WI: Somalia Won the Ogaden War?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ogaden_War

In the middle of the war, the Somalis attempted to capture the Ethiopian town of Harar and got engaged in a battle with the newly resupplied Ethiopians in what would be the turning point of the war. By November the Somalis weren't able to go forward yet reached the town's outskirts but what if they were able to? If they were to take the town, they basically would have won the war, at least to my knowledge. So I ask what would it take to get the Somalis in a favorable position to do so and how would a Somali victory effect the geopolitical scene of Africa? Will Somalia be able to get stronger and Ethiopia get weaker?
 
You'd probably have to butterfly Soviet intervention, since there was a lot of it and it was vital to Ethiopia turning the tide.
 

Insider

Banned
no. They were one of the poorest nations on earth once they started it, and even if Somalia conquered Etiopia, or other way around it would just make things worse.
 
Before Soviet aid and Cuban troops poured in Ethiopia was on the ropes. They where in chaos since the military take over and the state was falling apart. Somalia for all its faults was doing very well while Ethiopia was over stretched and losing everywhere other then the Air war. I think its plausible enough for Somalia to win.
 
You'd probably have to butterfly Soviet intervention, since there was a lot of it and it was vital to Ethiopia turning the tide.
I think the best way to do this is to have the Derg (the rulers of Ethiopia at the time) more willing to keep accepting US aid but that's if they don't adopt communism as their key ideology to follow (i.e. getting the Mengitsu guy assassinated in the process).
 
Last edited:
no. They were one of the poorest nations on earth once they started it, and even if Somalia conquered Etiopia, or other way around it would just make things worse.

They didn't seek to conquer the whole of Ethiopia, merely the Ogaden region which is populated primarily by ethnic Somalis.

I think there are pretty good prospects for Somalia in such a scenario. They have a less radical regime than Ethiopia, which means that any Eastern bloc leadership other than the quasi-Stalinist gerontocrats would prefer them over the Derg. They're also much easier to work with from the American perspective. Without the loss of prestige accompanying Somalia's historic defeat, Mohamed Siad Barre would likely be far less paranoid about threats to his leadership and would thus run the government more responsibly. IOTL much of the reason for Somalia's collapse was reactions against his heavy-handed post-Ogaden rule. Somalia was relatively homogenous for an African state, allowing it to more easily develop a strong central government in this scenario. Education and infrastructure would be far more developed, laying the foundations for relative prosperity. Port facilities especially could bring in a lot of foreign currency, especially considering Somalia's strategic position near the Bab al-Mandeb and the Red Sea/Suez Canal. The clan nature of Somalian society will be gradually (and peacefully) eroded by large scale urbanisation. If Somalia can tackle issues such as refugees from Ethiopia (the Derg will almost certainly collapse after a defeat against Somalia) and water supply, then there's no reason Somalia can't become a relatively prosperous state in the Sub-Saharan context.
 
They didn't seek to conquer the whole of Ethiopia, merely the Ogaden region which is populated primarily by ethnic Somalis.

I think there are pretty good prospects for Somalia in such a scenario. They have a less radical regime than Ethiopia, which means that any Eastern bloc leadership other than the quasi-Stalinist gerontocrats would prefer them over the Derg. They're also much easier to work with from the American perspective. Without the loss of prestige accompanying Somalia's historic defeat, Mohamed Siad Barre would likely be far less paranoid about threats to his leadership and would thus run the government more responsibly. IOTL much of the reason for Somalia's collapse was reactions against his heavy-handed post-Ogaden rule. Somalia was relatively homogenous for an African state, allowing it to more easily develop a strong central government in this scenario. Education and infrastructure would be far more developed, laying the foundations for relative prosperity. Port facilities especially could bring in a lot of foreign currency, especially considering Somalia's strategic position near the Bab al-Mandeb and the Red Sea/Suez Canal. The clan nature of Somalian society will be gradually (and peacefully) eroded by large scale urbanisation. If Somalia can tackle issues such as refugees from Ethiopia (the Derg will almost certainly collapse after a defeat against Somalia) and water supply, then there's no reason Somalia can't become a relatively prosperous state in the Sub-Saharan context.

Come to think of it, OTL's war ended with the Somalis dumping the Soviets for the US and Ethiopia became more comfy with the Soviets in turn; the outcome for TTL's war might be the opposite with Somalia turning to the Soviets and the Ethiopians towards China (since they have already alienated the US with their red antics).
 
Come to think of it, OTL's war ended with the Somalis dumping the Soviets for the US and Ethiopia became more comfy with the Soviets in turn; the outcome for TTL's war might be the opposite with Somalia turning to the Soviets and the Ethiopians towards China (since they have already alienated the US with their red antics).

Well its partially the Somalis dumping the Soviets and partially the Soviets playing both sides. Once Cuban troops started pouring into Ethiopia, the US was fine with sending aid Mogadishu's way to try and bleed the Cubans.
 
Top