WI: Sardinia joins the Seven Years' War

[Carp]

Charles Emmanuel III, the King of Sardinia, fought on the side of the “Pragmatic Allies” (Austria, Britain, and the Netherlands) during the War of the Austrian Succession. By the end of that war, however, his relationship with Austria was extremely strained. The alliance forged between them by the Treaty of Worms was borne of desperation, as Austria badly needed Sardinia’s help to keep the Bourbons from seizing Milan and Mantua. Maria Theresa resented that Charles Emmanuel had extorted her in this moment of weakness, demanding Austrian territory as the price of his aid. Late in the war, the Austrians even proposed a separate peace with France that would have screwed over Sardinia, and tried until the very end to get out of the promises they had made to CE3 in the Treaty of Worms. For his part, Charles Emmanuel was furious that the final peace denied him territories he had been promised in the Treaty of Worms - the Genoese territory of Finale (which would have finally given Piedmont a port on the east side of the Alps) and the Austrian territory of Piacenza (which went to the new Bourbon Duke of Parma instead). Maria Theresa hated Frederick of Prussia above all, but Charles Emmanuel was a close second.

When the Seven Years’ War broke out, Sardinia remained neutral. This was probably a good call - while they had been on the winning side of the previous war, the conflict had been costly and the government was focused on paying down the country’s war debt. More importantly, Sardinia’s strategic situation had become much worse after the “Diplomatic Revolution” of 1756. Previously, the Savoyards benefitted from the rivalry between the Habsburgs and Bourbons which allowed them to play one against the other; now these two powers were allied and Sardinia was sandwiched between them. If Sardinia joined the war, Britain would no doubt have supported them with their naval and financial resources, but in terms of land forces the Sardinians would be quite alone in Italy.

Nevertheless, there were ministers in CE3's own government who urged him to join the war on the side of the British and Prussians. What if he had?

The earliest time for this to occur is probably in the summer of 1758. Frederick’s signal victories at Rossbach and Leuthen were won in late 1757, and in the spring of 1758 Brunswick drove the French back over the Rhine and Britain concluded a formal alliance and subsidy agreement with Prussia. With the anti-Prussian coalition seemingly on the back foot, the time looks ideal to strike. The Milanese is only lightly held - from what I can tell, at this moment Austrian Italy was defended by only about 6-7 Austrian battalions spread between the Milanese and Mantua. They were supported by 2,700 Modenese soldiers which the Duke of Modena (who at the time was serving as the governor of Milan) had lent to Austria to garrison Italy.

I’m not clear on exactly how large the Sardinian army was in 1756, but at its peak during the WAS in 1747 it reached around 55,000 men. A few regiments were disbanded after the peace, but reaching or exceeding this strength - particularly with British subsidies, which they would be happy to provide - would probably not be difficult.

The most sensible strategy is probably to ignore France and focus on the reduction of the Milanese. France will probably honor its treaty obligations to Austria, but I doubt their full effort will be spent in Italy. After the disasters of 1758 France’s newly-appointed chief minister Choiseul chose to concentrate on Britain and Western Germany, and he might still do that even if Sardinia entered the war (particularly if Sardinia makes no attempt to attack French territory). Still, a French occupation of Savoy seems likely (being on the other side of the Alps, it was a difficult territory for Sardinia to defend), and the French could make an attempt against Nice/Villefranche to cut Sardinia off from their British allies. An offensive against Piedmont proper, however, would be more challenging. Britain’s presence in the Mediterranean and Genoa’s neutrality means that it can really only be done with a campaign over the Alps, which had not gone very well for the French when they tried it at Assietta in 1747. Nevertheless, the Sardinians still have to guard against such a move, tying down a significant part of their army.

There is also the question of what Austria’s response would be. A Sardinian invasion of the Milanese cannot go unanswered, but diverting an army from the Prussian front will further weaken Austria in a contest they already appear to be losing. Would the Austrians cut a deal with one of their enemies in order to focus on the other, as they had done during the WAS?

Could Sardinia plausibly emerge from this war as one of the victors and gain territory in Lombardy, or is this certain to be the worst mistake the Savoyard monarchy ever made?

A quick and dirty SYW map from the internet which I’ve altered to add Sardinia​

 

[The Undead Martyr]

It really depends on whether Austria decides to cut its losses in Italy or strike a deal with Prussia to squash Sardinia like a bug.

One possibility is a Plombieres accord with France ceding Savoy and maybe Nice in return for a clear hand at Milan (and perhaps patt of Genoa?).

I think that you would need bigger Prussian victories or a change in the diplomacy- perhaps MT succeeds at screwing over Sardinia in the Treaty of Worms and that comes back to bite her with the loss of Milan.

 

[DJ03]

Assuming a Sardinian victory, would the austrians be willing to lose Milan at the peace table or would they try to throw someone else under the bus to save their lombard holdings?

 

[Carp]

It really depends on whether Austria decides to cut its losses in Italy or strike a deal with Prussia to squash Sardinia like a bug.

It seems to me like the Austrians would deal with Sardinia before Prussia, if only because their grand alliance is not focused on Sardinia. If Austria makes a separate peace with Prussia, they're leaving all their allies - Russia, Sweden, Saxony - completely in the lurch. Saxony is absolutely getting eaten in that scenario; Frederick occupies Dresden, and if Austria quits he's basically won the war.

Austria could try to negotiate a broader peace with Frederick alongside their allies, but I'm not sure how inclined Frederick is to consider reasonable terms in 1758. The war started only recently, and so far he's doing rather well. If 1759 goes as badly for the Prussians as it did IOTL then he might be in a better mood to negotiate, but things might not go as badly for the Prussians if Austria is compelled to send divisions down to Italy to deal with the Sardinians.

France doesn't have to join this; from what I understand of the Franco-Austrian Treaty of Versailles of 1756, France's minimum obligation was to furnish 24,000 troops or the equivalent amount of money to support such troops in the event that either party is attacked by a third party. If France wanted to make a bare minimum effort to maintain the alliance, they could either send 24,000 men to go sit on Savoy (this force probably isn't sufficient to force the Alps) or they could avoid the conflict entirely just by cutting Austria a check. I suppose the question is whether Louis XV would consider himself morally obligated to do more than the bare minimum.

