WI: Senator Mitt Romney (January 3rd, 2011 - Present)

Let's say that Mitt Romney won the Republican nomination in 2008, but of course lost the general election. Following his defeat, Romney is elected a United States Senator from Utah in the 2010 US Senate Election in Utah. Who would be the 2012 Republican nominee? Would Romney run for President again in 2016? If he did, would he be able to win the Republican nomination or the general? If this counts as current politics, can it be moved to chat? I thought that because the POD is in 2008, it would make current politics different.
 
Let's say that Mitt Romney won the Republican nomination in 2008, but of course lost the general election. Following his defeat, Romney is elected a United States Senator from Utah in the 2010 US Senate Election in Utah. Who would be the 2012 Republican nominee? Would Romney run for President again in 2016? If he did, would he be able to win the Republican nomination or the general? If this counts as current politics, can it be moved to chat? I thought that because the POD is in 2008, it would make current politics different.

Potential Republican candidates in 2012 include Bob McDonnell, Tom Coburn, John Cornyn, Tim Pawlenty, John McCain, and Rick Perry. McDonnell, Cornyn, or McCain would probably have an easier time uniting the establishment and the Tea Party than Romney, but it would probably be a very good year for Democrats if McDonnell's ethics problems came out during the general election campaign. Romney would probably run for reelection in 2016
 
McCain already had age issues in 2008 when he was 72. His excuse/defense that year was he was the same age Reagan was in 1984.

In 2012 he'll be 76, so I don't think he'll run.

Rick Perry was doing well until (1) the oops moment and (2) Romney outfoxed him in the debate by running to the right of Perry on immigration (Perry of course being one of the only candidates to be pro-immigration). If Romney isn't there to use immigration as a bludgeon against him, then I can see Perry going further.

If Cornyn, Coburn, and McDonnell didn't run OTL I don't see why they would run here.


One big knock-on is that without Romney, the Kochs won't be as pro-GOP. David Koch in particular really liked Mitt Romney (business background and whatnot), as did Bill Koch (who doesn't get along with Charles but does with David). David also was a big fan of Chris Christie (even more than he liked Romney) and was part of a sizable behind-the-scenes draft-Christie effort. Without Romney, maybe there's more of a push for Christie. Charles meanwhile liked Gary Johnson more than Romney, but went along with backing Romney.

Romney's ability to come back in 2016 would partially depend on his 2008 performance I think. How does he win the primary? There was supposedly a VP deal with Charlie Crist for an endorsement in the Florida primary (Crist ultimately betraying Romney and endorsing McCain) so perhaps Crist sticks with Romney and it's Romney-Crist?

Conservatives won't have a distaste for 2008 Romney the way they did for 2008 McCain (or 2012 Romney). In 2008 Romney was Mr Conservative. I think North Carolina, Indiana, Nebraska's Second, and Florida could go red here. A 311-227 win for Obama wouldn't necessarily be a career-killer for Romney.



I think a lot will depend on what Romney does in the Senate. Will he be a calm deliberative senator or an ardent anti-Obama figure? I can't see him being an arch anti-ACA guy considering the origins of the ACA...
 
McCain already had age issues in 2008 when he was 72. His excuse/defense that year was he was the same age Reagan was in 1984.

In 2012 he'll be 76, so I don't think he'll run.

Rick Perry was doing well until (1) the oops moment and (2) Romney outfoxed him in the debate by running to the right of Perry on immigration (Perry of course being one of the only candidates to be pro-immigration). If Romney isn't there to use immigration as a bludgeon against him, then I can see Perry going further.

If Cornyn, Coburn, and McDonnell didn't run OTL I don't see why they would run here.


One big knock-on is that without Romney, the Kochs won't be as pro-GOP. David Koch in particular really liked Mitt Romney (business background and whatnot), as did Bill Koch (who doesn't get along with Charles but does with David). David also was a big fan of Chris Christie (even more than he liked Romney) and was part of a sizable behind-the-scenes draft-Christie effort. Without Romney, maybe there's more of a push for Christie. Charles meanwhile liked Gary Johnson more than Romney, but went along with backing Romney.

