During the siege of the Alamo, the defenders had two chances to kill Santa Anna himself. On Feb. 27th, the Texans caught sight of Santa Anna riding with his escort along the Mexican lines, and they opened fire on him... however, he was at very long range, and no one hit him. On March 1st, the Texans used a 12 pound cannon and took a shot at a house in town where it seemed that there was a lot of activity... this turned out to be Santa Anna's headquarters. The cannonball did smash into the house, but Santa Anna wasn't there, so he again escaped injury.
Let us suppose that either of these events resulted in Santa Anna's death... what happens next? It's hard to imagine that the Mexicans would have panicked and lifted the siege, but the other generals present didn't have his authority or political sense. However, it's very likely that they would have done as they wanted to do in the first place and wait a few days for the arrival of heavier cannons than they had at the time... and then batter down the walls of the Alamo from a safe distance.
At the same time, it is likely that the remaining generals would have been more generous to the defeated Texans; Santa Anna ordered the execution of both the handful of surviving Texans at the Alamo and the other Texans captured at Goliad. He did this over the objections of his officers, and if slain, it is likely that whichever general took over would have spared them. Interestingly, one of the Alamo survivors was likely Davey Crockett, so he would have survived the battle in this POD.
Another big question is if there was anything like a battle of San Jacinto, it would be much different. Houston won that battle partly because Santa Anna was impatient, refused to wait for reinforcements, and didn't bother to even post guards... his generals wouldn't have been so casual about the whole thing...
Let us suppose that either of these events resulted in Santa Anna's death... what happens next? It's hard to imagine that the Mexicans would have panicked and lifted the siege, but the other generals present didn't have his authority or political sense. However, it's very likely that they would have done as they wanted to do in the first place and wait a few days for the arrival of heavier cannons than they had at the time... and then batter down the walls of the Alamo from a safe distance.
At the same time, it is likely that the remaining generals would have been more generous to the defeated Texans; Santa Anna ordered the execution of both the handful of surviving Texans at the Alamo and the other Texans captured at Goliad. He did this over the objections of his officers, and if slain, it is likely that whichever general took over would have spared them. Interestingly, one of the Alamo survivors was likely Davey Crockett, so he would have survived the battle in this POD.
Another big question is if there was anything like a battle of San Jacinto, it would be much different. Houston won that battle partly because Santa Anna was impatient, refused to wait for reinforcements, and didn't bother to even post guards... his generals wouldn't have been so casual about the whole thing...