WI: Sino-Soviet-Indian invasion of Pakistan, 1981

I know this sounds absurd, and it is, but it is a situation that has emerged in a Cold War forum game I'm running (Pakistani player has amassed troops at borders of Afghanistan and India and is holding Chinese military advisors hostage, and intends to burn down the capital in the event of invasion.)

I'm most interested in what would happen within Pakistan itself in the event of an invasion, what sort of separatist trends and internal political forces would emerge. The Soviets in game are to occupy the Pashtun regions of the country while the Chinese and Indians intend to occupy the rest (obviously none of this would be a permanent occupation, just done in the course of defeating Pakistan.)

Also I operate on the assumption that the US and UK won't respond with ground troops, which is also quite unlikely, but that's the situation that has emerged.
 
Nope, that's still WWIII bait.
And no way for the Chinese and Indians to cooperate, even against Pakistan, ignoring the fact that early '80s PLA has no logistic capability to project outside the country, at all.
Look at what they did in Vietnam
 
Why does India want to actually occupy Pakistan? IOTL they've been content with relatively minor border adjustments even in situations like in 1981 where Indian armour was on the outskirts of Lahore.

As marathag says, it's highly unlikely India would want to cooperate with China, which in 1981 does't have this sort of power projection capacity. Also India is Soviet friendly, but not to the extent of actually inviting a Soviet presence in the subcontinent.
 
I'm aware all of this is basically impossible IRL. But it's what the players have decided to do.

I'd also actually be interested to know what the political ramifications would be in India, since Indira Gandhi wasn't the most popular politician that country had, and as noted an expansion of Soviet influence would scare a lot of parties.
 
I'm aware all of this is basically impossible IRL. But it's what the players have decided to do.

I'd also actually be interested to know what the political ramifications would be in India, since Indira Gandhi wasn't the most popular politician that country had, and as noted an expansion of Soviet influence would scare a lot of parties.

OK if we're handwaving how we get there...

Militarily this shouldn't be a contest. The Indian Army smashed Pakistani forces in 1971, and they will likely do so again.

The political situation gets...interesting. The occupation of the Pakistani Punjab and Sindh will likely be extremely bloody, there will be huge concerns about Soviet involvement...

Now IOTL, the Indian Army establishment thoroughly disliked Indira Gandhi, but held their noses during the Emergency and stayed in their barracks. But in a situation where Indian troops are bogged down in a bitter occupation of Pakistan you might well see some of the Generals letting their misgivings affect their professionalism.
 
The political situation gets...interesting. The occupation of the Pakistani Punjab and Sindh will likely be extremely bloody, there will be huge concerns about Soviet involvement...
What if the Chinese were to occupy Punjab? It seems that would remove some of the natural animosity Indian troops would have toward Pakistani citizens and vice-versa.
 

longsword14

Banned
What if the Chinese were to occupy Punjab? It seems that would remove some of the natural animosity Indian troops would have toward Pakistani citizens and vice-versa.
Why would China bother to got to war? How did India and China become buddy-buddy enough to allow China as an ally? Chinese armies in Punjab? This distance in between is enormous and has the world's largest mountain range in between.
 
Why would China bother to got to war? How did India and China become buddy-buddy enough to allow China as an ally? Chinese armies in Punjab? This distance in between is enormous and has the world's largest mountain range in between.
VIA India.

(Again, yes, all this is absurd, which is why I'm interested in the ramifications of all this)
 
What if we consider Pakistan .... one region at a time?

Consider that Punjab is "the bread basket of India" and that Sikhs have been fighting against Muslim rule for centuries. The control the Punjab, Pakistan had to convert thousands of Sikh farmers to Islam or deport them.
Sikhs might welcome communist military support to regain control of the best farmland on the Indian sub-continent.
China can always use new farmland.
Though I suspect that Russia's biggest objective would be a warm-water port.

Not sure if any central government has ever controlled the "tribal lands" along the Pakistani/Afghan border.
 

longsword14

Banned
@riggerrob The number of Sikhs in Pakistan by 1981 is minuscule. During partition a large number crossed the border (not that they had a choice) into India where they have a majority in Punjab. War for purposes listed above is not enough. New Delhi does not think that way and only they can declare war.
 
What if the Chinese were to occupy Punjab? It seems that would remove some of the natural animosity Indian troops would have toward Pakistani citizens and vice-versa.

So China is going to occupy the Pakistani state that takes up most of the Indo-Pakistani border?

I get that you know that the entire situation is absurd...but that also means its really hard to find plausible justifications
 
@riggerrob The number of Sikhs in Pakistan by 1981 is minuscule. During partition a large number crossed the border (not that they had a choice) into India where they have a majority in Punjab. War for purposes listed above is not enough. New Delhi does not think that way and only they can declare war.

And New Delhi in the early 80s is distinctly worried about Sikh nationalism. It wouldn't do anything to encourage it.
 
Just took a peek at the forum. Everyone there is pissed due to "gung-ho assholes" starting WWIII in Pakistan. x'Dx'D
Aye, and perhaps the worst part is that those "gung-ho assholes" are still defending their stupidity, seeing absolutely nothing wrong with a joint Sino-Soviet-Chinese invasion of Pakistan and pointing to the military exercise that India held in 1986/1987.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Brasstacks

Of course there are always hypothetical plans being drawn up (Operation Brasstacks, Operation Unthinkable, Operation "Unmentionable Sea Mammal") that never see the light of day, since military exercises don't simulate real life and aren't always meant to be realistic. Also Indira Ghandi was deeply unpopular especially among military personnel in India. If she would start to send soldiers to die in some absurd war to occupy all of Pakistan, large parts of the army could have very well rise up against it, especially since in this ridiculous scenario India would be inviting a Chinese/Soviet presence in Pakistan as well. Besides that, the rest of the Asian countries likely would have turned anti-India/China/USSR when they see their armies marching off together into Pakistan.

And New Delhi in the early 80s is distinctly worried about Sikh nationalism. It wouldn't do anything to encourage it.
Also that, besides alienating just about every country close to India, the support for Sikh nationalism from the global Sikh community would skyrocket if Indira Ghandi would drag India into costly nonsensical wars.
 
India and the Soviet Union together I can barely imagine. If the two powers were sufficiently unhappy with Pakistan in the early 1980s, they might well have gone to work.

But China? During this part of the Cold War, Pakistan was arguably the only close ally that China had, a critical counterbalance against India but also against the Soviet Union. Why would China do this?
 
But China? During this part of the Cold War, Pakistan was arguably the only close ally that China had, a critical counterbalance against India but also against the Soviet Union. Why would China do this?
In game the Chinese player decided to clandestinely sabotage Pakistan's assistance to the Mujahideen as a means of helping reconcile Sino-Soviet relations, and when the Pakistani leader got wind of this he issued an order to hold Chinese military advisors in the country hostage (since they were the ones doing the sabotaging by giving the Mujahideen broken ammunition and such.) That was the pretext China used for its involvement in the invasion.
 
Top