WI: Second Polish Republic borders kept post-WW2

What if, for whatever reason, Poland had kept its second republic borders post WW2. How likely is it Stalin would let Poland keep those borders to begin with?

I'm thinking mostly about how this would've affected the minorities in the east - Ukrainians, Belarusians, Lithuanians etc. Would Poland keeping Lviv make the idea of a Ukrainian state much harder to execute, seeing how Ukrainians would be split between two countries and Lviv arguably being the cultural capital of Ukraine? Would the same thing happen to Belarusians?
 
Stalin would most likely let Poland keep its borders if the Red Army isn't there to enforce otherwise. That's the only real way. And even then, the Allies might give in to Stalin and trade away Polish lands inhabited by Ukrainian and Belorussian minorities if he threatened them.

As for how likely Stalin would let Poland keep their lands, not highly likely, not unless the WAllies or the Home Army had at least partially liberated Poland. Perhaps the German garrison was deliberately evacuated from Warsaw during the 1944 uprising on the off chance the Home Army would cause trouble for the Soviets later on.
 
This is possible only in the case that the Soviet Union had no power in Poland. Soviet claims to the kresy, the east of the Second Republic, were founded on deeply-seated ethnographic factors, with large and compact non-Polish majorities in most of this region. Especially since these territories had already been added to the Soviet Union, I see no Soviet authority willingly or easily relinquishing them.

If Poland keeps east Galicia including the city that would be known, now, as Lwow, then there is definitely not going to be a Ukrainian state on this territory. For all we know, there may be extensive post-war ethnic cleansing of Ukrainians from the southeast of Poland, given the terrible and vicious Polish-Ukrainian wars fought during the Second World War. Where these displaced people will go is another question--the Ukrainian SSR, perhaps?

(What does happen to Ukraine, and the Soviet Union?)
 
Poland is not going to keep its 1939 eastern borders--at least not without a military situation so drastically different form that of OTL that the location of Poland's eastern borders will be one of the *less* significant consequences. However, it is just possible that if it had been willing to compromise with Stalin, it could have retained *some* of the eastern territories it lost in OTL, notably Lwow. See my post "Could Poland have gotten better borders from Stalin?" at https://groups.google.com/d/msg/soc.history.what-if/Cgdw3wn15cQ/O7TN3AKfSh4J
 
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