WI: Schwarzenegger Vs. Reiner 2006 for Governor

Filmmaker Rob Reiner considered running for California Governor as a democrat in 2006 against then incumbent Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, but decided not to run for personal reasons. What if he had run? Would he have defeated Governor Schwarzenegger? or would Arnold still be re-elected?
 
I've seriously thought about doing a timeline based on this.

Realistically, I think Arnold would have still been re-elected. The populace of California didn't really turn against him until the budget crisis in 2009.
 
Reiner wins. He was better known than Angelides AND Westly, both candidates with flaws. With better name recognition, either one could've won, but with a better-known Democrat running, they can take it back.
 
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