WI Shorter ARW?

Inspired by similar ideas to this thread; here's the PoD:

At the Battle of Monmouth, LaFayette leads the initial attack as originally planned, and the British take much heavier casualties; combined with a successful capture of Newport the next month (also unlike OTL), the ultimate result is that Clinton surrenders to Washington by the end of the year.

And so the war ends earlier; first, is the above outline plausible? And second, what are the effects of an earlier American victory?
 
I am not so sure that this would end the war immediately, i.e. lead to the signing of a treaty. Militarily, the British would not be finished, as they certainly retained the power to launch a new campaign in another part of the colonies. They would also still hold New York, giving them a central base of operations.

Politically, I do not think that England will be prepared to negotiate peace with the colonies this quickly. I think it would come across as too great a personal embarrassment to Lord North at this time. For sheer pride I think he would be determined to end the war on a better note than would be possible in 1778. Therefore I would not rule out a Southern campaign, very similar to what we saw IOTL.

On the American side, France and Spain were at war with England for their own reason, and would pressure the colonies to remain in the war as well. Assuming a separate peace was out of the question, I would then expect the continental army to besiege New York, and perhaps launch yet another invasion of Canada.

Or the colonists could, in a Machiavellian turn attempt to negotiate a separate peace with England. That could lead to decidedly cooler Franco-American relations.
 
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I think that a better prospect for an early ARW ending in favor of the colonists could be in 1777, if Washington wins the Battle of Germantown decisively. OTL, it impressed the French a lot, even though it was a defeat for the US. If it is a win for the US, it might be enough to push the British over the edge, combined with the Battle of Saratoga.

The effects of your POD are uncertain.
 
Without NYC the British are in the same position they were in July of 1776, with no significant presence in the Thirteen Colonies. Faced with the choice of doubling down, and attempting to recommence hostilities essentially from scratch while facing France and Spain would seem to be out of the question, at least for now.

My guess: England attempts to make peace with the colonists, but negotiations bog down over the Ohio Valley/ Canadian border. The British continue to support the Indians in the West, and the western frontier is the site of increasingly bloody Indian raids and reprisals. Expect another invasion of Canada through Lake Champlain/Richelieu river. With adequate supplies the Americans could very well hold Montreal, but I would not expect them to get further than Quebec City before they are stopped by British reinforcements.

The war against France starts turning in Britain's favor, and the Royal Navy begins inflicting significant defeats against the French in the Caribbean. The Siege of Gibraltar continues, with the British repulsing several bloody assaults.

Peace negotiations begin in Paris in 1782 after the British recapture most of their Caribbean Islands, and the Spanish realize they cannot take Gibraltar. British cede some islands to the French in the Caribbean, and Florida to the Spanish. The Thirteen colonies get most of what they did in OTL, but a more favorable Northern Border, perhaps establishing the St. Laurence as the boundary.
 
Antipater's scenario strikes me as looking pretty likely, though I don't know if the invasion of Canada would happen in any serious way -- Washington was pretty cold to the idea OTL -- though I can see the Continental Army keeping itself busy in the Western Theater.
 
If the war ends pre 1780, then the US gets Florida in the Peace.

Why would that happen? The Spanish were making excellent progress in West Florida by 1779, though they did not take Pensacola until '81. The Spanish would not have given the areas of Florida they had occupied unless offered something else, since they viewed it as rightfully theirs.

Unless the Colonists invaded Florida themselves, I do not see why the British would just give it to them. The early US was far more interested in the Ohio River Valley than in taking over an ally's rather undesirable territory, so I cannot see why the Continental Congress would launch a Florida campaign.
 
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