Frequenting alt-history forums for years, it seems to me nearly all Axis victory timelines violate at least one of these truisms, and are hence prima facie implausible:
- The Axis are almost certainly destined to lose any war against the Soviets
- The Axis are CERTAINLY destined to lose any war with the USA
- Stalemate with Britain isn't an option for Germany since it will eventually bomb Germany to bits (conventionally at first; nuclear down the road)
- Stalemate isn't an option for Japan either, since the Royal Navy will eventually wipe out all its shipping
- Britain can't be forced out of the war directly, and neither can it be starved out (Royal Navy too powerful, Britain self-sufficient in food, and the USA would never allow it)
Given all that, he's my idea for an optimum Axis strategy given a 1939 POD. It requires the Axis powers to coordinate their broad strategy, but other than that I don't think anything is unreasonable (besides the reasonableness required on the part of Hitler, Mussolini, and the Japanese leadership of course). I propose to you that it would be IMPOSSIBLE for Britain to successfully counter such a strategy if it was employed competently.
POD: Hitler and Stalin recognize the obvious: that any complete partitioning of the Baltic region will make war between Germany and the Soviet Union inevitable. So instead of the OTL doomed-to-fail M-R Treaty, they come up with something much more durable.
The Soviets will annex Estonia, Latvia, and the ethnically Belarusian/Ukrainian areas of Eastern Poland, while Germany will annex the Corridor and the German areas of Western Poland. The rump Poland, however, will be joined to Lithuania in a revived Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, and it, along with Finland, will be made strong armed neutrals, bound by treaty never to align with either Germany or the SU, and to defend themselves with all force from any future invasion by either.
I'm not sure whether Poland would have to be totally defeated as in OTL to accept such terms, but it doesn't matter either way. War with the Soviets is now off the table for the foreseeable future.
Next the WAllies declare war on Germany for carving up Poland, and as OTL Germany occupies Denmark, Norway, and finally defeats France (with so many troops freed up not occupying Poland or garrisoning the border against the Soviets as heavily this goes down even smoother). After annexing Alsace-Lorraine Hitler has now achieved what he set out to do upon becoming Fuhrer: uniting all the German people in one Riech. He doesn't get his lebensraum, but then that was never realistically possible.
Now the hard part: to get the British to recognize Germany's triumph...
Instead of decimating its airforce pointlessly in a Battle of Britain, Germany instead focuses on downing British bombers over Europe. Similarly, the development effort that went into the V-weapons is focused on anti-aircraft technology. Nor does Germany attempt (vainly) to starve Britain with an all-out u-boat offensive, instead directing the bulk of its submarine force to ports in Italy and Italian North Africa. This strategy has numerous advantages:
- Doesn't unnecessarily piss off the British people (the aim, after all, is peace with Britain)
- Doesn't gain Britain sympathy in the US (and hence more lend-lease) by sinking American ships and flattening British cities
- Minimizes German aircrew and aircraft loses, while maximizing Commonwealth losses
- Doesn't 'teach' the British anti-u-boat-warfare in home waters
Germany's best and only strategy for convincing Britain to give up the war, IMHO, is an all-out North Africa / Middle Eastern / South Asian offensive in concert with Italy and Japan, aimed ultimately at threatening and if need be ending the British hold over India and the Persian Gulf. To this end Hitler first makes clear to Mussolini that he won't be starting any inconvenient wars in the Balkans, and will instead be richly rewarded with a reborn Roman Empire in Egypt and the Levant if he follows along and all goes to plan.
Step one is an invasion of Malta, which should be easily achievable at this date, given the total concentration of German and Italian energies. With a sea route from Italy to Libya mostly-secure (far more so than OTL), Germany with Italy in tow strikes out across the desert for Egypt. This is a tall order, and will require a huge logistical effort, but with *ALL* of Germany and its allies effort focused on the task it should be a slam-dunk. The U-boat fleet will meanwhile focus on destroying British shipping in the Med, out of reach of most British air cover. Suez should be in Axis hands, and the Eastern Mediterranean an Axis lake, by the end of 1941 at the latest (although exactly when doesn't matter, so long as its the inevitable outcome which I think it is).
