WI: Sino-Japanese alliance?

[DominusNovus]

After 1900, what is the best way for Japan and China to form a firm and lasting alliance, comparable to how Britain and France eventually became reliable allies, after centuries of hostility? Feel free to institute this at any point in the century. Note: they should be closer allies to each other than other major powers (so a nationalist victory in China where both states become allies of the US doesn’t count, unless they see each other as more important allies than the US is to either of them).

Subsequently, what is the the likely result of such an alliance?

 

[steamboy]

You'd have to go back further, don't forget the first Sino Japanese war was fought in 1894 - 1895 when all the powers in the region were quite happily carving up the Chinese Empire and Japan wanted a slice. And there's the whole issue of them having warred etc in the past.

 

[Richard V]

Chinese modernization would have to be much more successful. Perhaps they do well in the Sino-French War. This would give Japan second thoughts about warring with China and instead see it as a useful ally against European powers in general and Russia in particular. Perhaps they switch focus from expansion in Korea toward elsewhere like the Philippines.

Edit:

I forgot this is the post 1900 forum. I would have to say probably the only way this is going to happen is if Japan loses big in the Russo-Japanese War. Even then it would be uncertain.

 

[DominusNovus]

You'd have to go back further, don't forget the first Sino Japanese war was fought in 1894 - 1895 when all the powers in the region were quite happily carving up the Chinese Empire and Japan wanted a slice. And there's the whole issue of them having warred etc in the past.

Chinese modernization would have to be much more successful. Perhaps they do well in the Sino-French War. This would give Japan second thoughts about warring with China and instead see it as a useful ally against European powers in general and Russia in particular. Perhaps they switch focus from expansion in Korea toward elsewhere like the Philippines.

Edit:

I forgot this is the post 1900 forum. I would have to say probably the only way this is going to happen is if Japan loses big in the Russo-Japanese War. Even then it would be uncertain.

Well, both are pretty close to 1900, so I won't object to fudging the the dividing line - thats the problem with discussing a topic around the dividing line.

 

[naraic]

In the 1870s-1890s the unequal treaties agreed to by Japan when opening up was something that was very much resented by the Japanese. China had their own problems with having unequal treaties force upon them. Its a 19th century pod but how does this look?

During the Franco Prussian war the Japanese enacted a neutrality declaration that was badly written. They wanted to change their neutrality declaration later in the war (due to French ships attacking German merchants in Japanese waters which was allowed under the Japanese neutrality declaration.) France USA and Britain all essentially Japan you gave us your definition of neutrality. You don't get to change it without France and Germany both giving you permission.

Could we see something during the Sino French war (where Japan tried to bring in a new neutrality declaration but was told they weren't allowed to because France wasn't actually at war with China).

Let's say Japan bring in the neutrality declaration they wanted to where they don't sell coal to belligerents.

France comes in and says what their diplomats informally expressed when Japan thought about a neutrality declaration "No. We are not at war with China, you don't get to be neutral, you have to trade with us under the unequal treaties."

Japan then decides we can refuse to sell France coal if we want to and walks away from unequal treaties with France.

France tries to enforce the unequal treaties by shelling a Japanese port.

Japan ends up as a cobeligerent with China in a war against France.

Thsi formalised into a Sino Japanese alliance.

 

[Richard V]

In the 1870s-1890s the unequal treaties agreed to by Japan when opening up was something that was very much resented by the Japanese. China had their own problems with having unequal treaties force upon them. Its a 19th century pod but how does this look?

I don't see Japan joining China in that war. IOTL it was itching to take advantage of a distracted China to involve itself in Korea, That and the threat of Russian intervention were factors that forced China to end the Sino-French War even though it's army was doing okay. Japanese military modernization was yet untested. I think they would be cautious against France especially since they had little to gain from fighting them at this point.

 

[naraic]

I don't see Japan joining China in that war. IOTL it was itching to take advantage of a distracted China to involve itself in Korea, That and the threat of Russian intervention were factors that forced China to end the Sino-French War even though it's army was doing okay. Japanese military modernization was yet untested. I think they would be cautious against France especially since they had little to gain from fighting them at this point.

I do agree but France was behaving in a very arrogant way at this time. Something could happen very easily.

 

[Canuck Wingnut]

I'm intrigued by the idea of a Japan defeated in the Russo-Japanese War teaming up with China to try and get revenge, maybe by joining the Central Powers in WW1... I don't know enough about the region to say how plausible the idea is, but I have a feeling that a Pacific region dominated by that bloc would be interesting- and probably deeply unpleasant.

 

[raharris1973]

It shouldn't be impossible with 20th century PoDs even after 1 Sino-Japanese war. NATO happened between former belligerents. Heck, the Axis Pact happened between former belligerents.

 

[schai]

Alliance would happen in 1920s.

This would be the scenario:

In OTL, Wang Jingwei had lost control of the KMT to Chiang Kai-shek in late 1925.

What if someone from Chiang's camp had approached Wang and warned him about Chiang's plan. Without military support, there was little Wang could do to prevent it. At this moment, his wife suggested to him that he could approach Japanese for help. So he did. He informed Japanese about KMT was about to launch The Northern Expedition with Soviet support.

After careful consideration, Japan decided to side with Wang and sent him the support which he needed to eliminate Chiang and took over KMT.

Wang started his Northern Expedition with Japanese military support.

He signed an alliance pact with Japan. This alliance would last as long as he lives

There would be no Mukden incident.

China would slowly become part of Japanese empire.

I am not sure about the reaction from British, American and Soviet.