WI: Scramble For Japan?

whitecrow

Banned
OK, let's say that Japan refuses the offer presented by the Perry Expedition. Let's even say that they kill the American delegation, thus ensuring there would be a military confrontation between USA and Japan. In this scenario, rather than letting USA have free reighn over the islands, would the Great Powers of the world decide to carve up Japan into spheres of influence/protectorates/colonies/whatnot as was done with China or Africa? If so, could Russia get a warm-water port from the deal? And which powers do you think would get control over what parts of Japan?
 

RGB

whitecrow said:
OK, let's say that Japan refuses the offer presented by the Perry Expedition. Let's even say that they kill the American delegation, thus ensuring there would be a military confrontation between USA and Japan. In this scenario, rather than letting USA have free reighn over the islands, would the Great Powers of the world decide to carve up Japan into spheres of influence/protectorates/colonies/whatnot as was done with China or Africa? If so, could Russia get a warm-water port from the deal? And which powers do you think would get control over what parts of Japan?
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Considering the Russians were there at the same time trying to do the same thing they're a given at any diplomacy/scrambling that's going to happen. They are just way more likely to take diplomatic offers instead based on OTL behaviour.
 

profxyz

Highly, highly unlikely that the British and French are just going to let Russia take a rich and populous warm water port - Outer Manchuria was all the British and French were prepared to accept at the Convention of Peking. Hokkaido could be ceded, I suppose.

In any case, it's the 1850s. Mass annexation of distant Asian lands was not yet in vogue. More likely the victorious powers would demand treaty ports, dismantling of certain fortresses (e.g. Shimonoseki), guarantees for Christians, extra-territoriality and perhaps the arrest of certain daimyo. French, American and British settlements in Edo and Osaka, and a British colony in Nagasaki could be an idea; unlikely that the French would get anything (seeing as they didn't get anything in China either).
 

zert

If there was a series of treaty ports and enclaves, might this spur a later war like the Boxer Rebellion? A siege of Nagasaki until relieved?:)
 

Tyr

Not an option. The Perry expedition's 'offer' was a pretty minor part of Japan's modernisation and opening. The main impact of the Perry expedition in Japan realising just how outdated and useless its defences were. Even without Japan there and then opening to the US they will still send out feelers to other western powers to try and aquire weapons and knowhow.
 
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