WI: Sextus Pompey defeats Octavian in Sicily

[SlyDessertFox]

Very well then, i envisage an empire looking like this;

Rome, Gaul, Italy stay loyal to Agrippa.

Sicily, Sardinia, southern greece and (possibly) his old stomping block Spain goes to Sextus.

Antony retains control of eastern provinces while Africa ( if Lepidus is deposed like i imagine) is divided between Sextus ( Pompeian s still popular their) and Antony.

Thus, Antony is in best poition due to his control of grain and largest part of tax revenue, Sextus controls the Mediterranean trade routs and poses risk to all other parties, Agrippa/senate in precarious position but still have large fleet, army and support, thus making them either a liability or asset to one of the other generals.

And with Antony in the strongest position, and Sextus controlling the Mediterranean, Agrippa has to make a deal with one of them it seems-as he surely doesn't wanna get isolated by both people who can completely cut off Italy from their trade and supplies.

Since you mentioned earlier Agrippa was no fan of Antony, and since Antony would be in the strongest position, I can see with that scenario, Agrippa striking some deal with Sextus.

 

[Archon of Thessaly]

And with Antony in the strongest position, and Sextus controlling the Mediterranean, Agrippa has to make a deal with one of them it seems-as he surely doesn't wanna get isolated by both people who can completely cut off Italy from their trade and supplies.

Since you mentioned earlier Agrippa was no fan of Antony, and since Antony would be in the strongest position, I can see with that scenario, Agrippa striking some deal with Sextus.

I, for one think its more likely that Antony and Agrippa combine against Sextus to crush him and his nuisance navy once and for all. Agrippa could well be more cooperative then Octavian ( and better militarily) due to his more vulnerable position because of his low upbringings and not being related to Caesar. Agrippa just couldn't betray Octavian's memory by allying with Sextus.

 

[SlyDessertFox]

I, for one think its more likely that Antony and Agrippa combine against Sextus to crush him and his nuisance navy once and for all. Agrippa could well be more cooperative then Octavian ( and better militarily) due to his more vulnerable position because of his low upbringings and not being related to Caesar. Agrippa just couldn't betray Octavian's memory by allying with Sextus.

*sad face*

What about Antony striking a deal with Sextus?

 

[Archon of Thessaly]

*sad face*

What about Antony striking a deal with Sextus?

They were in contact and had considered allying against Octavian before so its possible-but ask yourself this:

Do you ally with the man in a weaker position against a man who poses the biggest threat to you?

Or do you defy logic and team up with the strong man against someone who ( at the moment) poses little threat?

I think the answer is clear.

 

[SlyDessertFox]

Ok what about this: both Agrippa and Pompey approach Antony for an alliance against the other. Instead of choosing a side at the moment, Antony offers to mediate, eager to continue his Parthian campaign.

With the help of Antony, the three strike a deal for at least a short period of time. Now what this deal would be, I don't know. Maybe a third triumvirate?

If Antony is really successful, Agrippa and sextus could put aside their differences to crush Antony and then proceed to deal with each other later.

How does that sound?

 

[The Spitfire017]

There are two many damn wildcards in this scenario. Roman political alliances changed so frequently it hard to gauge how things would look at the end.

And I don't think you should throw Lepidus under the bus so soon.
Now, Lepidus was rather bullied into the triumvirate by a united front of Octavian and Antony. With Octavian dead, he also has a choice and leverage with with 14 Legions under his command, and probably very motivated to cover his own ass, so he will be looking for the strongest partner. So, whoever he throws his weight behind would be strengthened in the political maneuverings. I can see him+Legions go to Antony.

Also take into consideration, who has the strongest political support in Rome. There are more Romans than just Agrippa and Sextus.

 

[Velasco]

Ok what about this: both Agrippa and Pompey approach Antony for an alliance against the other. Instead of choosing a side at the moment, Antony offers to mediate, eager to continue his Parthian campaign.

With the help of Antony, the three strike a deal for at least a short period of time. Now what this deal would be, I don't know. Maybe a third triumvirate?

If Antony is really successful, Agrippa and sextus could put aside their differences to crush Antony and then proceed to deal with each other later.

How does that sound?

