WI Santa Anna killed at the Alamo...

During the siege of the Alamo, the defenders had two chances to kill Santa Anna himself. On Feb. 27th, the Texans caught sight of Santa Anna riding with his escort along the Mexican lines, and they opened fire on him... however, he was at very long range, and no one hit him. On March 1st, the Texans used a 12 pound cannon and took a shot at a house in town where it seemed that there was a lot of activity... this turned out to be Santa Anna's headquarters. The cannonball did smash into the house, but Santa Anna wasn't there, so he again escaped injury.
Let us suppose that either of these events resulted in Santa Anna's death... what happens next? It's hard to imagine that the Mexicans would have panicked and lifted the siege, but the other generals present didn't have his authority or political sense. However, it's very likely that they would have done as they wanted to do in the first place and wait a few days for the arrival of heavier cannons than they had at the time... and then batter down the walls of the Alamo from a safe distance.
At the same time, it is likely that the remaining generals would have been more generous to the defeated Texans; Santa Anna ordered the execution of both the handful of surviving Texans at the Alamo and the other Texans captured at Goliad. He did this over the objections of his officers, and if slain, it is likely that whichever general took over would have spared them. Interestingly, one of the Alamo survivors was likely Davey Crockett, so he would have survived the battle in this POD.
Another big question is if there was anything like a battle of San Jacinto, it would be much different. Houston won that battle partly because Santa Anna was impatient, refused to wait for reinforcements, and didn't bother to even post guards... his generals wouldn't have been so casual about the whole thing...
 
I imagine Mexico would be soon find itself thrown into political turmoil as Santa Anna's only talent seems have to been keeping the country together. Nothing like caudilloism to give you rule of the strongest. Texas would probably earn its independence largely because no one person has the will to keep Mexico's army together. Any way while the eventual ruler may end up being more competent a would imagine that getting balanced out by a couple years of internecine warfare and attempted secessions.
 
Hmmm, a very interesting question. At first I thought there might be a chance for a reconciliation (restoration of the 1824 constitution and separate statehood for Tejas), but either date is pretty close to March 2, when the convention at Washington-on-the-Brazos will proclaim Texas' Independence.

At first I thought the choice between either date was arbitrary, but I've discovered that on February 26, Fannin attempted to march to the Alamo and releive the garrison there (perhaps in response to Travis' letter 'To the People of Texas). If Santa Anna is killed the next day, Fannin may press harder and thus may arrive at the Alamo. This may prove crucial.

The Mexican Army has a tough choice: once word breaks out of Santa Anna's death, chaos might well errupt in Mexico (between centralistas and federalistas over the 1824 constitution). An ambitiuous general might conclude however that defeating the Texans a necessary to arriving back in Mexico victorious (and hence the new Presidente). A more conservative might be tempted to withdraw.

The issue might depend on General Urrea, in command of the force sent against the fort at Goliad, near Refugio. Now, I don't think it's likely that Fannin and his men manage to hold out against him, but he may not press the attack. Certainly, he will not massacre the officers (he vigorously protested Santa Anna's order). Urrea had been the primary victor of the Mexican campaign (Santa Anna had been jealous of the headlines he was grabbing). If Urrea's notoreity depends on continued victory against the Texans, he will press on against the Texians. This is my current best guess on the behavior of the Mexican armed forces: confusion for a week until Urrea can assert overall command. Note that several notable were in command of brigades under Santa Anna, including General Cos (who had been forced to surrender the Alamo in 1835). Others included Joaquin Ramirez y Sesma and Manuel F. Castrillon.

Now, however, the choice of date is crucial because it will decide whether there remain two forces (one at the Alamo, one on the coast) or whether forces converge at the Alamo. Tentatively, I would say that if the forces remain divided, then Urrea will force a battle against Fannin and may try to order or persuade an assualt on the Alamo. This may be difficult, since the assualt forces will not have the driving force of Santa Anna behind them. Probably they do win, since the Alamo was a difficult fort to defend and made more so by Travis' paltry force and lack of supplies. This probably leaves Sam Houston confronting a more capable, less distractable general moving further east for a final confrontation. I doubt whether Urrea makes camp at a bend in a river as Santa Anna did at San Jacinto, but the further east Urrea is forced to go in search of Houston, the more the advantage goes to Houston and his riflemen. Given the daring of his tactics at San Jacinto, he may find a similar battlefield and force a battle on his terms against Urrea.

If however the date is February 27 and Fannin merges his force with Travis', then the Texan forces at the Alamo are increased from about 150 to 450; Fannin also brought 9 cannon, increasing the Alamo's force to about 30. (There will be some bit a skirmish about who's in command: Travis had nominally been elected by the troops, but had assumed joint command with Bowie, who was sick; however, Fannin outranks Travis in the regular army).

If more reinforcements come on March 1 per OTL, the number would increase to almost 500 with George Kimball's Gonzales Ranging Company. In addition to the Army of Operations in place, numbering 6,000 with 20 cannon, Urrea would bring 80 dragoons and about 700 men. In total, 7,000 vs 500 (assuming no additional reinforcements in reply to Fannin's letter). The inrease in my opinion gives a bit more of an edge to the defenders, since they now have enough to cover more of the advances. Also, the Mexicans are liable to be demoralized and divided, since there may not be a clear chain of command and Urrea's arrival will likely complicate matters. Additionally, if Santa Anna has been killed and Fannin has arrived to "in answer to Travis' call," then more volunteers might trickle into the Alamo to further supplement the defenders.

In order to 'win,' the defenders will need to sucessfully repulse an assault; their increased number should make that easier: OTL, between 1,200 and 1,800 Mexican were sent against the Alamo on March 6. Even if it's not less (which it might be), I presume the Texians ability to inflict incommensurate losses on the Mexicans continues. OTL, 150-200 defenders managed to kill about 200 and wound 300; a force of 500 might be expected to inflict between 1,250 and 1,665 casualties. The incommensurate casualties occur because of the Texans' advantage over the Mexican infantry and because the Mexicans are of course storming an armed position. Hence, it's not hard to imagine the Texians might be able to hold out for some time. In which case, there's time for Houston to take his force west to further supplement their numbers or counter seige the Mexican forces. At or before which time, the Mexicans may of course decide to withdraw. The longer they stay, the greater the chance for a fair degree of chaos in Mexico itself.

In both situations, there's a great degree of uncertainty about the political settlement of the campaign. I think this largely depends on the outcome of events in Mexico itself, which I'm not very knowledgeable of.

All in all, a very interesting POD!
 
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