WI:Second Sino-Japanese War in the late 1940s.

I've often heard about how if the Japanese didn't fight the Second Sino-Japanese War in the 1930s,the Chinese will bound to come knocking on their doors in the 1940s for Manchuria.So realistically,could the Chinese have won such a war?
 
I've often heard about how if the Japanese didn't fight the Second Sino-Japanese War in the 1930s,the Chinese will bound to come knocking on their doors in the 1940s for Manchuria.So realistically,could the Chinese have won such a war?

They had the Communists to beat first, Japan was secondary
 
I think any offensive by Chinese forces into Manchuria would be crushed by a strong and rich Japan, if if they had unified for some reason. Manchuria was vast and well defended against China, plus the Chinese would have no chance in the air or at sea against Japan.
 
I've often heard about how if the Japanese didn't fight the Second Sino-Japanese War in the 1930s,the Chinese will bound to come knocking on their doors in the 1940s for Manchuria.So realistically,could the Chinese have tries having won such a war?

A full scale war more likely didn't happen at least until 1970s. Republic of China is have much to catch up. Even if China got serious foreign backing (more likely from both USSR and USA, both superpowers need to contain Japan influence in East Asia and Pacific), Japan still have huge advantages.

I think both countries will have multiple small border wars, India-Pakistan style. Then after both side having nuclear weapons, the fear of MAD will kick in and defuse the tension a bit, again like India-Pakistan relationship.
 
A full scale war more likely didn't happen at least until 1970s. Republic of China is have much to catch up. Even if China got serious foreign backing (more likely from both USSR and USA, both superpowers need to contain Japan influence in East Asia and Pacific), Japan still have huge advantages.

I think both countries will have multiple small border wars, India-Pakistan style. Then after both side having nuclear weapons, the fear of MAD will kick in and defuse the tension a bit, again like India-Pakistan relationship.
Exactly what I thought.
 
Both the USSR and USA would be putting huge amounts of pressure on Imperial Japan to cough up Manchuria as well selling all sorts of goodies to the KMT. Both superpowers will be doing it to butter up KMT China to keep em onside or at least neutral in any future superpower squabbles AND greatly weaken a potential regional rival/troublemaker in Imperial Japan. I dont think either superpower can trust Imp Japan enough to think to use em as a counterweight against the other.

If it came down straight to force on force assuming no Pacific Theatre wrecking Imp Japan, but European War giving a massive boost to USSR/USA war tech, i feel KMT China could retake Manchuria by the late 40s/early 50s as secondhand USSR/USA land kit would just straight overpower whatever Imp Japan is fielding.

Imp Japan was doing the whole autarky thing and they did a lovely job in pissing off all their neighbors, so neither superpower is gonna sell em the good stuff.

Had Imp Japan not struck, Chiang woulda had that vital breathing space to properly reform the nation, rebuild the economy, and make "friends" to take on the "evil" Nipponese conquistadors. Imp Japan HAD to attack KMT China or be shortly overtaken economically and politically.
 
Both the USSR and USA would be putting huge amounts of pressure on Imperial Japan to cough up Manchuria as well selling all sorts of goodies to the KMT. Both superpowers will be doing it to butter up KMT China to keep em onside or at least neutral in any future superpower squabbles AND greatly weaken a potential regional rival/troublemaker in Imperial Japan. I dont think either superpower can trust Imp Japan enough to think to use em as a counterweight against the other.

If it came down straight to force on force assuming no Pacific Theatre wrecking Imp Japan, but European War giving a massive boost to USSR/USA war tech, i feel KMT China could retake Manchuria by the late 40s/early 50s as secondhand USSR/USA land kit would just straight overpower whatever Imp Japan is fielding.

Imp Japan was doing the whole autarky thing and they did a lovely job in pissing off all their neighbors, so neither superpower is gonna sell em the good stuff.

Had Imp Japan not struck, Chiang woulda had that vital breathing space to properly reform the nation, rebuild the economy, and make "friends" to take on the "evil" Nipponese conquistadors. Imp Japan HAD to attack KMT China or be shortly overtaken economically and politically.
With the Germans going to war in 1939,German aid except in advisers is probably going to be cut.After that,most of the stuff the USSR produces is probably going towards the Great Patriotic War.Without an actual war between Japan and China,will much of the stuff really go to China?I think realistically,KMT is only going to get much stuff(that are surplus) after the European War.If the war still ends in 1945,I don't think the KMT can get buffed up to actually give Japan a good run for their money in the late 1940s or the early fifties for that matter.Another problem is that China doesn't even have a proper navy at this point.So Japan will have unlimited control over the seas.

Would the foreign nations still have embargoed Japan into leaving Manchuria if the KMT started the Second Sino-Japanese War?
 
With the Germans going to war in 1939,German aid except in advisers is probably going to be cut.After that,most of the stuff the USSR produces is probably going towards the Great Patriotic War.Without an actual war between Japan and China,will much of the stuff really go to China?I think realistically,KMT is only going to get much stuff(that are surplus) after the European War.If the war still ends in 1945,I don't think the KMT can get buffed up to actually give Japan a good run for their money in the late 1940s or the early fifties for that matter.Another problem is that China doesn't even have a proper navy at this point.So Japan will have unlimited control over the seas.