I don't see Antony acting as a mediator. In my opinion Antony would come to terms with Sextus, maybe betroth his son to Sextus' daughter. The Senate would back Lepidus over Agrippa; Lepidus' name alone would be enough to command many, while Agrippa was an outsider and newcomer. Without Octavian in the picture, he's a non-factor: his best chance of survival is throwing his lot in with the Senate serving under whoever emerges as leader. An aristocratic Triumvirate with Lepidus, Sextus and Antony.

 

[Matteo]

In no way could Agrippa deal on equal foot with Anthony in 37/36.

Agrippa was just the number one among the marshalls of Octavian. Agrippa has not the dynastic and political legitimacy for this.
It is the same as if you imagined Ventidius Bassus becoming imperator in the east if Anthony died in 37.

What would be more realistic is Agrippa striking a deal with Lepidus who was the noblest of the triumvirs. Such as :
- I, Agrippa, become your lieutenant on a less unequal standard than with my friend Octavian. So I will be reckoned as the official proconsul of Gauls for the next 5 years.
- you, Lepidus, get back the spanish provinces.
- we sceal this deal/alliance by a marriage between me and one of your princely daughters (Lepidus' children were born in the 50's and 40's)

 

[SlyDessertFox]

So a triumvirate with Agrippa striking a deal with Lepidus.

 

[Matteo]

Only in part. Agrippa would be the junior partner necessary for Lepidus to more or less balance the power of Antonius.

 

[SlyDessertFox]

Only in part. Agrippa would be the junior partner necessary for Lepidus to more or less balance the power of Antonius.

Ok, and from here, how can Sextus end up triumphant?

 

[Matteo]

I can't figure out how after the battle of Philippi in 42 BCE.

Basically, you would need to have all the main heads of the caesarian party (Anthony, Octavian, Lepidus, but also the other great noble houses allied to them like the Claudii, the Servilii, the Fabii, ...etc, as well as the caesarian marshalls like Agrippa, Statilius Taurus, ...etc, who would never freely bow down to Sextus Pompey) die because it is impossible for Sextus Pompey to defeat them militarily on land : he just has enough means to keep for a long time his fortress of Sicily until someone on the continent is good enough to crush him with superior forces : which Agrippa did in 36.

So you need some kind of plague

 

[SlyDessertFox]

I can't figure out how after the battle of Philippi in 42 BCE.

Basically, you would need to have all the main heads of the caesarian party (Anthony, Octavian, Lepidus, but also the other great noble houses allied to them like the Claudii, the Servilii, the Fabii, ...etc, as well as the caesarian marshalls like Agrippa, Statilius Taurus, ...etc, who would never freely bow down to Sextus Pompey) die because it is impossible for Sextus Pompey to defeat them militarily on land : he just has enough means to keep for a long time his fortress of Sicily until someone on the continent is good enough to crush him with superior forces : which Agrippa did in 36.

So you need some kind of plague

So what if the POD was Philippi?

 

[Agricola]

What i miss a bit in the discussion above is the purpose of this alternate history. Why Sextus should win? What could he do different or better?

- a politically more stable principate?
- a fundamentally reformed republic (even a bigger challenge, if not impossible at all)
- an other, more appropriate (?) form of government like Monarchy or Military Dictature?

Why should Sextus win and why do we believe he would change things for the better?

 

[The Spitfire017]

So what if the POD was Philippi?

Well, with a POD there, you could butterfly away the entire war in Sicily. It all who matters who dies. Just Octavian dies, but Brutus and Cassius defeated, Antony will have to go to Rome (he stayed in the east after the battle in OTL), to both secure power, allies and look for land for veterans. If you have Brutus and Cassius be victorious...you have to figure out how Sextus would react, which again would change the entire political landscape.

You could still have Sextus gain great power without a POD at that battle. A political/military alliance between Antony and Sextus is possible.

What i miss a bit in the discussion above is the purpose of this alternate history. Why Sextus should win? What could he do different or better?

Who said he should win? Purpose of alternate history, as I see it, is speculating what would have occurred if something differently happened. Not who should have won or been defeated. Your idea is borderline teleological. History is amoral.

 

[Archon of Thessaly]

Well, with a POD there, you could butterfly away the entire war in Sicily. It all who matters who dies. Just Octavian dies, but Brutus and Cassius defeated, Antony will have to go to Rome (he stayed in the east after the battle in OTL), to both secure power, allies and look for land for veterans. If you have Brutus and Cassius be victorious...you have to figure out how Sextus would react, which again would change the entire political landscape.