As far as the Treaty of Worms goes, MT sort of did screw the Sardinians over. Sardinia was promised some bits of the Milanese, Piacenza, and Finale. They got the bits of the Milanese, but Piacenza was instead given to Don Felipe (who became Duke of Parma and Piacenza) and Genoa kept Finale.

Assuming a Sardinian victory, would the austrians be willing to lose Milan at the peace table or would they try to throw someone else under the bus to save their lombard holdings?

Now that you mention it, there actually is a rather crafty way they could throw someone under the bus. As I mentioned above, CE3 had been promised Piacenza, which was now part of the Duchy of Parma. Attacking Parma would probably be a bad idea because that would definitely bring France and Spain in against him.

There was, however, a weird quirk involving the Parmesan inheritance (what a great name for a war that would be...). When the Treaty of Aix-la-Chapelle was signed in 1748, it was assumed that in the event that Charles of Naples succeeded his brother as King of Spain (which he did in 1759 as Charles III), his brother Felipe would succeed to Naples, and Parma would then return to its original owners - Parma proper would go to Austria, while Piacenza, having been promised to CE3 at the Treaty of Worms, would go to Sardinia. When this actually happened in 1759, however, Carlos preferred to leave Naples and Sicily to his own son rather than letting his brother succeed, something which apparently the diplomats in 1748 didn't even consider. IOTL, Austria decided to allow this - Austria was allied to the Bourbons, and Maria Theresa really didn't want to see CE3 get any more territory in Italy even it it meant that Austria wouldn't get Parma back. CE3 kicked and screamed, but there ultimately wasn't much to be done about it (unless he wanted to join the war), and some years later he eventually accepted financial compensation in exchange for recognizing the Bourbon succession in Parma.

If Sardinia joins the war in 1758, then this succession question is going to pop up the very next year when Carlos succeeds to Spain. One way the Austrians could try and "throw someone else under the bus" might be to refuse to go along with Carlos's proposed succession, demanding that the terms of 1748 be carried out exactly as written. Austria thus offers Piacenza (or perhaps all of Parma and Piacenza) to CE3 in exchange for peace, and thus preserves the Milanese. Felipe gets Naples and Sicily, or possibly splits it with Ferdinand (perhaps Felipe getting Naples and Ferdinand getting Sicily).

This would be a rather dastardly thing to do to the Spaniards, but it seems plausible, and would allow Austria to end the war without actually losing anything (assuming CE3 does the smart thing and takes the deal instead of holding out for all the marbles).

 

[Vitruvius]

There was, however, a weird quirk involving the Parmesan inheritance (what a great name for a war that would be...). When the Treaty of Aix-la-Chapelle was signed in 1748, it was assumed that in the event that Charles of Naples succeeded his brother as King of Spain (which he did in 1759 as Charles III), his brother Felipe would succeed to Naples, and Parma would then return to its original owners - Parma proper would go to Austria, while Piacenza, having been promised to CE3 at the Treaty of Worms, would go to Sardinia. When this actually happened in 1759, however, Carlos preferred to leave Naples and Sicily to his own son rather than letting his brother succeed, something which apparently the diplomats in 1748 didn't even consider. IOTL, Austria decided to allow this - Austria was allied to the Bourbons, and Maria Theresa really didn't want to see CE3 get any more territory in Italy even it it meant that Austria wouldn't get Parma back. CE3 kicked and screamed, but there ultimately wasn't much to be done about it (unless he wanted to join the war), and some years later he eventually accepted financial compensation in exchange for recognizing the Bourbon succession in Parma.

Yes this is the crux of the issue. Though its even more complicated. The wording of the Treaty of Aix said that Parma and Piacenza would revert to Austria and Savoy upon the accession of Carlos Bourbon to the Spanish throne upon the death of Ferdinand IV. But as you said there was no provision in the Treaty even mentioning Felipe acceding to Naples and Carlos was not bound by it. It had been discussed in the peace preliminaries but it never made it into the final treaty though all the signatories seemed to assume that was still the plan. It was an unfortunate assumption made on the part of the French, Austrians and British. So it was really a poorly constructed agreement. But what's more complicated is that there was a separate provision in the Treaty inserted to placate Savoy whereby Britain/the King of Great Britain undertook to ensure the retrocession of Piacenza to Savoy (though curiously not the retrocession of Parma to Austria).

So Britain had a treaty obligation to ensure the retrocession of Piacenza. Once Carlos made clear that he intended to pass Naples to his younger son it became apparent that Felipe (who was married to Louis XV's daughter) was in danger of being dispossessed upon the death of Ferdinand IV as the British were presumably going to honor the Treaty and evict Felipe if he didn't go willingly. This set off a flurry of diplomatic activity. The Treaty of Aranjuez in 1752 between Austria, Savoy and Spain under Ferdinand (who had no love for his half brothers) attempted to reinforce the Aix settlement. The marriage of Joseph with Isabella of Parma also came out of this as well as it was initially proposed before her brother was born and thus it was hoped that the retrocession could be delayed and converted into a succession via Isabella.

But conversely the French after Aranjuez came to terms with Carlos in a secret pact in 1753 in which they agreed to his plans to pass Naples to his younger son in return he agreed to support their attempts to compensate Felipe. This presaged the Bourbon Family compact of 1761 underlining that Carlos was already well aligned with France prior to succeeding to the Spanish throne. It also led to proposals to concede the Austrian Netherlands to Felipe in exchange for supporting Austria to regain Silesia and the previously agreed retrocession of Parma and Guastalla. That notion was then incorporated into the Treaty of Versailles of 1757 though renounced in the Treaty of 1758 when France reduced its commitments.

So given all of that Charles Emmanuel would almost certainly demand that the British honor their obligations to him and secure him Piacenza. I believe the only reason it didn't happen OTL is that all the powers were at war and making that demand would drag Savoy into that war. But if he's considering joining anyways then he'll make that demand up front on top of any subsidies or promises of Austrian territory. On the other hand Carlos is secretly committed to assisting French efforts to protect Felipe in exchange for France and Austria respecting his younger sons succession in Naples and Sicily so the Bourbon family compact is probably inevitable and perhaps even advanced somewhat if Savoy enters the war.

