WI: Saxony Seizes Silesia

This was the legitimate fear of Friedrich the Great at the death of Karl VI, that the Elector of Saxony-king of Poland would seize Silesia if Friedrich didn't. Which is part of why Friedrich invaded. So, let's say that the Saxon elector is interested in doing this, would Friedrich go to war with Saxony-Poland-Lithuania (and all her allies) over Silesia? How might the PLC react to this?
 
Okay there was fear, but the Saxon elector would not have actually gone through with it. Saxony's army was small and poorly trained. Unlike Prussia, Saxony was not hypermilitarized and simply had no chance of success.

The reason there was fear was because the Saxon Elector was married to the eldest daughter of Joseph I. She legally had the best claim to the Hapsburg Realm. Silesia being the richest province of the Hapsburg realm made it the most likely for them to seize. Also Saxony was a Protestant province and Saxony was Protestant as well, the only reason the elector was Catholic was because he converted to become the King of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Therefore if Saxony was going to take anything, Silesia seemed the most likely target. But as I have already explained Saxony had no chance of independently seizing Austria.

If you want Saxony to gain something from the War of the Austrian Succession then there is an alternative. During the war the Saxons originally started on France and Prussia's side. However they switched sides after the war began to militarily favor Austria. So instead of switching sides have Saxony fight on. Then have the Bohemian and Moravian campaigns coordinate better and play out better. The result being the Elector of Bavaria marches into Vienna and the Elector of Saxony secures Moravia. Then in the peace treaty have Saxony be awarded Moravia and something called the Silesian Corridor. Which was a recommendation for Saxony to gain a small strip of Silesia to connect Saxony and Moravia. And the thing is Prussia was in favor of it, because it provided them a buffer against Austria. And voila you have Saxony gaining Moravia and then some, now they ave connected the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth with their German lands.

But if you are determined to have Saxony invade Silesia there are two ways it plays out. Saxony invades and then struggles to conquer Silesia, before the Austrian army arrives and defeats the Saxons. Then the Austrians overrun Saxony. Or Saxony invades and struggles to conquer Silesia. Then Maria Theresa fearing her own army's capabilities accepts Frederick's offer to militarily defend Silesia for her. He invades and overruns Saxony and curbstomps the Saxon army. Then he demands recompense in the form of Julich and Berg, a third of Silesia, or gains in Saxony. Maria Theresa either accepts or she denies and begins a war with Prussia.
 
How much stronger could Saxony have been militarily without butterflies preventing the Austrian succession issue?
 
Okay there was fear, but the Saxon elector would not have actually gone through with it. Saxony's army was small and poorly trained. Unlike Prussia, Saxony was not hypermilitarized and simply had no chance of success.

The reason there was fear was because the Saxon Elector was married to the eldest daughter of Joseph I. She legally had the best claim to the Hapsburg Realm. Silesia being the richest province of the Hapsburg realm made it the most likely for them to seize. Also Saxony was a Protestant province and Saxony was Protestant as well, the only reason the elector was Catholic was because he converted to become the King of the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Therefore if Saxony was going to take anything, Silesia seemed the most likely target. But as I have already explained Saxony had no chance of independently seizing Austria.

If you want Saxony to gain something from the War of the Austrian Succession then there is an alternative. During the war the Saxons originally started on France and Prussia's side. However they switched sides after the war began to militarily favor Austria. So instead of switching sides have Saxony fight on. Then have the Bohemian and Moravian campaigns coordinate better and play out better. The result being the Elector of Bavaria marches into Vienna and the Elector of Saxony secures Moravia. Then in the peace treaty have Saxony be awarded Moravia and something called the Silesian Corridor. Which was a recommendation for Saxony to gain a small strip of Silesia to connect Saxony and Moravia. And the thing is Prussia was in favor of it, because it provided them a buffer against Austria. And voila you have Saxony gaining Moravia and then some, now they ave connected the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth with their German lands.

But if you are determined to have Saxony invade Silesia there are two ways it plays out. Saxony invades and then struggles to conquer Silesia, before the Austrian army arrives and defeats the Saxons. Then the Austrians overrun Saxony. Or Saxony invades and struggles to conquer Silesia. Then Maria Theresa fearing her own army's capabilities accepts Frederick's offer to militarily defend Silesia for her. He invades and overruns Saxony and curbstomps the Saxon army. Then he demands recompense in the form of Julich and Berg, a third of Silesia, or gains in Saxony. Maria Theresa either accepts or she denies and begins a war with Prussia.

I'm not so sure if it's impossible. Poland Lithuania could field 100,000 men and Saxony could field 30,000. It would be primarily Polish Troops that would fight, but it IS doable. . .
 
I'm not so sure if it's impossible. Poland Lithuania could field 100,000 men and Saxony could field 30,000. It would be primarily Polish Troops that would fight, but it IS doable. . .
Would the Sejm go for that? I thought they disliked getting involved in foreign wars?:confused:
If they could get upper Silesia for the Commonwealth? Possibly. A lot depends on performance.

Poland-Lithuania could, but it will not. The Elector of Saxony is going to declare war on Austria as the Elector of Saxony alone. He won't declare war as the King of Poland-Lithuania. The Sejm simply won't support it. Historically the Elector's Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth stayed uninvolved throughout the conflict. The reason is the Elector is not going to fight to expand a Kingdom he was elected to and has o certainty of keeping in the Wettin dynasty after his death. But by expanding his personal domain of Saxony he is guaranteeing that the land stays Wettin.
 
