WI - Serbia avoids AH occupation?

BigBlueBox

Banned
Maybe the Germans deploy more of their divisions against France and Belgium compared to OTL and the Russians direct more against Austria-Hungary (instead of Germany). This causes the Austro-Hungarian Army to start collapsing much faster than OTL, and Italy and Romania join the war in 1914 against A-H, hastening the demise of the Dual Monarchy.
 
Maybe the Germans deploy more of their divisions against France and Belgium compared to OTL and the Russians direct more against Austria-Hungary (instead of Germany). This causes the Austro-Hungarian Army to start collapsing much faster than OTL, and Italy and Romania join the war in 1914 against A-H, hastening the demise of the Dual Monarchy.
Could the Lake Naroch Offensives be more successful in tying down German and Austro-Hungarian forces?
 
Is there any way that Serbia could've held on against the CP's onslaught in 1914-15? Would POD would be needed for this?

Less agressive grand strategy in that direction on the part of A-H would go a long way into making Serbia's limited manpower and supplies in his logiscally isolated postion last. Maybe have Conrad work more closely with the German General Staff pre-war as part of a broader "East First" strategy for a joint offensive effort against Russia. If Serbia is on a defensive stance and isen't bleeding steadily against Austrian offensives, than she's less likely to hit the point of industrial-manpower collapse.
 

nbcman

Donor
Keep Bulgaria neutral at all costs. Maybe via a more successful Gallipoli campaign that knocks the Ottomans out earlier in 1915 or an earlier and larger Allied force from Thessalonika would forestall Bulgarian entry. Once Bulgaria entered the war on the CP side, Serbia's position was doomed.
 
Keep Bulgaria neutral at all costs. Maybe via a more successful Gallipoli campaign that knocks the Ottomans out earlier in 1915 or an earlier and larger Allied force from Thessalonika would forestall Bulgarian entry. Once Bulgaria entered the war on the CP side, Serbia's position was doomed.
How can we get Bulgaria to remain neutral?
 
How can we get Bulgaria to remain neutral?
There's two ideas in the post you're quoting. Probably the best two, once the war had started.* Get an Entente Army near the Bulgarian border on the Aegean, and that might do the trick.

Even when neutral, they were sympathetic to the CP, and smuggled stuff from the Germans to the Ottomans, but if the latter are knocked out; or the force from Salonika is large, and advances to help the Serbs, then Sofia might decide not to jump in.

*Go back to the Balkan Wars, and there's myriad ways, but then World War 1 as we know it isn't happening.
 
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There's two ideas in the post you're quoting. Probably the best two, once the war had started.* Get an Entente Army near the Bulgarian border on the Aegean, and that might do the trick.

Even when neutral, they were sympathetic to the CP, and smuggled stuff from the Germans to the Ottomans, but if the latter are knocked out; or the force from Salonika is large, and advances to help the Serbs, then Sofia might decide not to jump in.
How would World War 1 be affected by this?
 
There's two ideas in the post you're quoting. Probably the best two, once the war had started.* Get an Entente Army near the Bulgarian border on the Aegean, and that might do the trick.

Even when neutral, they were sympathetic to the CP, and smuggled stuff from the Germans to the Ottomans, but if the latter are knocked out; or the force from Salonika is large, and advances to help the Serbs, then Sofia might decide not to jump in.

*Go back to the Balkan Wars, and there's myriad ways, but then World War 1 as we know it isn't happening.

Eh, I'd say you still have a pretty solid chance of a war that looks very similar to WW I breaking out in the next few years even without the Balkan Wars panning out the way they did. The lack of "free" international markets and imperial targets,the alliance system and regional interests, ect. we're all still there, and a crisis could easily spiral out of control as both Germany and Austria had increasingly fewer and fewer reasons to trust the old international conference system for settling disputes was playing them straight. Now, an Ottomans emerging from the Wars victorious or avoiding them all together means less regional instability in the Balkans; particularly the flood of Bulgarian refugees that stoked anti-Serb sentiments in Sofia, but if anything Serbia would take a stronger stance against Austria
 
There's basically one key factor: Bulgaria needs to be prevented from joining the Central Powers.

There are several ways one could accomplish this. For one, the Entente could offer more generous territorial concessions than they did in OTL. Or some of the CP initiatives in Bulgaria could blow up. (Literally blow up. Early in 1915, Ottoman agents carried out a terrorist attack in a Sofia theater. 4 people were killed, including the son and daughter of two prominent Bulgarian generals. In OTL, pro-Entente figures were framed for the attack...but what if the true nature of the attack was revealed on time? Tsar Ferdinand's regime would not be able to enforce a pro-CP foreign policy in this case, and they might not even particularly want to...)
 
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