So if Savoy enters the war before the death of Ferdinand IV I expect that as soon as he's dead and Carlos is on the throne in Madrid that a new Bourbon Family compact is signed squarely aimed against Savoy. So rather that the Spanish invasion of Portugal Spain and Naples could attack Savoy in 1760. Spain is perhaps promised Sardinia as compensation to enable Carlos to quickly pull the country into the war. Although the island could be effectively defended by the British Spanish armies could be marched across southern Spain to attack Savoy directly. So Austria may not have to worry about knocking Savoy out itself as Spain may provide assistance.

Though Spain and Naples-Sicily will suffer greatly for it. Savoy could renew demands for Sicily. The British could bombard Naples or attack Sicily. And as they did OTL they'll attack the Spanish colonial empire. So the big question is really in this scenario, is Savoy as resilient as Portugal was OTL? If Savoy sues for peace in 1761 after a combine Franco-Austro-Spanish assault and its knocked out of the war by 1762 then if anything the momentum of the conflict is probably shifted slight in favor of the Austrian-French side vis a vis OTL. If Savoy hangs in there then things could play out similarly to OTL.

 

[Carp]

...

Very interesting, thanks! I wasn't aware of those details of the Aix treaty, and I underestimated just how interested CE3 was in Piacenza - I was thinking of the Milanese as the main course and wondering whether France would help Austria, but it clearly makes much more sense for the Piacenza question to spark the war rather than a mere opportunistic attack against the Milanese. In that case, I wonder if Austria would become involved at all; it sounds as though they had guaranteed Parma to Philip, but not Piacenza, and even if the Sardinians were to invade Parma proper the Austrians aren't really in the best position to send an army down to Italy just to uphold their treaty obligations to Parma.

Looking further into it, apparently Choiseul told CE3 that while France recognized the validity of his claim to Piacenza they would prefer that he accept some other compensation to allow Felipe to retain his duchy. Britain wanted him to refuse this offer of "compensation" (which Choiseul did not really define; Charles Emmanuel hoped it might come in the form of some Genoese territory), but CE3 decided that it was better to hope for some sort of compensation from France rather than risk war. For the purposes of this scenario, let's assume that CE3 either doesn't accept this offer or Choiseul doesn't make it. Instead of the war starting in 1758, we'll delay it to August of 1759 when Charles III succeeds to Spain: Charles Emmanuel gives an ultimatum to Parma to relinquish Piacenza, Parma refuses, Sardinia goes to war.

You mentioned that France might offer some inducement (like the isle of Sardinia) to Spain to get them in the war, but they already have Minorca to offer, and apparently Charles was already preparing for a possible war with Sardinia over Piacenza prior to becoming King of Spain. It seems like he probably doesn't need further inducements to go to war if Parma is attacked. At that point Britain is probably obligated to join, although knowing this will happen it's possible that Carlos might send a Spanish army to Naples before going to war to try and avoid being intercepted by the British Navy. After Quiberon Bay in November of 1759 the French are basically spent as a naval force (in 1760 they had only 5 operational ships of the line in the entire Mediterranean), so the British can probably secure naval dominance here. They might try a repeat of 1742 in which the British forced Charles to exit the WAS under threat of bombarding Naples, but even if Naples formally exits the war the Sardinians might still have to deal with a Spanish army on the "wrong side" of the Alps if Carlos was clever enough to send one before Spain went to war.

Thus instead of a general entry of Sardinia into the Seven Years' War, we have a concurrent "War of the Placentine Succession" in which Sardinia goes to war with the Bourbon powers, but in which Austria is probably not involved. The result is, as you propose, an earlier Family Compact. Sardinia attacks Parma around September/October 1759 and probably overwhelms the duchy, although Piacenza itself was apparently well-fortified and might hold out for some time. Realistically, there's probably not much chance of a Bourbon counterattack materializing until 1760. I would expect the British to reinforce Nice/Villefranche with soldiers and artillery as they did in the WAS.

This doesn't seem necessarily fatal to Sardinia, particularly if Austria stays out - and it seems to me like they would, given how hard the fighting is against Prussia and the fact that Austria's position in Italy is not immediately threatened. French armies are occupied with Brunswick in western Germany, who defeated them at Minden in August 1759 (just as Carlos becomes King of Spain) and was subsequently reinforced. France might well send troops to assist the Spanish but I can't seem them prioritizing Italy over Brunswick's army, which means the Spanish will be doing all the heavy lifting. The Bourbons are likely to occupy Savoy - it's probably indefensible - while the Sardinians occupy Parma and Piacenza. At that point, assuming the Sardinians are able to defeat any forces sent over prior to the declaration of war, it turns into another contest over the Alps in which the Sardinians probably have the advantage. The Sardinian army acquitted themselves rather well in the 1740s, and given the performance of the Spanish in the "Fantastic War" I'm not terribly confident in their chances here, particularly with strong British support. Nevertheless, numbers do matter, and aside from some British marines at Villefranche CE3 can't count on any other support.

 

[Hastings]

The problem I see here is leverage. The Spanish performance was absolutely terrible in this war, he probably does just fine militarily. He will lose Savoy, gain Parma. That isn't really worth any more than Piacenza at peace table. For more, he is going to be dependent on the British throwing their weight behind him to reward him being an ally, which is quite possible, they probably could have gotten a little more if they really wanted. He can't try to occupy Naples, because Austria & friends are in the way and won't let him march his army through and no point just going anyway because why add an enemy and if Austria has a large army in Milan, it isn't safe to march on Naples anyway.

I wonder if he will eventually start looking for a suitable provocation to invade Genoa over. If it is, say 1761, and Alps are holding, and Spanish are pretty well beaten what is there to do? Genoa provides another bargaining chip and what better time when you are at war with two of the big boys on the block anyway and the third is busy.

I suppose another option would be a joint descent on Sicily with the British? That would fix the leverage issue.

 

[Hastings]

Heck, that may save the Corsican Republic. British will want to secure a supply route to their ally and Genoa won't be able to support it's garrisons if invaded and not like France is in a naval position to stop them. British won the war, so easy enough to then throw Corsican independence on the pile.

