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kernals12

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I imagine right after the exchange, the US will look weak and feable as they just stood by as the Soviet Union has just launched an unprovoked war on its neighbor. But soon it will greatly weaken Moscow. They will have occupy a country much bigger than their own filled with people who hate them. China will probably descend into warlordism and Henry Kissinger will tell Chiang Kai-Shek to "go for it". The Soviets will be forced to dedicate a lot of troops to pacifying China thereby drawing away forces from Europe. I don't think NATO will try anything, but it will make it that much harder to put down revolts in the Warsaw Pact.
 
Revisiting this thread due to another question...
Assuming that the Soviet Union occupies the PRC but, expectedly, has tremendous difficulties in rooting out resistance, while the Chinese economy does not experience Deng-like reforms, what happens to British Hong Kong and Kowloon? Could its handover to the PRC be delayed? If the situation in mainland China remains unstable for very long, could the British decide to hand it over to the RoC regime in Taipei instead?

Britain was required by treaty to return the New Territories, without which the rest of Hong Kong wouldn't be viable. So it would be difficult to keep it past 1997.

Britain recognized the PRC as the legitimate government of China back in 1950, but if the mainland has collapsed, Britain could recognize the ROC instead.
 
Wasn't China more hostile to the West (including America) at this point, considering there was something of a detente between the USSR and USA? In effect, the West would just have to sit back and enjoy the popcorn, and not help either.
 
The Soviets would win due to the PLA having massive logistical problems as well as being technologically inferior to the USSR. However the USSR wouldn’t occupy China, because they couldn’t. What would happen is that Tibet and Xinjiang become independent countries with Soviet installed Governments. Mongolia (which was a Soivet pupet during this time) would annex Inner Mongolia. Also Manchuria might become a demilitarized zone. Also the PLA would be forced to have a cap on how many men they can enlist, similar to how the German Army could only have 100,000 men in their army following WW1. The result of this is a severely weakened China that would never become the powerhouse it is today. Also the Chinese Government might've been overthroughn as a result of them loosing the war. Also while the war would weaken the Soviets, they would also gain two client states from it as well as quite a bit of prestige so it’ll probably even out.
 
The North is cut off from supplies with the Soviets and Chinese killing each other. Hell you might even see the US and South Vietnamese invade the North and Unite Vietnam under the South.

Yes, Nixon would take the opportunity to dust off the Pentagon’s more aggressive options. Likely an invasion North at least half way.

The North will be begging to come to the peace table for a Korea like peace ironically enough because with the world and China/USSR distracted the barriers to acting are suddenly gone and the international press will be distracted.
 
there's a chapter on this in "Cold War Hot". In it, the Soviets are pushing forward rather rapidly, things bog down, the two sides start trading tactical nuclear strikes, then both sides pause as a frightened west demands a ceasefire before a full scale atomic war breaks out, a negotiated settlement allows the Soviets to withdraw 'with honor', the world starts recovering....
 
In 1970 the Chinese hand ~75 nuclear weapons, the Soviets >11,000. Some Soviet cities in Siberia and on the Pacific coast might get a hit delivered by Chinese bombers, then again the Soviet air defenses against what the Chinese had were decent. The Chinese have no shot at any sort of useful counterforce strike (sure possibly an airbase or three taken out or some missile silos). Tactical use possible, but the minute they pop one off the Soviets use tacnukes like M&Ms. Strikes against European Russia are, of course, something they can attempt but again are unlikely to succeed. If the Chinese get in to the countervalue game, the Soviets are going to respond massively -the USSR simply cannot lose face and trade one for one (OK you hit Volgograd we'll just take out Shanghai).
 

Jack Brisco

Banned
OTL around that time the Soviets informally sounded the USA out re nuking China. We said that wouldn't be a good idea. ITT don't see the Soviets using nukes unless the Chinese try to launch a strike out of desperation. Keep in mind that the fallout goes from west to east, affecting Korea, Japan, part of the Soviet Far East, and potentially Alaska/Canada/NW USA.

China in 1969 was going through a good deal of turmoil with the Cultural Revolution. This could hamper a PRC response to a Soviet invasion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_Revolution

Soviets could go for a limited campaign, maybe a thrust on Beijing. They might style themselves as liberators, freeing the people from the clutches of the Red Guards. Bringing food would be a big plus here. Get to Beijing, install a compliant government, confiscate the nukes, take some buffer zones.

As others have said, PRC has numbers but the Soviets have the equipment.

Long as nukes aren't used believe the USA would stay neutral, due to the detente between the USA and the Soviets.
 

kernals12

Banned
OTL around that time the Soviets informally sounded the USA out re nuking China. We said that wouldn't be a good idea. ITT don't see the Soviets using nukes unless the Chinese try to launch a strike out of desperation. Keep in mind that the fallout goes from west to east, affecting Korea, Japan, part of the Soviet Far East, and potentially Alaska/Canada/NW USA.

