WI: Silesia and Pomerania remains in the GDR

WAllies wouldn't allow entire Silesia and Pomerania to stay in any Germany even if USSR didn't take eastern poland and wasn't at war whatsoever. Poland would get Upper Silesia, Danzig and some border counties of Pomerania (that was the Polish gov-in-exile demands and WAllies would probably accept them). Poland needed industry even more than Eastern Prussia.

Stalin would leave even less to GDR if Red Army doesn't go up to Rhine. Basically why he pushed for Oder-Neisse Polish-German border was because he wasn't sure about his foothold in Germany compared to Poland and he had a great opportunity to deepen Polish-German antagonism - make Germans more angry on Poles for "stealing" their land.
Could not Poland get something else than land from Germany? What about patents, labour, reparations?
 
Poland would likely want Germany east of the Oder-Neisse line to be demilitarised. Perhaps some international agreement supported by France, UK, USA, SU and Poland could be made. There might be a large faction in the SU supporting such a initiative too, due to invasions coming from the West(Crusaders, Varangians, Swedes, Lithuanians, Poles, Napoleon, Hitler).

DDR would maybe have to give something else than land in such scenario? Perhaps DDR could have extensive reparations to Poland?

All of East Prussia sounds like a good bet. While Stalin really wanted a safer bet for Baltic Sea access (i.e. Kaliningrad), if he considers Poland secured under Soviet interests, he might just hand the entirety of the region to them, not just the southern portion.
 
All of East Prussia sounds like a good bet. While Stalin really wanted a safer bet for Baltic Sea access (i.e. Kaliningrad), if he considers Poland secured under Soviet interests, he might just hand the entirety of the region to them, not just the southern portion.
That can have some interesting implications as the Russians who populated Kaliningrad Oblast could end up somewhere else, and at nearly a million in number they could for instance... Make Latvia or Estonia majority Russian.
 
All of East Prussia sounds like a good bet. While Stalin really wanted a safer bet for Baltic Sea access (i.e. Kaliningrad), if he considers Poland secured under Soviet interests, he might just hand the entirety of the region to them, not just the southern portion.

Maybe the Russians keep the city of Konigsberg, and give the rest to Poland (maybe some slivers to Lithuania).
 
I wonder what happens to 4+2 treaty. I know that Poland wasn't among signatories of this agreement. So, today's polish Borders would be OTL eastern borders (no Kresy), and pre-ww2 western borders? These are great losses for Poland, given the fact that Stalin took the eastern part of Poland and annexed it to Ukraine, Lithuania and Belarus. Sure, if Stalin decide to punish Poles for Warsaw uprising, he could leave Silesia and Pomerania in Eastern Germany.
Stalin does not care for the Poles, moreover he regards them as political and ideological enemies, so it's not that difficult to made up some scenarios.

Some scenarios:
- failure to reach an agreement in Potsdam or earlier on Yalta
- an open Polish rebellion against the Red Army and the Lublin Committee after a successful Warsaw uprising
- successful Valkyrie shortens war for a few months, new German government manages to keep pre-war borders minus Austria in peace talks with Allies
- Morgenthau plan implemented
- Germans victory at Stalingrad extend war, the Anglo-American forces enter Berlin first and reach Oder - Neisse line. Silesia, Pomerania and Eastern Prussia are OTL German Democratic Republic
 
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