Meanwhile, Japan needs to not commit hari kari by attacking the US, and instead strike for the Southern Resource areas as OTL but bypassing the Philippines. Again, with resources freed up by not being at war in the central Pacific, and not occupying the Philippines, the Japanese should have an even easier time of conquering Southeast Asia.
Britain is now in what I think is an unsalvageable no-win situation:
- Suez and the Strait of Malacca are both in enemy hands: all supply to India and the Gulf has to go either around the Cape or around Australia
- German and Italian armies advancing toward Iraq and the Gulf, now with another overland supply route through Yugoslavia-Turkey-Syria
- Pro-Axis regimes in Iraq and Persia, which Britain is probably now uncomfortably occupying
- Japanese army advancing through Burma if not already in India proper
- India on the edge of open revolt if not already there
- The Soviets have every incentive to join in on the Axis side and take a slice of Persia and Afghanistan.
...Britain might pointlessly drag things out to the bitter end, or it might see the writing on the wall and settle early, but it certainly can't win once Southern Asia is totally isolated and being advanced upon from all sides.
So in the end:
- Germany, besides its thousand year reich, and domination of Western Europe, likely now has an EXTREMELY strategic petroleum empire in the Persian Gulf, and the perfect place to unload Europe's unloved Jews: Italian Palestine!
- Italy has an Eastern Mediterranean empire including Libya, Egypt, Palestine, and likely the whole of the Horn of Africa
- Japan has its own expanded empire in SE Asia complete with secure-ish resource supplies (the USA could trounce it still, but it's hardly likely to attack unprovoked)
- The Soviet Union have an extended and (crucially) secure Eastern border, and may have picked up territories to its south, all at practically no cost to itself
- France has its Empire back intact, albeit at the cost of its pride
- Britain (likely) still has its Dominion allies and its Sub-Saharan African empire, but it faces the scary prospect of a Europe dominated by one power, and has lost its most populous possessions (in South Asia), and its most profitable (in the Gulf)
- India has its independence, likely with a Fascist-type government
...sooooo... Is there any way for Britain to counter such an Axis strategy / prevent them from achieving (Old) World Domination?
- The Axis are almost certainly destined to lose any war against the Soviets
- The Axis are CERTAINLY destined to lose any war with the USA
- Stalemate with Britain isn't an option for Germany since it will eventually bomb Germany to bits (conventionally at first; nuclear down the road)
- Stalemate isn't an option for Japan either, since the Royal Navy will eventually wipe out all its shipping
- Britain can't be forced out of the war directly, and neither can it be starved out (Royal Navy too powerful, Britain self-sufficient in food, and the USA would never allow it)
Given all that, he's my idea for an optimum Axis strategy given a 1939 POD. It requires the Axis powers to coordinate their broad strategy, but other than that I don't think anything is unreasonable (besides the reasonableness required on the part of Hitler, Mussolini, and the Japanese leadership of course). I propose to you that it would be IMPOSSIBLE for Britain to successfully counter such a strategy if it was employed competently.
POD: Hitler and Stalin recognize the obvious: that any complete partitioning of the Baltic region will make war between Germany and the Soviet Union inevitable. So instead of the OTL doomed-to-fail M-R Treaty, they come up with something much more durable.
The Soviets will annex Estonia, Latvia, and the ethnically Belarusian/Ukrainian areas of Eastern Poland, while Germany will annex the Corridor and the German areas of Western Poland. The rump Poland, however, will be joined to Lithuania in a revived Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, and it, along with Finland, will be made strong armed neutrals, bound by treaty never to align with either Germany or the SU, and to defend themselves with all force from any future invasion by either.
I'm not sure whether Poland would have to be totally defeated as in OTL to accept such terms, but it doesn't matter either way. War with the Soviets is now off the table for the foreseeable future.
Next the WAllies declare war on Germany for carving up Poland, and as OTL Germany occupies Denmark, Norway, and finally defeats France (with so many troops freed up not occupying Poland or garrisoning the border against the Soviets as heavily this goes down even smoother). After annexing Alsace-Lorraine Hitler has now achieved what he set out to do upon becoming Fuhrer: uniting all the German people in one Riech. He doesn't get his lebensraum, but then that was never realistically possible.