 

[Vitruvius]

Good point about Menorca. I was thinking of a promise of Sardinia to give concrete justification for Spain invading Savoy specifically. But perhaps to overarching agreement with France and the promise of Menorca is enough.

I suppose CE could negotiate with Britain about joining the war and then just wait out Ferdinand with an army at the ready and invade while his body is still warm at the end of '59. That probably gives them one campaign to occupy Piacenza before Carlos is able to take the reigns in Madrid and react. How much damage Savoy can do in '59-60 will dictate the course of the conflict. If Britain needs to/is able to get directly involved to aid Savoy and in turn expand the war be invading Provence or Milan.

Good points about Corsica and Genoa. There's definite potential to spread the conflict to other parts of Italy. Britain may eye the Presidi as well which threatens Austrian Tuscany. Though it probably wouldn't be too hard for the British to knock out Naples-Sicily from the war with bombardments of Naples and/or Palermo.

The other thing that is relevant when considering possible outcomes is that through the diplomatic wrangling of the 1750s one constant idea, even as late as '59 was to relocate Felipe to Lorraine in succession to Stanislaw Leszczynski. So if in a final settlement Savoy gains Piacenza expect Felipe to end up in Nancy as soon as his wife's grandfather is dead.

 

[Carp]

He can't try to occupy Naples, because Austria & friends are in the way and won't let him march his army through and no point just going anyway because why add an enemy and if Austria has a large army in Milan, it isn't safe to march on Naples anyway.

Violation of neutral territory in Italy for purposes of transit happened numerous times in the WAS and I don't really see that as an issue; after all, prior to becoming King of Spain, Charles was making plans to potentially march an army right up through the Papal States if war erupted over Parma. Certainly Modena is not in a position to tell CE3 "no;" their army is tiny, and most of it is garrisoning Milan at this point. I also don't think Austria is going to be putting a large army in Milan anytime soon given what's happening elsewhere. Nevertheless, you're probably right overall - as long as the French and Spanish have significant forces on the other side of the Alps, it's probably not safe to send a large part of the Sardinian army off to Naples.

I wonder if he will eventually start looking for a suitable provocation to invade Genoa over. If it is, say 1761, and Alps are holding, and Spanish are pretty well beaten what is there to do? Genoa provides another bargaining chip and what better time when you are at war with two of the big boys on the block anyway and the third is busy.

Involving Genoa in the war was a bad idea for the Pragmatic Allies in the WAS, because it closed a neutral port to the British - prior to this, British subsidies to Sardinia were actually shipped through Genoese territory, and after the fall of Villefranche this was the only potential way for the British to reach Piedmont. It also opened an avenue for the Bourbons to attack Italy and use Genoese logistics to do so, and added another 10,000 men to the Bourbon army which already enjoyed an advantage in numbers. That said, Genoa in the 1750s is not Genoa in the 1740s. The WAS was crippling - the country was devastated, and had been so thoroughly plundered that it was said the occupiers had even ripped the doors off their hinges. The Genoese government in the 1750s was paying well over half their entire national revenue on servicing their war debt.

So Genoa might indeed be a tempting target - and CE3 indeed hoped that his "compensation" for Piacenza might be some Genoese territory that gave him a port - but that has to be balanced against the risk of losing Genoa as a neutral port, widening the war, and tying down Sardinian troops. Genoa's army was essentially done for, but in the WAS the Ligurian militia proved to be quite capable at defending their mountains and harassing occupiers. Sardinia doesn't have a lot of spare troops to devote to occupying hostile territory, besieging Genoese fortresses, and so on.

Heck, that may save the Corsican Republic. British will want to secure a supply route to their ally and Genoa won't be able to support it's garrisons if invaded and not like France is in a naval position to stop them. British won the war, so easy enough to then throw Corsican independence on the pile.

I hadn't really thought about it (shocking, I know) but there is some attraction to the idea given that Britain has lost Minorca. The issue is, again, that this makes an enemy of Genoa, with all the potential problems that entails. If CE3 has already resolved to attack Genoa, however, the British don't really lose anything by helping Paoli. The British could easily deliver Bastia and San Fiorenzo into Corsican hands without even debarking troops; a naval bombardment would be sufficient.

I suppose CE could negotiate with Britain about joining the war and then just wait out Ferdinand with an army at the ready and invade while his body is still warm at the end of '59. That probably gives them one campaign to occupy Piacenza before Carlos is able to take the reigns in Madrid and react. How much damage Savoy can do in '59-60 will dictate the course of the conflict. If Britain needs to/is able to get directly involved to aid Savoy and in turn expand the war be invading Provence or Milan.

That's probably the ideal situation for Sardinia, as I really don't think the Bourbons can meaningfully respond in late 1759. Charles has only just become King of Spain, so no military preparations have been made there; France is still actively fighting Brunswick in Germany; and the army of Naples, while potentially ready to march, is probably not strong enough to defeat the Sardinians on their own. I don't have good information on the military presence in Parma at this time, but it can't have been very strong - Piacenza, as I mentioned, was well-fortified but the Sardinians potentially have the whole autumn and winter to reduce it without much interference from their opponents. My sense is that they can probably pull this off, and once taken it will serve as a strong defense against any Spanish-Neapolitan maneuver from the southeast.

It seems like the incentive of most parties in this conflict is to solve it as quickly as possible. France absolutely does not want to fight on another front, particularly one as disadvantageous as the Alps. There's nothing in it for Austria either, and if the war spreads to the Milanese there's not that much Austria can do about it without imperiling the war against Prussia, which is already very difficult. Carlos wants to protect the inheritance of his son and the honor of Philip, but if Philip can be relocated to another principality then Ferdinand's succession is secure and Spain doesn't have much of a reason to fight (other than just punishing CE3). Sardinia is a secondary power with limited resources, and it is absolutely in their interest to make this war a quick and successful one rather than a long struggle against the Bourbons. The only state which might want to prolong the conflict is Britain, as any French/Austrian forces going to Italy will take pressure off of of them and their Prussian allies in Germany, but I don't think they can dictate a peace alone. Moreover, even CE3's enemies in this war agree that his claims are legitimate; France didn't dispute that CE3 had a right to Piacenza, they just didn't want him to exercise it for the sake of Philip. So satisfying CE3 isn't rewarding a rule-breaker like Frederick, it's accepting the demands of a legitimately aggrieved party.

