WI: Serbia defeats Bulgaria in 1885

So, how would this play out in WW1? Would the Assasination of Franz Ferdinand even happen?
With all the changes that would result from this POD it is very unlikely that the assassination of Franz Ferdinand would happen. WWI is still likely to break out however, due to the divisions between the Great Powers.
 
For reference it seems like these would be the boundaries should Serbia be victorious.

If the Bulgarians are defeated, I would not be surprised to see the Turks march in as well. However, the rest of Europe would not take too kindly to such a thing. Maybe a partition of East Rumelia along the Maritsa River?



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I still like my idea of a Pyrrhic victory for Serbia—it gains land that does nothing good for it, prone to Bulgarian-funded rebels like what happened in Macedonia IOTL, while also making major concessions to Austria.

Meanwhile, Bulgaria falls firmly into Russian orbit, especially if the Ottomans invade and take back Rumelia as well. This is great news for Russia—they are closer than ever to the Straits with a Bulgarian semi-vassal.

What does this mean for everyone else? If Russia’s backing Bulgaria more then Britain probably moves to support the Ottomans, which could have butterflies all the way to the Great War!
 
If the Ottomans regain direct authority over Eastern Rumelia and keep Bulgaria as a nominal vassal of theirs - all while maintaining their borders elsewhere - this probably puts the Ottomans in a very good position down the line. The Balkan War of 1912 was pretty close OTL and kind of a fluke, so I could see the Ottomans holding on to most of their European territories more or less.

A very weak Bulgaria that's still a vassal of the Ottomans could perhaps be reconquered by the Ottomans down the line (20th century) in some kind of Balkan War or Great War equivalent.
 
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