WI Saratoga wasn't torpedoed 11 January 1942?

Inspired by a comment here. (I've been here longer, & I've never seen this asked, either.)

So, what difference would it have made? I'm thinking an additional IJN CV sunk at Coral Sea (Zuikaku?), maybe Shokaku getting a bit worse luck limping home after (sunk by Sub Force; or maybe it's Shokaku sunk & Zuikaku sunk limping home), & no loss of Yorktown at Midway, for a start.

Any other ideas?
 
A decisive US victory at Coral Sea likely means no Battle of Midway. OTL the Japanese thought that the US could likely only muster a single carrier against them.
By their estimate:
Sara was sunk or in drydock
Lex and Yorktown were both sunk at Coral Sea
Plus there was some confusion about Langley being a full carrier when she was sunk and there was plenty of reason to suspect the US would be operating a TF in the south Pacific.

If Yamamoto has already lost Zuikaku at Coral Sea and suspects the USN could field up to five CVs around Midway, then I doubt he sends the Kido Butai out to Midway.
 
With five carriers available, it seems logical for the USN to keep two CVs in the Solomons/New Guinea/ Austrailia area, two carries raiding elsewhere and one refitting back at Pearl.

Would the Wasp stay in the Atlantic in this situation?
If she says then I could see her making additional club runs to Malta, freeing up Furious to accompany the Pedestal convey or maybe she would join the convoy herself.
 
Last edited:
...

If Yamamoto has already lost Zuikaku at Coral Sea and suspects the USN could field up to five CVs around Midway, then I doubt he sends the Kido Butai out to Midway.

Alternately he approves a less complex plan that concentrates more carriers with or near the Kito Butai. First by canceling the Alteutians operation. Or reducing its scope. Yamamoto badly wanted the Big Battle, and he expected it to culminate in a surface engagement where several more US battle ships and heavy crusaders would be sunk. So, while not guaranteed it is still possible to see a Midway operation executed.

The alternate is Yamamoto goes along with the proposed Fiji/Samoa Operation and aims for a midsized Decisive Battle against just a portion of the US fleet in the South East Pacific. That results in the historical battles in the SPac but larger. Since so much of the navies fuel reserves are not expended in the Midway operation they are available to expend in the SPac. That may result in just more than two BB on each side entering combat.
 
If Saratoga is in fine shape, would they send out Yorktown in the condition she was in when she got back from Coral Sea? She was a MESS! I'd guess that they would.
 
The alternate is Yamamoto goes along with the proposed Fiji/Samoa Operation and aims for a midsized Decisive Battle against just a portion of the US fleet in the South East Pacific. That results in the historical battles in the SPac but larger. Since so much of the navies fuel reserves are not expended in the Midway operation they are available to expend in the SPac. That may result in just more than two BB on each side entering combat.

That would be a good strategy to draw the USN into an area where the IJN could take advantage of land based aircraft and subs patrolling between islands.
 
With five carriers available, it seems logical for the USN to keep two CVs in the Solomons/New Guinea/ Austrailia area, two carries raiding elsewhere and one refitting back at Pearl.
That suggests Watchtower goes better, with more/less guaranteed CV air on top til Henderson Field is running. Also suggests another CV skirmish, in SWPA, over control of the Solomons.
Would the Wasp stay in the Atlantic in this situation?
If she says then I could see her making additional club runs to Malta, freeing up Furious to accompany the Pedestal convey or maybe she would join the convoy herself.
That sounds likely. And it makes me wonder if that adds another CV to Judgment, with more damage done at Taranto as a result.
If Saratoga is in fine shape, would they send out Yorktown in the condition she was in when she got back from Coral Sea? She was a MESS! I'd guess that they would.
I'd guess held, as not necessary--but there's an even chance she wouldn't have been as badly hurt, with an additional USN CV at Coral Sea.

I'm less sure it butterflies Midway, given Japan's panic over Doolittle & Yamamoto's desire to draw out & destroy the USN. Might it delay MI? (Tho TBH, I'm not sure what IJN gains by waiting...)

Could this actually lead to an earlier Japanese pullback to the "Rabaul Line" (so to speak), shortening Japan's perimeter--& actually increasing her a/c strength in the short term?:eek: It has the advantages of Carl Schwamberger's proposal, too--& the reduced use of FO for both MI & no Tokyo Express means more IJN flexibility much longer, right up through the U.S. invasion of the P.I. (presuming that goes ahead as scheduled...& provided English {Nimitz} doesn't raise the priority on tankers for the Sub Force in the meantime...)

This is the first WI I think I've ever seen where lower U.S. losses may help Japan.:eek:
 
Top