WI: South Africa partitioned in the 90s

The pre-Constitution era in South Africa in the 90s saw a great deal of political violence and a breakdown in Law and Order. If the country decided their best option going forward was a partition, what would it look like?

I figure you would probably have KwaZulu-Natal outside of Durban ruled by the Zulu King, perhaps an independent Western Cape, possibly an Afrikaner state (but this is really unlikely and hard to bring about), and maybe one of the old Bantustans recieves independence (like the one that had the coup), with the rest of the country (and Durban) ruled by the new government of the National Democratic Revolution under the ANC. The Xhosas would buy into the new state, which they would dominate.

And if the idea of partition is completely infeasible, is it possible that the pre-election violence could have been worse?
 
Yeah here's the thing.

1. Mandela if he's alive won't be happy along with a lot of people for that matter (from all races, who rallied for equality) over a partitioned and racically segregated South Africa.
2. Coloured's and Indians as well as everyone else are in a conundrum. Who on earth would they go with.
3. Are both nations democratic (assuming its only 2).

Anyway if you were to partition it, i'd say Western and Northern Cape and the southern and western parts of the eastern cape (as the southern and western areas bordering the other provinces are mainly afrikaaner areas). form a white nation with Namibia, capivri strip to Botswana or as an independent nation. The rest of current South Africa remains as such and forms under what is modern day south africa. I don't think you need every ethnic group getting their own nation (cause South Africa isn't exactly South Sudan, they can co-exist just fine).

I still don't think it would be a good idea, i mean it could have been possible but you would have had to not have a person like Mandela at the forefront. You kill him off, you're basically guaranteed a civil war i'd say and some kind of revolution. If it comes to that, forget partition, you're looking at something more akin to a bloodbath sadly (where no one wins, people start flooding out of the country for the west with the massive brain drain leading to south africa probably closer to being another Zimbabwe than anything else).
 
I could see the Northern and Western Cape's being lumped together but, Eastern Cape probably does not go along with it.

The more interesting question I think comes with how the ANC, which has publicly and ideologically, at least, condemned and disregarded tribal differences, but privately and actually, is hyper aware of them. Mandela backed Zuma largely because he was a Zulu, after all, and he thought having another Xhosa after Mbeki would be disastrous. Of course, Zuma by and large has behaved much like a Zulu chief since taking power, and there is a very good reason why the ANC's vote total has improved so much in KZN while declining basically everywhere else.

Do these differences get played up in a partition scenario, as I believe they might? Or would a split be more along ideological lines?

And as for the idea of partition itself, perhaps the 90s are too early for it. There had not yet been a development of a black (largely public sector) middle class as of yet, and BEE and the exclusionary labour self interest of COSATU had not yet become palpable forces of division. The cultural alienation of this middle class by Zuma ("clever blacks" comment, polygamy, Nkandla) and the economic reality of what had enriched it (explosion of public sector, the power of the trade unions, BEE) act as simultaneous push and pull factors for the ANC. People may not like Zuma's attitudes and proclivities, but they ultimately know where and how their bread is being buttered.

It might be interesting to imagine a partition in 2014 rather than in 1994, now that I think of it.
 
I could see the Northern and Western Cape's being lumped together but, Eastern Cape probably does not go along with it.

The more interesting question I think comes with how the ANC, which has publicly and ideologically, at least, condemned and disregarded tribal differences, but privately and actually, is hyper aware of them. Mandela backed Zuma largely because he was a Zulu, after all, and he thought having another Xhosa after Mbeki would be disastrous. Of course, Zuma by and large has behaved much like a Zulu chief since taking power, and there is a very good reason why the ANC's vote total has improved so much in KZN while declining basically everywhere else.

Do these differences get played up in a partition scenario, as I believe they might? Or would a split be more along ideological lines?

And as for the idea of partition itself, perhaps the 90s are too early for it. There had not yet been a development of a black (largely public sector) middle class as of yet, and BEE and the exclusionary labour self interest of COSATU had not yet become palpable forces of division. The cultural alienation of this middle class by Zuma ("clever blacks" comment, polygamy, Nkandla) and the economic reality of what had enriched it (explosion of public sector, the power of the trade unions, BEE) act as simultaneous push and pull factors for the ANC. People may not like Zuma's attitudes and proclivities, but they ultimately know where and how their bread is being buttered.

It might be interesting to imagine a partition in 2014 rather than in 1994, now that I think of it.

parts of it, not the entirety, P.E down and west (and the interior near the state borders to free state and the cape) are mostly white and coloured areas anyway right. east london up would be a part of south africa
 
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