WI: Scharnhorst not torpedoed?

[Kantai Kessen]

During Operation JUNO in the course of the 1940 Norwegian campaign, the German battleships/battlecruisers Scharnhorst and Gneisenau encountered HMS Glorious and her two escort destroyers, Ardent and Acasta. This did not go well for the British. HOWEVER:

At 17:45, the German battleships spotted the British aircraft carrier Glorious and two escorting destroyers, Ardent and Acasta, at a range of some 40,000 m (44,000 yd). At 18:32 Scharnhorst (as the closer ship) opened fire with her main armament on Glorious, at a range of 26,000 m (28,000 yd).[21][22] Six minutes after opening fire, Scharnhorst scored a hit at a range of 25,600 m (28,000 yd). The shell struck the carrier's upper hangar and started a large fire. Less than ten minutes later, a shell from Gneisenau struck the bridge and killed Glorious's captain.[23] The two destroyers attempted to cover Glorious with smoke screens, but the German battleships could track the carrier with their radar. By 18:26 the range had fallen to 24,100 m (26,400 yd), and Scharnhorst and Gneisenau were firing full salvos at the carrier.[24] After approximately an hour of shooting, the German battleships sent Glorious to the bottom.[23] They also sank the two destroyers. As Acasta sank, one of the 4 torpedoes she had fired hit Scharnhorst at 19:39.[25][26] Acasta also hit Scharnhorst's forward superfiring turret with her 4.7" QF guns, which did negligible damage. The torpedo hit caused serious damage; it tore a hole 14 by 6 m (15.3 by 6.6 yd) and allowed 2,500 t (2,500 long tons; 2,800 short tons) of water into the ship. The rear turret was disabled and 48 men were killed. The flooding caused a 5 degree list, increased the stern draft by almost a meter, and forced Scharnhorst to reduce speed to 20 knots (37 km/h; 23 mph).[27] The ship's machinery was also significantly damaged by the flooding, and the starboard propeller shaft was destroyed.[20]

The resulting events meant that Scharnhorst had to go back to Germany for repairs, and, even worse, while covering this retreat Gneisenau also got torpedoed, this time by a British submarine. As a result, Scharnhorst was out of action for 6 months and Gneisenau for 5 months. Their next major combat operation would be Operation BERLIN in January 1941. For the rest of 1940, only Admiral Hipper and Admiral Scheer would only conduct raids in the Atlantic.

What I want to know is: if the Scharnhorst had not been torpedoed, and she and her sister had come out of killing Glorious and co. intact, how could this have influenced future Kriegsmarine operations? What could two battleships do in the Atlantic in late 1940? How will the Allies respond? What will happen in the war at large? Also, what will this do for that underrated lad, Wilhelm Marschall? (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilhelm_Marschall)

Let the fun begin!

 

[Petr K.]

Marschall had a great chance to attack this convoy ...(http://www.naval-history.net/xDKWW2-4006-19JUN01.htm#:~:text=A convoy of,II during embarkation.)
He would fulfill the operational assignment of the mission, and Raeder would have far fewer reasons to fire him, despite personal antipathy.

 

[Kantai Kessen]

Marschall had a great chance to attack this convoy ...(http://www.naval-history.net/KWW2-4006-19JUN01.htm#:~:text=A convoy of,II during embarkation.)
He would fulfill the operational assignment of the mission, and Raeder would have far fewer reasons to fire him, despite personal antipathy.

Oh dear. That looks like a spicy, lightly defended target. Any idea what was on those ships, and if the Ark Royal force escorting Group II could dash over to help?

So, assuming Marschall smashes that convoy, I guess he keeps command of the German battleship force for the rest of 1940 once they start going into the Atlantic?

 

[Petr K.]

I don't think they can help, they are already quite far away. An air strike is possible, but Blackburn Skua has not been very effective.
(https://codenames.info/operation/alphabet-i/#:~:text=On 7 June the,and 10 armed trawlers.)

 

[Kantai Kessen]

I don't think they can help, they are already quite far away. An air strike is possible, but Blackburn Skua has not been very effective.
(https://codenames.info/operation/alphabet-i/#:~:text=On 7 June the,and 10 armed trawlers.)

So assuming Scharnhorst and Gneisenau destroy the convoy without suffering major damage and then return to Germany, do you think they would join in with Admiral Hipper in her attempted sortie on 24 September? Also, how do you think Marschall would be affected?

 

[Petr K.]

So assuming Scharnhorst and Gneisenau destroy the convoy without suffering major damage and then return to Germany, do you think they would join in with Admiral Hipper in her attempted sortie on 24 September? Also, how do you think Marschall would be affected?

Possible. Operation Berlin will begin much earlier, unless both battleships are damaged, as in OTL, good for the Germans, worse for the Allies.

However, I do not believe that they will not be damaged, too much luck for the Germans, the submarine Clyde could torpedo both battleships on June 20 (the escort consisted of only 4 destroyers) and they would be out of service by the end of the year.

 

[Kantai Kessen]

Possible. Operation Berlin will begin much earlier, unless both battleships are damaged, as in OTL, good for the Germans, worse for the Allies.

However, I do not believe that they will not be damaged, too much luck for the Germans, the submarine Clyde could torpedo both battleships on June 20 (the escort consisted of only 4 destroyers) and they would be out of service by the end of the year.

That sortie might not be made in this scenario. It was IOTL to draw attention away from Scharnhorst as she retreated back to Germany. In this scenario the Germans might be home and dry in Germany before that date.

As for Operation BERLIN ITTL: suppose that Scharnhorst and Gneisenau sortie on September 24th after some refit, without Admiral Hipper. They will be in the Atlantic in the first week of October, after which they will probably raid until the beginning of December and put into France for repairs. They then might sortie again mid-December to work with the now-operational Hipper, seeing them tackle Convoy WS 5A together. Even worse news for Britain.

I also suppose the increased Atlantic raiding gives the Germans more training in the whole business, meaning that the Bismarck affair might go differently. Also, Marschall might get more clout.

 

[Kantai Kessen]

Does anyone have any ideas on this subject?