 percent of their oil production. Imports could be established but i doubt the Iranians can or will supply the amount equal to the demand. The British will send from Iraq and the US will probably start sending in ships. But they need a lot, and i mean a lot. They will probably have to pay a lot for it eventually as well.

I'd say the Soviet war machine just got slowed down to a crawl. No planes or tanks would get the oil they need. Not to mention the trains themselves(nobody ever mentions trains when talking about oil need).
So, immediatly, that would mean ending major motorized operations and shifting to non motorized means, except what's needed for Zhukov to retake Don area and Caucasus. I read that initially, Little Saturn was intended as a diversion for Operation Mars against Rzhev salient, so we could see Zhukov changing the plan so the attack on Rzhev salient but scrapping all the other front of what fuel along tanks and motorized transports he can get for a major offensive in the Don area before going into Caucasus.
But also, by underlining the fact that Soviets are so reliant on the oil from Baku, could we imagine that Stalin would let Quinan and the British 10th Army into Azerbaijan to recover Baku as soon as possible?
Also, I imagine it could be possible to build synthetic fuel plants.
On railway, how much of the locomotives are powered by oil engine and how many on steam (I guess coal shall not be as much a problem)?
 
That would be in early autumn, and possibly as a consequence of List retaining longer armored support instead of it traveling all time between Army Groups A and B, so I guess Stalingrad would happen earlier.


So, immediatly, that would mean ending major motorized operations and shifting to non motorized means, except what's needed for Zhukov to retake Don area and Caucasus. I read that initially, Little Saturn was intended as a diversion for Operation Mars against Rzhev salient, so we could see Zhukov changing the plan so the attack on Rzhev salient but scrapping all the other front of what fuel along tanks and motorized transports he can get for a major offensive in the Don area before going into Caucasus.
But also, by underlining the fact that Soviets are so reliant on the oil from Baku, could we imagine that Stalin would let Quinan and the British 10th Army into Azerbaijan to recover Baku as soon as possible?
Also, I imagine it could be possible to build synthetic fuel plants.
On railway, how much of the locomotives are powered by oil engine and how many on steam (I guess coal shall not be as much a problem)?

Good point on the trains. i thought the diesel locomotives had fully replaced the steam engines by the time of WWII, it appears in Russia they had couple of steam engines stil running and plenty in reserve(a thousand) for a situation exactly like we are producing. So coal it is, a good amount came from Kazakhstan.

As for the offensives, the Russians do have some reserves left and with conservation(less to the airforce i presume) could probably keep their armies rolling for another half year even with major offensives like Mars and little saturn, which can't be aborted really. But after that, heavy conservation of oil usage will be put in place. Battle of Kursk will probably not take place and later Operation Bagration is turned into Little Operation Bagration.
 
That would be in early autumn, and possibly as a consequence of List retaining longer armored support instead of it traveling all time between Army Groups A and B, so I guess Stalingrad would happen earlier.

While the diversion of Army Group A's CAS and whole units certainly affected its combat abilities, the more pressing matter was that German logistics were almost at the breaking point supporting the operations at Stalingrad and attempting to advance into the Caucasus jointly. Also of note is that, as Antony Beever's Stalingrad notes, Baku wasn't an objective in 1942. Yes, taking it if possible would be nice, but even Hitler seemed to realize the only realistic targets he could get at would be Maikop and Grozny and thus they were the goals of the campaign. I'd also point out that as far as cancelling Operation Mars goes, David Glantz in his book on it makes it pretty clear that would be completely out of character for Zhukov and on a strategic level allow AGC to divert logistics as well as armored units to support AGS.
 
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As for the offensives, the Russians do have some reserves left and with conservation(less to the airforce i presume) could probably keep their armies rolling for another half year even with major offensives like Mars and little saturn, which can't be aborted really. But after that, heavy conservation of oil usage will be put in place. Battle of Kursk will probably not take place and later Operation Bagration is turned into Little Operation Bagration.
It's not like Germans were to occupy the oil fields for long. I'm speaking here of a few months, from mid autumn 42 to spring 43 at the latest, when the Caucasus is reconquered, so Kursk may be butterflied, but since the infrastructure would have been rebuilt by summer 44 (with possibly US material help), I don't see why Operation Bagration, whatever name it changes to and delay there may be, would be scaled down.