Now the hard part: to get the British to recognize Germany's triumph...
Instead of decimating its airforce pointlessly in a Battle of Britain, Germany instead focuses on downing British bombers over Europe. Similarly, the development effort that went into the V-weapons is focused on anti-aircraft technology. Nor does Germany attempt (vainly) to starve Britain with an all-out u-boat offensive, instead directing the bulk of its submarine force to ports in Italy and Italian North Africa. This strategy has numerous advantages:
- Doesn't unnecessarily piss off the British people (the aim, after all, is peace with Britain)
- Doesn't gain Britain sympathy in the US (and hence more lend-lease) by sinking American ships and flattening British cities
- Minimizes German aircrew and aircraft loses, while maximizing Commonwealth losses
- Doesn't 'teach' the British anti-u-boat-warfare in home waters
Germany's best and only strategy for convincing Britain to give up the war, IMHO, is an all-out North Africa / Middle Eastern / South Asian offensive in concert with Italy and Japan, aimed ultimately at threatening and if need be ending the British hold over India and the Persian Gulf. To this end Hitler first makes clear to Mussolini that he won't be starting any inconvenient wars in the Balkans, and will instead be richly rewarded with a reborn Roman Empire in Egypt and the Levant if he follows along and all goes to plan.
Step one is an invasion of Malta, which should be easily achievable at this date, given the total concentration of German and Italian energies. With a sea route from Italy to Libya mostly-secure (far more so than OTL), Germany with Italy in tow strikes out across the desert for Egypt. This is a tall order, and will require a huge logistical effort, but with *ALL* of Germany and its allies effort focused on the task it should be a slam-dunk. The U-boat fleet will meanwhile focus on destroying British shipping in the Med, out of reach of most British air cover. Suez should be in Axis hands, and the Eastern Mediterranean an Axis lake, by the end of 1941 at the latest (although exactly when doesn't matter, so long as its the inevitable outcome which I think it is).
Meanwhile, Japan needs to not commit hari kari by attacking the US, and instead strike for the Southern Resource areas as OTL but bypassing the Philippines. Again, with resources freed up by not being at war in the central Pacific, and not occupying the Philippines, the Japanese should have an even easier time of conquering Southeast Asia.
Britain is now in what I think is an unsalvageable no-win situation:
- Suez and the Strait of Malacca are both in enemy hands: all supply to India and the Gulf has to go either around the Cape or around Australia
- German and Italian armies advancing toward Iraq and the Gulf, now with another overland supply route through Yugoslavia-Turkey-Syria
- Pro-Axis regimes in Iraq and Persia, which Britain is probably now uncomfortably occupying
- Japanese army advancing through Burma if not already in India proper
- India on the edge of open revolt if not already there
- The Soviets have every incentive to join in on the Axis side and take a slice of Persia and Afghanistan.
...Britain might pointlessly drag things out to the bitter end, or it might see the writing on the wall and settle early, but it certainly can't win once Southern Asia is totally isolated and being advanced upon from all sides.
So in the end:
- Germany, besides its thousand year reich, and domination of Western Europe, likely now has an EXTREMELY strategic petroleum empire in the Persian Gulf, and the perfect place to unload Europe's unloved Jews: Italian Palestine!
- Italy has an Eastern Mediterranean empire including Libya, Egypt, Palestine, and likely the whole of the Horn of Africa
- Japan has its own expanded empire in SE Asia complete with secure-ish resource supplies (the USA could trounce it still, but it's hardly likely to attack unprovoked)
- The Soviet Union have an extended and (crucially) secure Eastern border, and may have picked up territories to its south, all at practically no cost to itself
- France has its Empire back intact, albeit at the cost of its pride
- Britain (likely) still has its Dominion allies and its Sub-Saharan African empire, but it faces the scary prospect of a Europe dominated by one power, and has lost its most populous possessions (in South Asia), and its most profitable (in the Gulf)
- India has its independence, likely with a Fascist-type government
...sooooo... Is there any way for Britain to counter such an Axis strategy / prevent them from achieving (Old) World Domination?
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