For those reasons, assuming the Sardinians gain initial success by taking Parma-Piacenza, the British assert supremacy in the Mediterranean (and potentially drive Naples out of the war by threats of bombardment), and a Spanish counterattack in 1760 fails (Spanish failure seems to be the consensus here), my guess is that the Bourbon-Habsburg alliance is going to throw some sort of offer together to resolve the situation and the "War of the Placentian Succession" might actually end prior to the final resolution of the overall war in 1763. With regards to Philip, I am reminded of the fact that there were various attempts to place him in Savoy during the WAS. Indeed, Maria Theresa made a proposal in 1745 to end the war with the Bourbons by giving Savoy to Phiip, while compensating CE3 with some part (but not all) of the Milanese.

With that in mind, I feel like there could be a possible resolution along those lines: Felipe relocates to Savoy (which is going to be occupied by the French and Spanish in this war anyway), while CE3 is compensated by the cession of Parma, Piacenza, and possibly other territory (a slice of the Milanese including Pavia, the Marquisate of Finale from Genoa, etc) depending on how well the Sardinians do, how badly the Spanish do, and how desperate the Bourbons and Austrians are feeling at the moment. Although the Savoyards might have some attachment to their "home" duchy, this trades an indefensible province across the Alps for more valuable territory in Lombardy, and allows CE3 to "win" while still giving Philip a place to rule.

That said, perhaps Lorraine is still more likely than Savoy - I don't know much about that proposal. And I can't discount the possibility that the Italian war might widen in unforeseen ways, even if it seems to be in everyone's interest to end it quickly. As the Papal Nuncio to France said towards the end of the WAS: “All say that they sincerely want peace, but each would like it with his advantage, which is the same as saying he does not want it.”

Britain may eye the Presidi as well which threatens Austrian Tuscany.

From what I've read, by the Treaty of Naples in 1759 Charles ceded part of the stato dei presidi to Austria/Tuscany, apparently as a means to bind the Austrians more closely to Naples and ensure their support for Ferdinand's succession there. The treaty text in question:

In correspondence and consideration of her imperial and royal Majesty, the queen empress waives for herself, her heirs and her successors, her right of reversion over the aforementioned three dukedoms [Parma, Piancenza, and Guastalla]; His Catholic and Sicilian Majesty in the capacity of King of the Two Sicilies, for himself, his heirs and successors, by way of indemnity and reciprocal compensation, cedes and transfers to her Imperial and Royal Majesty the empress queen half of the estate that in the continent of the lower Senés is called the "Presidios Toscanos..."

I don't know what "lower Senés" means here, or exactly what "half of the estate" means - perhaps the Monte Argentario peninsula (as opposed to Porto Longone in Elba). I'm not clear on whether this was actually done, though, because every map and source I come across seems to suggest that the presidi was still a Neapolitan possession until the Napoleonic era. Porto Longone itself might be a possible acquisition for Britain, although it's not as good a position as Portoferraio next door.

 

[Vitruvius]

From what I've read, by the Treaty of Naples in 1759 Charles ceded part of the stato dei presidi to Austria/Tuscany, apparently as a means to bind the Austrians more closely to Naples and ensure their support for Ferdinand's succession there. The treaty text in question:

I don't know what "lower Senés" means here, or exactly what "half of the estate" means - perhaps the Monte Argentario peninsula (as opposed to Porto Longone in Elba). I'm not clear on whether this was actually done, though, because every map and source I come across seems to suggest that the presidi was still a Neapolitan possession until the Napoleonic era. Porto Longone itself might be a possible acquisition for Britain, although it's not as good a position as Portoferraio next door.

Yes that agreement was to essentially buy Austrian agreement to the Neapolitan succession which would necessitate them surrendering their rights to the retrocession of Parma and Guastalla. I believe that Senés is an older French form of Siena or Sienese as the presidi were originally carved out of the territory of the old Republic of Siena before it was given to the Medici. I too am unclear as to what specifically, if anything, was ultimately handed over to Austria.

Austria apparently briefly came to terms with Carlos over the Neapolitan succession in 1755 by agreeing to a series of marriage pacts to envisioned Ferdinando succeeding Carlos in Naples. But they did so without actually giving up their rights to Parma and Guastalla. Then through further agreements with the French Austria did give up its rights to Parma and Guastalla which necessitated backing away from Naples and favoring a match with Parma. So the Treaty of Naples in '59 was necessary to finally settle the issue with the Austrians and fully reconcile them with Carlos. The negotiation of that treaty is what delayed Carlos' abdication. Ferdinand died in August but Carlos didn't abdicate and depart Naples until October because he felt he had to secure and agreement at least with Austria before he could comfortably leave Naples behind with his younger son.

This is, by the way, coming from Rohan Butler's very interesting paper on the subject which I went back to re-read. Interestingly he states that as late as October of 1758 CE still refused to concede his rights to Piacenza so even though they had taken care of Austria's interests by then the French still felt that they couldn't deny/refuse CE his rights. So internally they were saying that the only possibility would be to move Felipe to Lorraine as had been proposed at various points earlier in the decade. By that point the French had sufficiently reduced their military and financial obligations to Austria that the Netherlands deal was apparently dead.

Importantly Carlos apparently mustered Neapolitan troops and sent them north in support of his brother in early 1759, presumably not to actually start hostilities but to help the French bluff CE into accepting a cash payment instead. Probably also to help their negotiating position for a final definitive settlement with Austria. The French made a renewed settlement offer to CE in February '59. So there remains the possibility that if CE refuses to back down and invades in late '59 that Neapolitan troops could be there to help Parma resist until Carlos can bring a Spanish army over and invade Savoy or Piedmont from the west. Or alternatively the French back down and induce Carlos to do likewise and just decide that Felipe has to give up Piacenza. He and his wife will have to make due with only Parma and Guastalla until Lorraine becomes available when Stanislaw dies. But she can sooth her ego with her daughter's marriage to Joseph.

Obviously the latter scenario is not very interesting while the former has the obvious potential to spiral into a wider war as Naples and Spain invade Savoy which probably then calls for British aid.

