I've often heard about how if the Japanese didn't fight the Second Sino-Japanese War in the 1930s,the Chinese will bound to come knocking on their doors in the 1940s for Manchuria.So realistically,could the Chinese have won such a war?
I've often heard about how if the Japanese didn't fight the Second Sino-Japanese War in the 1930s,the Chinese will bound to come knocking on their doors in the 1940s for Manchuria.So realistically,could the Chinese have won such a war?
They were about to until the japanese attacked. They could have taken Manchuria but They have a small chance of taking korea and there's no way of getting taiwanThey had the Communists to beat first, Japan was secondary
I've often heard about how if the Japanese didn't fight the Second Sino-Japanese War in the 1930s,the Chinese will bound to come knocking on their doors in the 1940s for Manchuria.So realistically,could the Chinese have tries having won such a war?
Exactly what I thought.A full scale war more likely didn't happen at least until 1970s. Republic of China is have much to catch up. Even if China got serious foreign backing (more likely from both USSR and USA, both superpowers need to contain Japan influence in East Asia and Pacific), Japan still have huge advantages.
I think both countries will have multiple small border wars, India-Pakistan style. Then after both side having nuclear weapons, the fear of MAD will kick in and defuse the tension a bit, again like India-Pakistan relationship.
With the Germans going to war in 1939,German aid except in advisers is probably going to be cut.After that,most of the stuff the USSR produces is probably going towards the Great Patriotic War.Without an actual war between Japan and China,will much of the stuff really go to China?I think realistically,KMT is only going to get much stuff(that are surplus) after the European War.If the war still ends in 1945,I don't think the KMT can get buffed up to actually give Japan a good run for their money in the late 1940s or the early fifties for that matter.Another problem is that China doesn't even have a proper navy at this point.So Japan will have unlimited control over the seas.Both the USSR and USA would be putting huge amounts of pressure on Imperial Japan to cough up Manchuria as well selling all sorts of goodies to the KMT. Both superpowers will be doing it to butter up KMT China to keep em onside or at least neutral in any future superpower squabbles AND greatly weaken a potential regional rival/troublemaker in Imperial Japan. I dont think either superpower can trust Imp Japan enough to think to use em as a counterweight against the other.
If it came down straight to force on force assuming no Pacific Theatre wrecking Imp Japan, but European War giving a massive boost to USSR/USA war tech, i feel KMT China could retake Manchuria by the late 40s/early 50s as secondhand USSR/USA land kit would just straight overpower whatever Imp Japan is fielding.
Imp Japan was doing the whole autarky thing and they did a lovely job in pissing off all their neighbors, so neither superpower is gonna sell em the good stuff.
Had Imp Japan not struck, Chiang woulda had that vital breathing space to properly reform the nation, rebuild the economy, and make "friends" to take on the "evil" Nipponese conquistadors. Imp Japan HAD to attack KMT China or be shortly overtaken economically and politically.
With the Germans going to war in 1939,German aid except in advisers is probably going to be cut.After that,most of the stuff the USSR produces is probably going towards the Great Patriotic War.Without an actual war between Japan and China,will much of the stuff really go to China?I think realistically,KMT is only going to get much stuff(that are surplus) after the European War.If the war still ends in 1945,I don't think the KMT can get buffed up to actually give Japan a good run for their money in the late 1940s or the early fifties for that matter.Another problem is that China doesn't even have a proper navy at this point.So Japan will have unlimited control over the seas.
Would the foreign nations still have embargoed Japan into leaving Manchuria if the KMT started the Second Sino-Japanese War?
Possible,but I think America would have to decide whether this would push China onto the Soviet-bloc.If the US supported Japan,China might become the next India(not Communist,but aligned with the USSR) in the Cold War in order to get military support.Yeah, but would America have sanctioned Japan? OK, serious butterflies are at work here, but if America joins the war in Europe then there's going to inevitably be a US-USSR confrontation. And if that happened, isn't it more likely that America would have sided with the militantly anti-Communist Japan?
A Imperial Japan that didn't launch the Sino-Japanese War will be an entirely different from the OTL Imperial Japan. Also, a Republic of China that not devastated by Sino-Japanese War simply will not be a bigger Taiwan.