Would the foreign nations still have embargoed Japan into leaving Manchuria if the KMT started the Second Sino-Japanese War?

Now obviously no Pacific Theater would have some serious butterflies, but i'll just have TTL WWII go mostly OTL except maybe being a bit more accelerated as the USA would be focusing solely on the Nazis jsut to keep things simple.

Once TTL WWII is over the USSR and USA will have a ton of snazzy surplus kit to sell cheap/give away. Both powers will likely either support the KMT materially AND/or not trade ANYTHING of military value to the Imperial Japanese. Cuz im sure both superpowers would LOVE a proxy doing the dirty work of weakening an untouched Japan.

KMT China in this scenario is given ASB blessed decade to consolidate, modernize, squelch dissent (cya Mao!). Give the KMT military another 5 years to train with all that snazzy new kit. Poor Kwantung Army wont know what hit them if the Imperials are obstinate enough to try to forward defend instead of just falling back to the natural defensive choke point that is the Yalu River. Now of course the KMT cant touch the islands, and the odds of them breaching the Yalu defensive line will probably be low, but end result Machuria has rejoined the fold no matter what. Of course things will get nasty for Japan if the USN gives the KMT navy a bunch of modern or even obsolete subs to test drive.

A sanctioned Imperial Japan up to the time the KMT is ready to strike (in which they may be lifted), just means their economy is growing slower while China is growing unfettered due to access to global markets/investments. However to be nice, lets say that Imperial Japan for not ganking KMT China at its most vulnerable moment meant sanctions totally lifted and Japan's economy can rebuild somewhat.

Still, it wont save the Kwantung Army getting WTFPWNED by surplus T-34s and late war Shermans, and having the skies contested by P-51s and Yak-3s. Imperial Navy ships better be careful of loitering too close to the coast from all sorts of fun dodging torpedoes.
 
Yeah, but would America have sanctioned Japan? OK, serious butterflies are at work here, but if America joins the war in Europe then there's going to inevitably be a US-USSR confrontation. And if that happened, isn't it more likely that America would have sided with the militantly anti-Communist Japan?
 
Yeah, but would America have sanctioned Japan? OK, serious butterflies are at work here, but if America joins the war in Europe then there's going to inevitably be a US-USSR confrontation. And if that happened, isn't it more likely that America would have sided with the militantly anti-Communist Japan?
Possible,but I think America would have to decide whether this would push China onto the Soviet-bloc.If the US supported Japan,China might become the next India(not Communist,but aligned with the USSR) in the Cold War in order to get military support.
 
A Imperial Japan that didn't launch the Sino-Japanese War will be an entirely different from the OTL Imperial Japan. Also, a Republic of China that not devastated by Sino-Japanese War simply will not be a bigger Taiwan.

What happen next will be mostly depends on the POD itself...

Why in this timeline Japan didn't invade China?

Let say, there is a radical change in Japanese Government and Military. There is a major reform that solve Japan main problem, the various uncontrollable military factions. Moderate leaders being chosen and Imperial military can act as a one, solid organisation. This Japan still military dominated but far less belligerent.

Best case scenario, there will not be war. Both countries normalize relation, Manchukuo become a truly independent with Japan and China as guarantors, Japan return all of its mainland chinese possessions, China give Formosa and other South China Sea small islands to Japan for perpetuity, both nation join the Non Aligned Movement but still maintain extensive trade and diplomatic relation to both USA & USSR, build a regional security alliance together (China take care the Land and Japan cover the Sea), then they both sponsoring an Asian independence movement to the ire of Western nations, in 1980s enjoy an economic boom and became rich developed nations, in 2000s China will eclipse Japan in all things and their relation will be some sort of current OTL USA and UK, after that all Japanese and Chinese will hold hand together in a region-wide group dance singing Queens's "We are the Champions":rolleyes::D
 
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A Imperial Japan that didn't launch the Sino-Japanese War will be an entirely different from the OTL Imperial Japan. Also, a Republic of China that not devastated by Sino-Japanese War simply will not be a bigger Taiwan.

This. Very important points.

Would Germany perhaps back the KMT to take Manchuria? That is a different Pacific war.
 
China will want Manchuria back come Hell or Highwater. Formosa, Tibet, Mongolia, Korea, and any islands are all worth trading away to get back the at the time heavily industrialized, resource rich, Manchurian provinces. Heh, once China has rebuilt its strength they can always later on contest the aforementioned pieces of clay :D

I think a better question is, if Japan was able to rein the military in, are they willing to give back Manchuria, for uncontested and recognized rights to Formosa, Korea, various islands, and normalized trade/relations with the rest of the world.

If KMT China was able to take back Manchuria without extreme bloodshed via war, would they be willing to let bygones be bygones with the Japanese and team up with them to form a Pan Asian front. Or force the issue and try to eject them from Korea and Formosa after they build up for say 10-20 years. Developing a brown water navy able to give IJN ships hell and developing enough land power to actually breach the Yalu defensive line.

An unravaged unified aggressive KMT China would likely be viewed as a greater threat and i wouldnt be surprised if the USA/USSR supports Japan to try to weaken them.
 
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