 

[Codae]

I don't know what "lower Senés" means here, or exactly what "half of the estate" means - perhaps the Monte Argentario peninsula (as opposed to Porto Longone in Elba). I'm not clear on whether this was actually done, though, because every map and source I come across seems to suggest that the presidi was still a Neapolitan possession until the Napoleonic era. Porto Longone itself might be a possible acquisition for Britain, although it's not as good a position as Portoferraio next door.

What I've found indicates that "basso Senese" or "Senese Inferiore" refers to a portion of the part of Tuscany previously ruled by Siena, and that the second half of the article you quoted is a provision for dividing the Presidi into two halves.

 

[Carp]

Yes that agreement was to essentially buy Austrian agreement to the Neapolitan succession which would necessitate them surrendering their rights to the retrocession of Parma and Guastalla. I believe that Senés is an older French form of Siena or Sienese as the presidi were originally carved out of the territory of the old Republic of Siena before it was given to the Medici. I too am unclear as to what specifically, if anything, was ultimately handed over to Austria.

What I've found indicates that "basso Senese" or "Senese Inferiore" refers to a portion of the part of Tuscany previously ruled by Siena, and that the second half of the article you quoted is a provision for dividing the Presidi into two halves.

That makes perfect sense - my brain just didn't connect "Senés" and "Sienese" before now. The obvious way to divide the state in "half" would be dividing the Monte Argentario peninsula from Porto Longone in Elba, but if that's the case I have no idea which part would go to whom. Tuscany borders both territories.

Importantly Carlos apparently mustered Neapolitan troops and sent them north in support of his brother in early 1759, presumably not to actually start hostilities but to help the French bluff CE into accepting a cash payment instead. Probably also to help their negotiating position for a final definitive settlement with Austria. The French made a renewed settlement offer to CE in February '59. So there remains the possibility that if CE refuses to back down and invades in late '59 that Neapolitan troops could be there to help Parma resist until Carlos can bring a Spanish army over and invade Savoy or Piedmont from the west.

I've seen this troop movement mentioned before, but as far as I know he "sent them north" only as far as the border between Naples and the Papal States. The Neapolitan troops would be very useful in defending Parma and Piacenza, but if they're in the Abruzzi when CE makes his move I can't see them reaching Parma before the Sardinians. If the Neapolitans are too late to reinforce the garrison of Parma and meet the Sardinians in the field, I don't like their chances; I very much doubt that Naples alone, with no help from Spain, is going to be able to defeat 20,000+ Sardinians in open battle, which seems a reasonable number given CE's deployments in the WAS. If they fight and lose, Naples itself could be left vulnerable. It seems very likely to me, then, that Charles intended this as a show of force rather than a preliminary step towards an actual offensive. Surely if war arrived, it would be smarter to hold the Neapolitan army back until they could be used in a coordinated offensive with the Spanish (and French) rather than trying to fight CE alone.

The question at that point is whether the Bourbons decide to fight it out. Charles is now in Spain, and CE occupies all of Parma and Piacenza (and the cities are likely to capitulate before the Spring). Charles presumably knows that if he declares war on Sardinia, Britain is likely to join, which puts the entire Spanish Empire at risk from British attack. He's also only just gained the throne in Spain, so no preparations have been made there for any sort of military campaign. We've established that France recognizes CE's claim and was seriously considering just moving Philip to Lorraine. At this moment, in late 1759/early 1760, the Bourbons could still decide to relent and allow CE to take Piacenza, and all things considered it seems like that would be the smartest move.

What, at this point, could induce the Bourbons to go to war? I'm not sure Charles cares all that much about the honor of his brother, particularly if he knows that he'll eventually get Lorraine. Certainly he was afraid of CE's ambitions and might feel like Sardinia needed to be cut down to size, but France may not feel that way. France had a lot of influence in Parma through du Tillot and might be afraid of losing all Bourbon influence in northern Italy, but if they were willing to move Felipe to Lorraine then clearly that didn't bother them too much. Is there any reason they would decide that CE had to be opposed rather than appeased?

The other path to war is that CE gets greedy - demanding all of Parma (after all, Austria just abandoned their rights to it), or holding Parma hostage unless given further concessions like the Genoese Marquisate of Finale (which was denied him in 1748). Demanding Finale, at least, would have thin cloak of legality since he was "owed" that by the Treaty of Worms. I don't know that CE really has the character to make that sort of play, though - if the Bourbons are willing to yield Piacenza, he would probably just take that win and return to neutrality.

 

[Vitruvius]

The question at that point is whether the Bourbons decide to fight it out. Charles is now in Spain, and CE occupies all of Parma and Piacenza (and the cities are likely to capitulate before the Spring). Charles presumably knows that if he declares war on Sardinia, Britain is likely to join, which puts the entire Spanish Empire at risk from British attack. He's also only just gained the throne in Spain, so no preparations have been made there for any sort of military campaign. We've established that France recognizes CE's claim and was seriously considering just moving Philip to Lorraine. At this moment, in late 1759/early 1760, the Bourbons could still decide to relent and allow CE to take Piacenza, and all things considered it seems like that would be the smartest move.

What, at this point, could induce the Bourbons to go to war? I'm not sure Charles cares all that much about the honor of his brother, particularly if he knows that he'll eventually get Lorraine. Certainly he was afraid of CE's ambitions and might feel like Sardinia needed to be cut down to size, but France may not feel that way. France had a lot of influence in Parma through du Tillot and might be afraid of losing all Bourbon influence in northern Italy, but if they were willing to move Felipe to Lorraine then clearly that didn't bother them too much. Is there any reason they would decide that CE had to be opposed rather than appeased?

The other path to war is that CE gets greedy - demanding all of Parma (after all, Austria just abandoned their rights to it), or holding Parma hostage unless given further concessions like the Genoese Marquisate of Finale (which was denied him in 1748). Demanding Finale, at least, would have thin cloak of legality since he was "owed" that by the Treaty of Worms. I don't know that CE really has the character to make that sort of play, though - if the Bourbons are willing to yield Piacenza, he would probably just take that win and return to neutrality.

