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I was reading through "The Lost Cause: The Confederate Exodus to Mexico" and I saw these quotes regarding Secretary Seward's cautious approach to the situation in Mexico.

His critics included the vocal Secretary of the Interior, James Harlan, and Shelby's cousin,Postmaster General Montgomery Blair, as well as Blair's brother, General Francis P.Blair. Along with General Lew Wallace, the Blairs and Harlan advocated shipping Juárez more munitions instead of simply "goods"and also spoke out for a military attack upon Maximilian's French-sponsored regime.

During July, 1865, after the war was over, Secretary of the Navy Gideon Welles recorded in his diary that Seward felt called upon, at a cabinet meeting of July 14, to defend his cautious policies toward Maximilian and Napoleon III in order "to counteract a speech of Montgomery Blair . . . in which he makes an onslaught on Seward and Stanton, as well as France." Grant and Sheridan joined in serious criticism of Seward.

What if cooler heads do not prevail, and the United States declares war upon the Empire of Mexico in July of 1865? Perhaps a good PoD would be for Hannibal Hamlin to have remained vice president rather than Andrew Johnson becoming VP so that after Lincoln's assassination the Radical Republican might be more inclined to listen to those around him that urged war?

The French didn't order their withdrawal from Mexico until January 31, 1866 so war between the US and Mexico almost certainly means war between the US and the French Empire as well. How will the US fair against the French forces on land and at sea?

With the ACW having only ended two months prior, might this breath life into the idea of Confederate guerrillas fighting the US?
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