WI: Sonderbund victorious in Sonderbund War

Once Lucerne fell, so too would the rest of central Switzerland, and 2/3rds of the Sonderbund. If you want a Catholic victory, you'll need to find a way to prevent this.

I'm not entirely sure how the Sonderbund could pull out a win, however. The Federals outnumber and outgun them in every category. Add in an unwillingness to actually fight among both sides as OTL, and it's doubtful the war will last longer than a few months.

Anyways, asumming a Sonderbund victory, you'd see Switzerland return to a decentralized Confederate model with an emphasis on rural identity. This would result in a much more unstable and poorer Switzerland overall, as the centralization of Switzerland into a federal state was critical in setting up the institutions that would propel it to prominence in the 20th century.
 
Perhaps foreign intervention on the behalf of the Sonderbund?

There really isn't anyone available to come to the Sonderbund's rescue at the moment. Europe is embroiled in the 1848 Revolutions, and every great power is dealing with ridiculous levels of progressive and nationalistic unrest. The best the Sonderbund could hope for would be Italian, Austrian, or French Freischar to cross the border and intervene, but even the ultramontanists are busy with the '48 Revolutions, so their help is doubtful as well.
 
There really isn't anyone available to come to the Sonderbund's rescue at the moment. Europe is embroiled in the 1848 Revolutions, and every great power is dealing with ridiculous levels of progressive and nationalistic unrest. The best the Sonderbund could hope for would be Italian, Austrian, or French Freischar to cross the border and intervene, but even the ultramontanists are busy with the '48 Revolutions, so their help is doubtful as well.
The Sonderbund actually invited Austria in, and Austria seemed inclined to come. But I can't see how this won't completely destroy the Sonderbund's credibility with their own people. Or how they'll ensure that the Austrians leave after the war...
 
The Sonderbund actually invited Austria in, and Austria seemed inclined to come. But I can't see how this won't completely destroy the Sonderbund's credibility with their own people. Or how they'll ensure that the Austrians leave after the war...

Now that I think about it, France was interested in aiding the Sonderbund as well, but both powers couldn't agree on what route to take in helping, so they mostly sat around and did nothing. To make matters worse, Britain made it very clear that it openly favored the Federalists, and was maneuvering to block Franco-Austrian support for the Sonderbund as the war ended.
 
Now that I think about it, France was interested in aiding the Sonderbund as well, but both powers couldn't agree on what route to take in helping, so they mostly sat around and did nothing. To make matters worse, Britain made it very clear that it openly favored the Federalists, and was maneuvering to block Franco-Austrian support for the Sonderbund as the war ended.

That being said, even if Britain was more powerful than France and Austria during this period, Switzerland would be a far more important theatre for Austria and/or France than for the UK. Geopolitics isn't all about power, after all, but also willpower.
 
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