I agree. I think Parma could be the flash point. As a practical matter if Felipe is militarily resisting the retrocession of Piacenza it would not make much sense for CE to stop at occupying only Piacenza and leave a hostile Felipe in neighboring Parma. On the other hand CE has no claim to Parma so invading Parma could be used as a casus belli.

Carlos definitely doesn't care about Felipe per se but his secret pact with Louis kind of obligates him to care at least to some extent. So the question is probably whether Maria Theresa chooses to care about it. If she withholds recognition of the Neapolitan succession that could serve as an inducement to Carlos to intervene.

I don't know what her perspective would be. She probably wouldn't like the idea of opening another front in the war but she won't like the idea of CE's aggrandizement especially when she's already given up Austria's share (Parma and Guastalla). So perhaps if the Austrians convince themselves that they can knock CE down a peg without actually having to fight him by getting Carlos to invade Savoy for them they might make diplomatic moves to make that happen opening the way to a wider war.

 

[Hastings]

What I've never understood is why France had so little interest in Lorraine. Yes it lacked major urban centers and wasn't a military threat, but it was reasonably prosperous and had a population of perhaps 700,000 or so. France regularly occupied it, often of long periods, but seemed to care a lot more about border adjustments elsewhere. Like here they finally got an agreement where it will revert to them after the War of Polish Succession, and what do they do? Start thinking about giving it to the Spanish side of the family.

In terms of CE, him invading, then the Bourbon's ceding Piacenza and maybe Finale makes a lot of sense for all involved. The diplomatic details of the period is not necessarily my strong suit, but the impression I get from looking at the general period is there is extremely good odds somehow someone will manage to mess up this perfectly sensible approach and after 3 years of pointlessly bashing heads end up in the originally proposed situation.

 

[Vitruvius]

What I've never understood is why France had so little interest in Lorraine. Yes it lacked major urban centers and wasn't a military threat, but it was reasonably prosperous and had a population of perhaps 700,000 or so. France regularly occupied it, often of long periods, but seemed to care a lot more about border adjustments elsewhere. Like here they finally got an agreement where it will revert to them after the War of Polish Succession, and what do they do? Start thinking about giving it to the Spanish side of the family.

I believe it all comes down to Madame Infante, Louis' eldest daughter Louise Elisabeth, who was married to Felipe. No one wanted to see the King's ambitious daughter dispossessed. I think the French probably also felt they had to do the honorable thing and secure territory for Felipe because they screwed up the Treaty of Aix.

And Lorraine was really the last resort as they tried initially to negotiate for Felipe to get Naples, then a deal with Austria to put him in the Netherlands then attempts to get Austria and Savoy to let him stay in Parma.

 

[Janprimus]

I believe it all comes down to Madame Infante, Louis' eldest daughter Louise Elisabeth, who was married to Felipe. No one wanted to see the King's ambitious daughter dispossessed. I think the French probably also felt they had to do the honorable thing and secure territory for Felipe because they screwed up the Treaty of Aix.

And Lorraine was really the last resort as they tried initially to negotiate for Felipe to get Naples, then a deal with Austria to put him in the Netherlands then attempts to get Austria and Savoy to let him stay in Parma.

Wouldn't Lorraine & Bar by this point revert to France after the death of the former Polish king? The southern Netherlands, maybe Austria might have wanted it, with the right compensation in Germany or Italy, but no way Britain and the Dutch Republic wanted a French proxy there.
Felipe getting Naples & Sicily ITTL might actually not be a bad deal. Then Sardinia-Savoy getting Piacenza and Austria getting Parma and Guastella seems a reasonable compromise.

 

[unprincipled peter]

Seems to me Carlos III is doing a whole lot of unnecessary wrangling for his son's succession. Possession is 9 tenths of the law. In the middle of a long, weary war, who is going to invade Naples just to ensure that Felipe gets the throne instead of Ferdinand? By this point, France and Austria are eagerly courting Spain to join their cause. they aren't risking losing Spain just so that Felipe gets Naples. Britain has already shown it is more interested in the colonial sphere. Savoy would be quite isolated if they decided to join the battered Prussians and absent British. When Prussia was looking good, Britain was not doing well. Once Britain turned the corner, Prussia concurrently started losing. France is going to pressure Carlos to put his troops to use in Italy if Savoy were to go anti France/Austria. Savoy isn't a true British ally, so Britain would probably leave that region alone. Even if he's on top of the world Frederick isn't coming down to save Savoy. A Spain that is occupied in Italy isn't going to be a threat elsewhere, so Britain isn't likely to declare war on them. They aren't obligated to, and OTL resisted doing so despite Pitt begging for it.

Perhaps the wrangling was more about ensuring Savoy doesn't get any bellicose ideas, but on paper, it looks like CE's option is to join France/Austria, or stay out. Overall, things have to look quite bleak for France/Austria before CE goes against them, and things never looked that bleak. France reached a point where they were desperate to get out, but still had enough oomph to try helping Spain in Portugal. Austria, though, ended up doing well enough against Prussia (not well enough to regain Silesia) that they were still a credible threat.

IMO, to get Savoy involved, you have to present a situation where F/A are looking doomed AND Britain looks willing to help Savoy ensure Austria loses territory.

 

[Carp]

I agree that a purposeful "hey, let's jump into the SYW" on the part of Charles Emmanuel is... not very plausible. What does seem plausible, however - at least by comparison - is a "Piacenza crisis gone bad" scenario, as we've been discussing. CE believed he was in the process of being cheated out of a territory that everyone agreed was rightfully his, and Britain had guaranteed his right to it. France wanted to keep Philip in place in Parma, but they weren't necessarily going to the mat for it:

So late as October 1758 another French memorandum... concluded that even with Austrian renunciation of its reversion on Parma and Guastalla it would not be viable for Don Philip to remain there unless Charles Emmanuel could be induced to sign away Piacenza. If not, the proposal for Don Philip was once more Lorraine...