Poland-Lithuania could, but it will not. The Elector of Saxony is going to declare war on Austria as the Elector of Saxony alone. He won't declare war as the King of Poland-Lithuania. The Sejm simply won't support it. Historically the Elector's Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth stayed uninvolved throughout the conflict. The reason is the Elector is not going to fight to expand a Kingdom he was elected to and has o certainty of keeping in the Wettin dynasty after his death. But by expanding his personal domain of Saxony he is guaranteeing that the land stays Wettin.

The Saxon Electors did historically manage to convince the Commonwealth to go to war with them multiple times. The Great Northern War for example. It is possible. After all, August II had 0 chance of claiming Swedish Livonia for Saxony in that instance.

Besides which the Saxon electors were working on making the throne hereditary. August II's plan for that was to use eventual Victory in the Great Northern War to seize Swedish Livonia and leverage that victory to make the Kingship hereditary. It might have worked had he not performed so badly in the war
 
The Saxon Electors did historically manage to convince the Commonwealth to go to war with them multiple times. The Great Northern War for example. It is possible. After all, August II had 0 chance of claiming Swedish Livonia for Saxony in that instance.

Besides which the Saxon electors were working on making the throne hereditary. August II's plan for that was to use eventual Victory in the Great Northern War to seize Swedish Livonia and leverage that victory to make the Kingship hereditary. It might have worked had he not performed so badly in the war

In the Great Northern War the Saxon Elector only declared war as King of Poland-Lithuania if I recall correctly. But yes it is right that the Saxon elector convinced the Sejm to declare war then. But that and the Great Turkish War (which the Commonwealth was already embroiled in) were the only wars in which the Saxon elector fought with Poland-Lithuania. Not several times. And yes the reason the Sejm agreed to attack Sweden was because Livonia was going to the Commonwealth and they thought that with Russia and Denmark allied with them that they would easily defeat the Swedes. But yes historically they did not.

Yes I am knowledgeable about Augustus' attempt. And yes Augustus failed. And then there was the near disaster that was the War of the Polish Succession. All of this only combines to further strengthen the Saxon idea of gaining land for their personal domain of Saxony rather than the elective Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
 
What about if Augustus persuades the Sejm to back him in conquering Silesia (but perhaps leave it vague as to who gets it once he does conquer it), and then holds Silesia like "a ripe plum before the ravens" to ensure a hereditary monarchy in Poland under the Wettins (perhaps under Prince Franz if they're not willing to tolerate a PU with Saxony). Or is Augustus just not that bright?
 
He can not leave it vague. If he says I want your support to conquer Silesia the Sejm is asking whether Saxony or the Commonwealth will end up with Silesia. And to get their support he has to answer Commonwealth. Which it is doubtful he would answer, even in a gamble to secure a hereditary succession. Especially because the Commonwealth going hereditary is in many ways against their democratic principles and means a great lessening of the power of the Sejm which no longer has influence over you becomes King. Further Augustus can't lie because the army that is going to invade Silesia is mainly going to be a Polish Lithuanian force. So if he lies and tried to secure Silesia for Saxony he will simply provoke internal conflict within his realms. Finally it is doubtful that Augustus III cares enough for the Commonwealth to even try that gamble. Historically he was somewhat of a playboy who left the administration of the Commonwealth to an inept Saxon noble. Underwhom the Commonwealth became very decentralised and its power deteriorated even more. One of the major factors that the Commonwealth failed to stop the Firs Partition.
 
He can not leave it vague. If he says I want your support to conquer Silesia the Sejm is asking whether Saxony or the Commonwealth will end up with Silesia. And to get their support he has to answer Commonwealth. Which it is doubtful he would answer, even in a gamble to secure a hereditary succession. Especially because the Commonwealth going hereditary is in many ways against their democratic principles and means a great lessening of the power of the Sejm which no longer has influence over you becomes King. Further Augustus can't lie because the army that is going to invade Silesia is mainly going to be a Polish Lithuanian force. So if he lies and tried to secure Silesia for Saxony he will simply provoke internal conflict within his realms. Finally it is doubtful that Augustus III cares enough for the Commonwealth to even try that gamble. Historically he was somewhat of a playboy who left the administration of the Commonwealth to an inept Saxon noble. Underwhom the Commonwealth became very decentralised and its power deteriorated even more. One of the major factors that the Commonwealth failed to stop the Firs Partition.

Yeah I'm not so sure about this. If he thinks it would ensure him a hereditary succession he would at least make the attempt. Making the Commonwealth Kingship Hereditary to his Line was one of August II's Major Policy Goals in the first half of his reign. He's not going to give that up if the chance presents itself, after all if he does become hereditary King, then it's his land anyway.
 
Yeah I'm not so sure about this. If he thinks it would ensure him a hereditary succession he would at least make the attempt. Making the Commonwealth Kingship Hereditary to his Line was one of August II's Major Policy Goals in the first half of his reign. He's not going to give that up if the chance presents itself, after all if he does become hereditary King, then it's his land anyway.

Augustus II is dead. Dead, gone, donzo. Hence he mentioning the historical War of the Polish Succession, saying Augustus III, and describing Augustus III. So yeah Augustus II is dead and has been by the time the War of the Austrian Succession came around for seven years. Died at 62, didn't live till 70 to start a war for Silesia. Instead his son rules. And as I already said his son really didn't care all too much for the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth. Instead he left all the administration and governing to the inept von Bruhl.
 
Top