WI:Sardinia in the Austro-Prussian War

Say Napoleon the third doesn't back savoy in unification of Italy

Would Sardinia join the Austro-Prussian War on the side of Prussia

Would Sardinia be gain territory or annex the Hapsburg rulers of central Italy

Would France be more hostile to Italy
 

CatalanKing

Banned
Say Napoleon the third doesn't back savoy in unification of Italy

Would Sardinia join the Austro-Prussian War on the side of Prussia

Would Sardinia be gain territory or annex the Hapsburg rulers of central Italy

Would France be more hostile to Italy

Do you want the short Answer or the long?

At your service, Catalanking
 

CatalanKing

Banned
Either one :)

Long Answer: If Sardinia goes to war with Austria will try to grab some land which the French, especially Nappy III, won't like, leading them to either A) Declare War on Sardinia and, as a result, Prussia or B) Embargo Sardinia. These two can split into two separate scenarios. Tell me which one you want to hear. :)

At your service,

Catalanking
 
Long Answer: If Sardinia goes to war with Austria will try to grab some land which the French, especially Nappy III, won't like, leading them to either A) Declare War on Sardinia and, as a result, Prussia or B) Embargo Sardinia. These two can split into two separate scenarios. Tell me which one you want to hear.
Given they didn't care when Italy a larger and more powerful state allied with Prussia , Why would France care about Sardinia a far weaker and smaller state join the 1866 war. I can see long term hostility between the two without the goodwill of french help but why in 1866 .
 

CatalanKing

Banned
Given they didn't care when Italy a larger and more powerful state allied with Prussia , Why would France care about Sardinia a weaker state join the 1866. I can see long term hostility between the two without the goodwill of french help but why in 1866 .

There is one thing that France will never forgive Sardinia for. Allying with/Supporting Prussia. Remember, at this time, French Prussophobia was rising. Prussia was seen as the big enemy as at the time France was on Good terms with Britain and Austria, both Historical enemies of France, because France was scared of Prussia turning their eyes on them. Prussia was, arguably, seen as France's equal for a time and Nappy III hated it

Sardinia supporting Prussia will mean they are supporting the next big threat to France, something France would not, under any circumstance, agree with. Besides, in OTL, france was chomping at the bit to join the Austro-Prussian war of 1866 and Sardinia would only make it worse.

Did that make some sense?

At your service,

Catalanking
 
Sardinia supporting Prussia will mean they are supporting the next big threat to France, something France would not, under any circumstance, agree with. Besides, in OTL, france was chomping at the bit to join the Austro-Prussian war of 1866 and Sardinia would only make it worse.
So the Fact that Sardinia would be far weaker then Italy , would encourage France to join the war .
 

CatalanKing

Banned
So the Fact that Sardinia would be far weaker then Italy , would encourage France to join the war .

Yes. This would then Trigger Prussia's Alliance with Russia, which may trigger Great Britain to join to keep the Balance of power. So an earlier WW1 could happen with Austria and Russia trading allies and Sardinia being a friend of Prussia. Question is, whom would win this war.
 
The question is rather why Louis Napoleon did step back from his promise to support Sardinia against Austria.
The most likely reason is that (for once) Austria does not behave stupidly, like they did IOTL when they issued an ultimatum to Sardinia to force the to demobilize the army. If there is no ultimatum, it is still possible to avoid the war and let European diplomacy act.
This would not contribute to solve the Italian question in any way, since the political situation in the peninsula is already well above the boiling point. I'd expect that there might be significant insurrections in Italy in the short term (the Papal Legations and the duchies of Parma and Modena come to mind), and Austria would respond as usual: censorship, trials and military actions to prop up Modena and Parma.
From the point of view of Bismarck, an alliance with Sardinia would still be a good solution: he needs to get the Austrians busy on their southern border and Sardinia together with the unavoidable insurrections would be good enough for him.

The French emperor would not be upset anyway: in 1866 the German unification is still a pipe dream, even less feasible that it was IOTL since Italy has not unified. Austria will have blood on her hands, like Russia IOTL, and this would make her the target of dislike of the liberal press (in UK and France mostly). So Louis Napoleon would not make any move beyond what he did IOTL: try to bargain with Bismarck for compensation in exchange for his neutrality. Russia would still be in the Prussian corner, for the same reasons they were supporting her IOTL.

If anything, the non-war of 1859 may have the result of butterflying away the massive failure of the Prussian army during the mobilization of 1859. This might mean that there will be some kind of reform of the army, but it will not address the mobilization issues and the massive use of railways (which was tested in the 2nd Danish war IOTL) and may not even deal with the new infantry tactics (which ultimately were originated by the massive losses of Solferino). To compensate this, there will be no reform of the Austrian army either (it wasn't a great success IOTL, but at least the artillery pieces were mostly updated, and the artillery tactics improved).

The last butterfly might affect the health of Cavour: the years between 1857 and 1861 were very stressful for him, and ITTL some of the troubles might be butterflied away once Louis Napoleon does not intervene. It would probably mean that he would resign and possibly leave active politics for a while. OTOH his health might improve, and he could be back in 1861 and still have a few years on the scene.
 
Top