The Treaty of Versailles at the end of 1758 strengthened the accord between Louis and Charles, and Charles duly mustered troops on his northern frontier, presumably to add some teeth to Choiseul's diplomacy. Choiseul assured CE that if he renounced his claim he would get undefined "compensation," and ultimately CE buckled. But if he doesn't buckle - if he decides that Choiseul and Charles are bluffing and just takes Piacenza - he might well have made a winning bet. Choiseul didn't want to get involved in a war in Italy, certainly not with the way things were going in 1759. Moreover, what Choiseul wanted most of all was Spain in the war against Britain, and if Charles instead gets caught up in some stupid Italian war over Piacenza, Britain is probably going on the back burner. (Granted, from the French perspective it might seem possible that Britain would attack Spain in defense of Sardinia, but Choiseul would probably prefer for Spain to join on its own accord and at the proper time rather than being immediately caught up in a war which Spain is manifestly unready to fight.) So if everyone involved is being reasonable and the only difference is that CE decides to call the Bourbon bluff and forcibly occupy Piacenza, it seems pretty likely to me that CE gets Piacenza. Presumably poor Philip has to make do with his rump duchy of Parma and Guastalla until Stanislaw kicks the bucket a few years later, and then he gets Lorraine while P&G revert to Austria (recent treaties notwithstanding).

That said, "everyone involved being reasonable" is not necessarily a safe assumption in 18th century diplomacy. It is possible that CE overreaches, or that the Bourbons overreact. Charles has a Neapolitan army ready in 1759; when he hears that the Sardinians have invaded his brother's duchy, he could send them forth to try and protect Parma. Perhaps CE is being prudent and has only occupied Piacenza rather than moving further, but once he knows there's a Neapolitan army marching north, what does he do? If the intention of the Bourbons is to fight, it could be dangerous to just sit back and allow them to occupy Parma, a fortified city that would serve as a base for all future operations. Perhaps Charles only intends to defend Parma to make sure that CE stays on his side of the dividing line, but CE can't read his mind - he only knows what his diplomats and scouts tell him. Perhaps CE directly appeals to the British - who have, after all, guaranteed his right to Piacenza - and they decide to strengthen their squadron in the Mediterranean as a precautionary measure, which in turn stokes Bourbon fears of a developing Anglo-Sardinian alliance. Perhaps CE decides to march past Parma and stand in the way of the Neapolitan army to prevent them from occupying a position on his flank. Perhaps he marches on Parma directly to try and extract a recognition of his rights by Duke Philip himself (assuming Philip didn't immediately flee the duchy as soon as Sardinian troops crossed the border). Or perhaps CE's forcible assertion of his rights to Piacenza works just fine and the Bourbons give in, emboldening CE to try the same trick with Finale a little while later - after all, wasn't he promised Finale by the Treaty of Worms too? If the Bourbons didn't go to war for their kinsman Philip, surely they wouldn't go to war for some tiny piece of land controlled by the pathetic Republic of Genoa - right?

Sometimes stupid shit starts wars, and there are any number of ways that mistakes, misunderstandings, and miscalculations might turn the crisis over Piacenza into an actual shooting war. And if a shooting war starts in Italy in 1759, or shortly thereafter, it seems inevitable that it will be caught up in the broader SYW in one way or another.

 

[unprincipled peter]

What is the timing of this Italian dust-up? Ferdinand is scheduled to die in August 1759. Prior to that, he's been just lying around, depressed (or, according to speculation, rapidly declining from a brain condition), waiting to die, leaving Spain without leadership. After his death, brother Francisco claimed the Spanish throne by the logic that he's on the scene, while his two older brothers are out of country with thrones of their own. Wiki says Elizabeth Farnese acted as Regent until Carlos arrived, which tells me she wasn't going along with Francisco.

IF the bullets start flying in the first half of '59, Carlos isn't getting support from Spain, at least not right away. Does Elizabeth have enough life left in her to stage a coup over the all but checked out Ferdinand, in support of her two sons who are at war in Italy? Could she be a factor in forcing Carlos to support brother Felipe keeping some sort of throne? Farnese is getting long in the tooth, and has been on the sidelines for a while, so maybe she doesn't have the energy in her, but, I presume that if she has one last fight in her, she'll be angling for Spain to support the Italian Bourbons. IF Spain remains in leaderless limbo while Ferdinand still breathes, Spain is sitting on the sidelines. After he dies, though? Could Francisco muster any support on a platform of keeping Spain out of the conflict? Even if Farnese is steering the throne to Carlos, is the country in any mood to support Carlos with war? Or does Carlos have to tread lightly, depending more on France for support in Italy?

I presume this plays havoc on France's plans for a longshot invasion of England. Naval battles are probably altered. Britain is likely to beef up forces in the Mediterranean, but still has to keep forces near home to stave off any invasion. Plus, although winning around the globe colonially, the job isn't done, and Pitt will continue to put priority there. Britain mostly likely still retains naval superiority, but France might get lucky and keep enough naval forces to at least pretend to be a threat. Who knows, maybe it's a Catholic wind that finally blows and a true miracle happens with some sort of French tie, or even, gasp, victory.

So, my guess is that Spain is of not much help in '59. They may not be of much help in '60. Carlos will be busy in Italy, so he won't be able to shore up his position in Spain. Depending on how much traction Francisco is gaining in Spain, Carlos may have to abandon the Italian battlefield to go to Spain. '59 is NOT a good timing for the Italian sphere to burst into war. France will have to join in, which dooms the invasion plans, and thus the war. Austria will have to divert some forces to Italy to protect Milan. Savoy gets squashed. This may work to Spain's advantage, as Carlos might realize the extent of Spain's unreadiness for major war, especially if Spain eventually gets involved and is ineffective. Resources, both Spanish and French, may be so spent that there won't be any notion of a Portuguese invasion.

On the flip side, Pitt might try to force a declaration of war on Spain. If he fails, does he go into exile earlier than OTL? If he gets it, how does the Anglo-Spanish war go? Britain is gaining in North America, but they aren't there yet. OTL, Spain entered the war AFTER the French and Indian War was decided, so British forces could be redeployed to crush Spain. Here, the forces are still engaged elsewhere. Does this mean Pitt holds off declaring war on Spain? Pitt could be tickled pink with Spain be otherwise occupied and hold off. It'd be ironic if the opposition was all in favor of war, while Pitt was saying 'no, not yet'. Other than naval resources, maybe some money, Britain isn't getting involved in Italy. They'll attack Spanish colonial assets, but for '59 into '60, they are fully committed in the F & I W.