While the diversion of Army Group A's CAS and whole units certainly affected its combat abilities, the more pressing matter was that German logistics were almost at the breaking point supporting the operations at Stalingrad and attempting to advance into the Caucasus jointly. Also of note is that, as Antony Beever's Stalingrad notes, Baku wasn't an objective in 1942. Yes, taking it if possible would be nice, but even Hitler seemed to realize the only realistic targets he could get at would be Maikop and Grozny and thus they were the goals of the campaign. I'd also point out that as far as cancelling Operation Mars goes, David Glantz in his book on it makes it pretty clear that would be completely out of character for Zhukov and on a strategic level allow AGC to divert logistics as well as armored units to support AGS.
It's not as if Hitler was known for his rational strategy. We could have Hitler pushing further towards Baku for some reason (maybe some pod involving Ploesti fields being threatened by the Allies pushing Hitler to value more the Baku fields or something in the kind, perhaps Crete remaining in Allies' hands).
The point about logistical limits and overreach by Army Group A is perfectly valid, and that's exactly why I only view it as an interlude, with the army group quickly finding himself prisonner of its conquest as Zhukov cuts it off by retaking the Don area (overall, that can be seen as a mini German screw TL with much more prisonners than at Stalingrad or in Tunisia).
And I'm not speaking about cancelling Operation Mars, but altering the objectives (it only begins in late november, so depending on the time Germans capture Baku, there may be room for it), so to make the attack on the Rzhev salient a diversion and the offensive into Donbass a priority (such as dictated by Stalin, now that the loss of the oil fields make their recovery the highest priority).
 
It's not as if Hitler was known for his rational strategy. We could have Hitler pushing further towards Baku for some reason (maybe some pod involving Ploesti fields being threatened by the Allies pushing Hitler to value more the Baku fields or something in the kind, perhaps Crete remaining in Allies' hands).

The thing is though, focusing solely on Grozny and Maikop were indeed the rational strategy at the time because the Germans completely lacked the ability to reach Baku. The fact even Hitler recognized this speaks volumes to the situation, in my honest opinion. As for Crete, removing that completely changes the nature of the conflict by 1942 as that means hundreds of transport planes and several paratrooper divisions are available for Barbarossa in 1941. Doing a combat drop in October in support of the 2nd SS Division at Borodino would've cracked the road to Moscow wide open, for example.

The point about logistical limits and overreach by Army Group A is perfectly valid, and that's exactly why I only view it as an interlude, with the army group quickly finding himself prisonner of its conquest as Zhukov cuts it off by retaking the Don area (overall, that can be seen as a mini German screw TL with much more prisonners than at Stalingrad or in Tunisia).
And I'm not speaking about cancelling Operation Mars, but altering the objectives (it only begins in late november, so depending on the time Germans capture Baku, there may be room for it), so to make the attack on the Rzhev salient a diversion and the offensive into Donbass a priority (such as dictated by Stalin, now that the loss of the oil fields make their recovery the highest priority).

The problem with that is that Mars was where the majority of the Soviet military was, and had already been decided long in advance by November to be the main offensive for the year. AGC's intelligence was also operating top notch with this, allowing it prepare accordingly. Any significant transfer of forces would've been noticed, and countered to the best of Model's ability.
 
On Crete, I thought of a more successful defense.

As of noticing the change in Soviet deployments and reacting accordingly, that's not like Germans (mainly Hitler) never ignored observations that didn't fit their conception of what the enemy was up to. Now, I don't know what Hitler and the general staff thought of Soviet plans before the beginning of Little Saturn and Mars, but given the investment of forces they put in defending the Rzhev salient, it's not hard to imagine they ignore the redeployment as a decoy. Also, though I didn't read much about Kursk and Operation Citadel, it looks to me as if Germans missed the Soviet deployment in the salient in their preparation.
 
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