alternatehistory.com

A while ago, I read The Russian Fascists: Tragedy and Farce in Exile by John J. Stephan. Stephan claims that Japan was preparing for an imminent offensive of the Russian Far East in July and August of 1939, as well as prepping the Manchukuo-based Russian Fascist Party to form a collaborationist government led by White Russian General Grigory Semyonov and RFP Vozhd Konstantin Rodzaevsky. According to Stephan, the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact startled the Japanese into backing down, as they were (optimistically) expecting immediate German support once they invaded.

While this was the first time I'd heard of these plans - and from a very obscure book, no less - it does strike me as believable. So, if there had been no Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact and the Japanese got nominal German aid, or if they decided to go ahead with the invasion anyway, how would things pan out? Knowing the Japanese Imperial Army, they probably grossly overestimated their chances of success. If the Soviets are distracted and Germany (presumably) moves as quickly as it did through Poland IOTL, would Hitler try harder to push a white peace with the Western Allies so he could move in for a Barbarossa in 1940?
Top