WI Serbia acquiesces on everything in 1914?

They couldn't on the point about allowing Austro-Hungarians interfering in the Serbian legal system, of course. IOTL the Serbian government didn't categorically say no to this point, but asked to bring the matter to the Hague. Everyone, including the Kaiser thought that Serbia's response was sufficient to avoid war. Austria-Hungary of course declared war anyway.

Suppose the Serbs had had intel/advance notice that Austria-Hungary would respond to even this humiliating acceptance with war. Might they take a gamble with their sovereignty, and accept every point of the ultimatum without reservation? Would the Hapsburgs accept it, would they follow through with their plans and declare war anyway, or perhaps wait a bit to come up with another casus belli?

If Austria-Hungary still immediately declares war, does the Kaiser honor his blank check?
 
The Germans will honor their blank cheque. Instructions for the Austrian minister at Belgrade were,

I assume that according to the instructions you have
received, you have completed your preparations, so that you
can leave Belgrade immediately with the entire legation,
should the term of 48 hours have expired without effect. The
result of the time allowed for the answer, can only be either
the unconditional acceptance or the refusal (any acceptance,
which contains conditions dr reservations, you are to con-
sider in the light of a refusal).

In terms of Austrian control or direction of the Serbian legal system, the original demand was,

6. to have a judicial inquiry instituted against all those,
who took part in the plot of the 28th June, if they are to be
found on Servian territory; the Imp. and Roy. government will
delegate organs who will take an active part in these inquiries;


The Serbian Response was,

6. The Royal government
considers it a duty to order
judicial proceedings against all
those persons, who were, or
were supposed to be implicated
in the crime of the 28th June
and who would be found on
Servian territory. But the go-
vernment, cannot consent to
the collaboration of organs of
the Imp. and Roy. government,
delegated for this express
purpose, as this would be a
violation of the constitution
and of the law of penal pro-
cedure. But the Austro-Hunga-
rian organs might in some
cases be informed of the
results of the inquiry.





The Austrian Rebuttal to this reply was to highlight that the Serbians had deliberately misinterpreted the demand:


Our demand was clear and
not to be mistaken. What we
asked, was:


1. To institute a judicial
inquiry against those who
participated in the plot.


2. To allow the collaboration
of Imp. and Roy. organs in
the researches to be made for
the inquiry (the word "recher-
ches" was used as contrasting
with "enquete judiciaire*').


We never for a moment
meant to let the Imp. and
Roy. organs take any part in
the Servian judicial procee-
dings; they were to help in
the police researches, which
were to furnish the material
for the judicial inquiry.


If the Servian government
does not understand us, it is
that it will not understand,
for it cannot be ignorant of
the difference between ''en-
quete judiciaire" and simple
"recherches".


No doubt the Servian govern-
ment wishes to avoid control
of any kind during the insti-
tution of the judicial inquiry,
when most unwelcome results
might come to light, and
having no other pretext for
declining our participation in
the police-researches (we might
12
 
They couldn't on the point about allowing Austro-Hungarians interfering in the Serbian legal system, of course. IOTL the Serbian government didn't categorically say no to this point, but asked to bring the matter to the Hague. Everyone, including the Kaiser thought that Serbia's response was sufficient to avoid war. Austria-Hungary of course declared war anyway.

Suppose the Serbs had had intel/advance notice that Austria-Hungary would respond to even this humiliating acceptance with war. Might they take a gamble with their sovereignty, and accept every point of the ultimatum without reservation? Would the Hapsburgs accept it, would they follow through with their plans and declare war anyway, or perhaps wait a bit to come up with another casus belli?

If Austria-Hungary still immediately declares war, does the Kaiser honor his blank check?


Still war, the Austrians were planning to reject the Serbian response even if they conceded on every issue 100%
 
The Germans will honor their blank cheque.
Still war, the Austrians were planning to reject the Serbian response even if they conceded on every issue 100%

In that case, is the Treaty of Versailles even harsher on Germany? Putting 100% of the blame for the war on them was rationalized by pointing at the blank check, and if Serbia had agreed on every single point without reservation*, then AH declaring war may well be seen as no different than claiming right of conquest as their casus belli.

*=Of course Serbia couldn't do this, except maybe in my scenario where they have solid intel from inside Austria-Hungary that they're going to declare war no matter what the Serbian response.
 
In that case, is the Treaty of Versailles even harsher on Germany? Putting 100% of the blame for the war on them was rationalized by pointing at the blank check, and if Serbia had agreed on every single point without reservation*, then AH declaring war may well be seen as no different than claiming right of conquest as their casus belli.

*=Of course Serbia couldn't do this, except maybe in my scenario where they have solid intel from inside Austria-Hungary that they're going to declare war no matter what the Serbian response.

Yeah the German and A-H empires would definitely be seen in a much worse light than OTL, a hard challenge but one achieved none the less. Austria might even collapse earlier as the lack of any reason, good or bad, for starting the war would really eat away at Austrian morale, especially when Hotzendorf starts attacking into the Carpathian Mountains during the winter. If Russia fully mobilized it's possible the A-H empire might've changed plans and accepted peace, but that's a big if and if I were a betting man I'd say they probably wouldn't.
 
The fable about the wolf and the lamb is an appropriate comparison here. The Austrians would dream up another reason or at least would use as an excuse some conflict that would inevitably arise once they start interfering in the internal affairs in Serbia. Especially as the Germans were egging them on (consider the happy reaction of the German comand at the news that the ultimatum was rejected).
 
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*=Of course Serbia couldn't do this, except maybe in my scenario where they have solid intel from inside Austria-Hungary that they're going to declare war no matter what the Serbian response.

The Serbians could have done so and according to some evidence, that around the 24th they were actually close to doing so.
 
The fable about the wolf and the lamb is an appropriate comparison here. The Austrians would dream up another reason or at least would use as an excuse some conflict that would inevitably arise once they start interfering in the internal affairs in Serbia. Especially as the Germans were egging them on (consider the happy reaction of the German comand at the news that the ultimatum was rejected).
So the German military wasn't seeing things the same way as the Kaiser? It seems like he honestly thought AH would be happy with Serbia's response.
 
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