Romney's ability to come back in 2016 would partially depend on his 2008 performance I think. How does he win the primary? There was supposedly a VP deal with Charlie Crist for an endorsement in the Florida primary (Crist ultimately betraying Romney and endorsing McCain) so perhaps Crist sticks with Romney and it's Romney-Crist?

Conservatives won't have a distaste for 2008 Romney the way they did for 2008 McCain (or 2012 Romney). In 2008 Romney was Mr Conservative. I think North Carolina, Indiana, Nebraska's Second, and Florida could go red here. A 311-227 win for Obama wouldn't necessarily be a career-killer for Romney.



I think a lot will depend on what Romney does in the Senate. Will he be a calm deliberative senator or an ardent anti-Obama figure? I can't see him being an arch anti-ACA guy considering the origins of the ACA...

Cornyn, Coburn, and especially McDonnell might be more likely to run if Romney doesn't. Actually, now that I think about it, so would Christie. One thing to consider with Rick Perry is that he was supposedly on meds for a back operation that contributed to some of his poor performance. If the back operation gets butterflied away or he decides to wait until 2016 when he's healthier, I could see him being a stronger candidate. I don't think Romney's going to be an extremist in the Senate - it doesn't seem to fit with his personality.
 
Cornyn, Coburn, and especially McDonnell might be more likely to run if Romney doesn't. Actually, now that I think about it, so would Christie. One thing to consider with Rick Perry is that he was supposedly on meds for a back operation that contributed to some of his poor performance. If the back operation gets butterflied away or he decides to wait until 2016 when he's healthier, I could see him being a stronger candidate. I don't think Romney's going to be an extremist in the Senate - it doesn't seem to fit with his personality.

McDonnell's corruption issues would come out if he runs for President, I think.

Cornyn and Coburn, I'm not sure. It seems like the base wanted somebody with more energy in 2012 than those two could provide and Coburn in particular would be attacked as somebody too friendly with Obama.

If Perry avoids the back issues, I'd say he'd be the guy to clinch the nomination UNLESS Chris Christie runs. I'm not sure Perry would be able to beat Obama, but

If Christie gets drafted, he'd be the strongest contender against Obama. Hurricane Sandy would play out pretty interestingly and I wonder if he'll still give Obama the infamous hug TTL.

If Romney manages to build up a presence in the years from 2010 to 2016, I can see the party going back to him if it implodes in 2012.
 
I don't think Romney is presidentially rehabilitated if he loses to about the the same popular vote margin of OTL in 2008. He was a pretty awful campaigner in 2012 and ITTL 2008 no-one will have a looking glass of comparison to OTL. He's far too easily pigeon-holed in 2008 given the zeitgeist of that year. The only reason he's had a late flowering IOTL is because of Trump. He wanted to run in 2016, but didn't get anywhere and had to fall out early in 2015.

McCain will keep running until his health goes. He desperately wanted to be president. I don't think he'd win the 2012 nomination at all, but he'll probably squeeze out Huntsman's fringe moderate candidacy.
 
I don't think it strikes me as completely implausible - the main issue is I can't quite see how he gets a 2010 Senate nomination. He isn't going to primary Bob Bennett (as Lee and others did), though if Bennett retires maybe he runs. Alternatively, maybe Orrin Hatch steps down in 2012, though that might require a larger Democratic Senate majority post-2010 (with Hatch no longer seeing a return to being Judiciary Chair as viable).
 
I don't think it strikes me as completely implausible - the main issue is I can't quite see how he gets a 2010 Senate nomination. He isn't going to primary Bob Bennett (as Lee and others did), though if Bennett retires maybe he runs. Alternatively, maybe Orrin Hatch steps down in 2012, though that might require a larger Democratic Senate majority post-2010 (with Hatch no longer seeing a return to being Judiciary Chair as viable).

It might be easier to have him run for Ted Kennedy's seat in MA, although actually winning election would be harder after moving substantially to the right in 2008. A more plausible Romney '16 timeline would be to have him run successfully for reelection in MA in 2006, run for the Kennedy seat instead of Scott Walker, and establish himself as a sort of Clinton analogue after a Tea Party nominee (Bachmann?) flames out in 2012.
 
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