You could still have Sextus gain great power without a POD at that battle. A political/military alliance between Antony and Sextus is possible.



Who said he should win? Purpose of alternate history, as I see it, is speculating what would have occurred if something differently happened. Not who should have won or been defeated. Your idea is borderline teleological. History is amoral.

With respect, the POD for this thread was a victory by Sextus in Sicily-not Phillipi. A victory there would be an entirely different ballgame.

Secondly, i have never actually said that Sextus would win-rather i said he could have won against Octavian in Sicily during the disastrous landing of Octavian's troops.

Thirdly, I have several doubts about Lepidus' ability to remain a major power:
1: In the aftermath of Octavian s victory over Sextus OTL Octavian realized that Lepidus was posing a threat with his 14 legions and visited him. Advancing into his camp, hardly any solders fired on him ( except Lepidus' bodyguard) and shortly afterwards most of his troops deserted Lepidus, disgusted at his lack of action, cowardliness and in realization of who was really in charge. Sextus was a charismatic figure, highly respected among st the Triumvirate troops and stood in stark contrast to lepidus. With his crushing of Octavians fleet he has effectively cut off Lepidus' army from supplies, and this could well be more then enough to provoke a mutiny and large scale defection of Lepidus troops. At best, i can see Lepidus returning to Spain or Africa and being awarded those provinces just to pay him off.

And finally, with Agrippa, Sextus, Antony and Lepidus out of the picture, who could take over in Rome?

 

[The Spitfire017]

With respect, the POD for this thread was a victory by Sextus in Sicily-not Phillipi. A victory there would be an entirely different ballgame.

My thing about Philipi was in response to this question, not your OP:

I can't figure out how after the battle of Philippi in 42 BCE.

So what if the POD was Philippi?

I was pretty much saying that, with a POD there, it would be "an entirely different ballgame." What is the problem?

Secondly, i have never actually said that Sextus would win-rather i said he could have won against Octavian in Sicily during the disastrous landing of Octavian's troops.

I don't understand? Who are you directing this to? I never said he would win either.

 

[Archon of Thessaly]

My thing about Philipi was in response to this question, not your OP:

I was pretty much saying that, with a POD there, it would be "an entirely different ballgame." What is the problem?

I don't understand? Who are you directing this to? I never said he would win either.

I sorry, not at you-at Slydesertfox and other people talking about Sextus' winning.
Oh, a, i though you were changing the subject to phillipi....sorry!

 

[The Spitfire017]

I sorry, not at you-at Slydesertfox and other people talking about Sextus' winning.
Oh, a, i though you were changing the subject to phillipi....sorry!

No problem.

But, to your other points:

Thirdly, I have several doubts about Lepidus' ability to remain a major power:
1: In the aftermath of Octavian s victory over Sextus OTL Octavian realized that Lepidus was posing a threat with his 14 legions and visited him. Advancing into his camp, hardly any solders fired on him ( except Lepidus' bodyguard) and shortly afterwards most of his troops deserted Lepidus, disgusted at his lack of action, cowardliness and in realization of who was really in charge. Sextus was a charismatic figure, highly respected among st the Triumvirate troops and stood in stark contrast to lepidus. With his crushing of Octavians fleet he has effectively cut off Lepidus' army from supplies, and this could well be more then enough to provoke a mutiny and large scale defection of Lepidus troops. At best, i can see Lepidus returning to Spain or Africa and being awarded those provinces just to pay him off.

Alright. So, then Sextus would then have a larger military land force who would be willing to follow him to Rome? It again would be a bargaining chip in forging military alliances, especially with those in Rome or with Antony.

Lepidus safety is Africa, but I can see Lepidus attempt to gain support among those still left in Rome or elsewhere, again trying to cover his own ass. Or, it would make thing simpler for this discussion if he just did things the old fashioned way and fell on his sword, for he is pretty much is disgraced if his entire army mutinies.

And finally, with Agrippa, Sextus, Antony and Lepidus out of the picture, who could take over in Rome?

The survivors Otherwise known as some vague figures who we don't really know much about.

 

[Archon of Thessaly]

No problem.

But, to your other points:






The survivors Otherwise known as some vague figures who we don't really know much about.

Oh god, that means a huge power vacuume......cue chaos and destruction!
Who would inherit Octavian's clientele and supporters? That person could size control. Maybe Maenas or Agrippa?