China in 1969 was going through a good deal of turmoil with the Cultural Revolution. This could hamper a PRC response to a Soviet invasion.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cultural_Revolution

Soviets could go for a limited campaign, maybe a thrust on Beijing. They might style themselves as liberators, freeing the people from the clutches of the Red Guards. Bringing food would be a big plus here. Get to Beijing, install a compliant government, confiscate the nukes, take some buffer zones.


As others have said, PRC has numbers but the Soviets have the equipment.

Long as nukes aren't used believe the USA would stay neutral, due to the detente between the USA and the Soviets.
The Chinese have a much much bigger army. There is simply no way the Russians could win this war without resorting to nuclear weapons.
 

Jack Brisco

Banned
The Chinese have a much much bigger army. There is simply no way the Russians could win this war without resorting to nuclear weapons.

In numbers, indeed, the People's Liberation Army was bigger than the Red Army in 1969. But the Soviets were better equipped, had a much more capable air force, and had better logistics. Found an interesting article re a possible Soviet-Chinese conflict.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/t...-military-raided-russian-border-outpost-24708
 
The overall plan was that the PLA and local militias would combine for a guerilla campaign. How effective this would be is difficult to say, in the short term and I expect while the fighting is going on conventionally, the Soviet response to any partisan activity will be brutal. Any Chinese territory that becomes Soviet territory will be "pacified" and anything going on in the territory administered by the new "friendly" government in China, well that is their problem.
 

Khanzeer

Banned
Can someone comment on how much Soviets might draw from the 1945 manchurian and 1939 khalkin gol experiences ?
 
South Vietnam reunites the entirety of the nation under Saigon's government. Laotian and Cambodian insurgencies subsequently fail. Portuguese might be able to retain their Empire, Rhodesia and South Africa are firmed up.
 
So, basically, what if the geopolitical divorce between the USSR and Maoist China in the late 1960's had actually escalated to war, rather than being isolated to a few border skirmishes?
Which side would be most likely to win?
From the looks of it, the PRC had a large army on paper, but i hear it was plagued by lack of experience and proper equipment, not to mention the lack of nuclear weapons. In comparison, the USSR and the Warsaw Pact had all three.
From where would the Soviet Union and associated WarPac armies attack China? I could see a massive-scale pincer movement with one army converging into the Chinese Plain from Manchuria and another crossing Xinjiang and Gansu to attack the west. Meanwhile, what sort of defensive strategies could China adopt?
Another consideration is that something like Project 571 might be slapped together by some in the PLA if things kick off.

How will associated states in Asia react?
Xinjiang seems likely to be detached from China no matter the outcome. I'm unsure as to the inclinations of the Tibetan independence movement -- could we see the Soviets sponsor a Tibetan rebellion, but one primarily socialist and detached from the Dalai Lama?
The Soviets are India's allies and are trying to appear at least somewhat conciliatory towards the west. Letting the Dalai Lama have his country back seems reasonably likely.

I'm also very curious about the possible stance of North Korea and Vietnam.
I could see the Red Army rushing to Pyongyang after securing Manchuria to keep South Korea and their American patrons from getting any funny ideas.
Restating that North Korea is under their nuclear umbrella is probably sufficient.

Vietnam, meanwhile, could be affected by her sponsor states fist-fighting each other to the north -- could this mean that South Vietnam survives in the Mekong Delta region? I doubt Saigon could hold on to the pre-war equal division of the country, considering that the Tet Offensive already happened a year before, too.
Tet wiped out the offensive capabilities of the NLF. The fall of South Vietnam came pretty much entirely via the conventional operations of the NVA, which has now lost almost all its arms imports (which it was really dependant on as seen in 1973 when mining a single harbour brought the country to the negotiating table). South Vietnam meanwhile has a lot more breathing room, and so Vietnamization is probably properly implemented.

Better question is if the US can justify pulling out when a literal apocalypse is brewing a little to the north.

Would the RoC in Taiwan make a second try at Project National Glory?
Good chance of it.

What about India? Would they see this as an opportunity to solidify their claims on Aksai Chin and Arunachal Pradesh?
Absolutely, as well as to reignite Tibetan resistance.

What would be the long-term geopolitical effects?
Soviet attention and funds would have to be strictly diverted to the war with China, which could hamper their ability to fund far-left insurgency movements in the "third world". On the other hand, eliminating Maoism as a competing, sometimes American-friendly ideology could serve Soviet objectives well. Any thoughts on how the dynamics of the Cold War would change?
That was the case only after Nixon and Mao became BFFs. Prior to that it was Mao that was pressing the hardest for the expansion of Communism by military force. And after that the Soviets became more aggressive as to compete with China.

Tensions would run higher than at any point in OTL during the liquidation of China, but in the long term East-West relations might be more stable.

What are the effects on China in specific?
Lin Biao could be propped up as a pro-Soviet satrap in China in case of Soviet victory, but how stable would his position really be?
Depends on if the country was nuked before he comes to power.

Would China still enact economic reforms like OTL's?
Probably not if its a glowing parking lot.

It seems like it'd depend on who's lucky to survive the imminent purges of Mao or the following purges of the Soviet occupation force, but would the Soviets try and prop up China's command economy?
They would "try". A better question is if they honestly do all they can or if they make a show of some token efforts.
 
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