OK, let's say that Japan refuses the offer presented by the Perry Expedition. Let's even say that they kill the American delegation, thus ensuring there would be a military confrontation between USA and Japan. In this scenario, rather than letting USA have free reighn over the islands, would the Great Powers of the world decide to carve up Japan into spheres of influence/protectorates/colonies/whatnot as was done with China or Africa? If so, could Russia get a warm-water port from the deal? And which powers do you think would get control over what parts of Japan?