WI: Santa Anna dies in 1824?

Rush Tarquin

Gone Fishin'
What if Santa Anna dies mid-1824? No suspension of the constitution. Is there an 1825 market crash? Do Texas, Rio Grande and Yucatan all still declare independence? Can Mexico remain more politically stable and attract investment? Is Mexico stronger or weaker in the long run?
 
It could go anyway really, almost any caudillo/general could arrive to power could act the way Santa Anna did. However, I don't believe anyone could have been the political survivor that he was. If Santa Anna dies as early as 1824,

there is a possibility that the 1824 constitution can survive for a longer time. Mexico is still going to have a hard time economically, as it has debts to pay and most of its wealthy elite left. The situation will still be ripe for a Santa Anna-like dictator to rise to power. However a few things will change:

Whoever replaces Santa Anna will not be abandoning the capital whenever they feel like it to go fight in the frontier or retire back to their hacienda. Thus you can expect a steadier and more responsible government. (Even if not by much).

Santa Anna was an incredibly divisive figure to begin with. The Rio Grande Republic was set up not with the goal of independence but with the goal of sticking it to Santa Anna. A different head of state will give you different reactions.

A different head of state could also be much more willing to negotiate with the US about border issues, and those pesky immigrants in Texas.

Texas and Yucatan are likely to try for independence regardless. However anyone else would react to those situations much more efficiently than Santa Anna. Perhaps the initial Texas revolt is crushed, but incoming immigrants, tensions with the US, and Mexico's need for money might result in a peaceful arrangement.

Meanwhile Yucatan, like in OTL, is likely to end back up in Mexican hands. But with less issues to deal with this would be accomplished sooner and better than in OTL.

Overall if you look at Santa Anna's behavior, personality, and record it is very hard to imagine a Mexico coming out worse without him. I'll say you are looking at a stabler and saner Mexico. In the long run much better. Even if in the short run it might still get pushed around a bit.

Best case scenario Mexico get someone very smart. Texas, with the border at the Nueces and Pecos River as well as anything north of the 37th or 38th parallel is sold to the US for a good 50 million or so. Mexico uses to pay of its debts. And if a transcontinental railroad is in place between Veracruz and Acapulco before the California gold rush starts, then Mexico becomes a major throughway between the Atlantic and the Pacific and can only benefit from there on.
 
Depends. Santa Anna was the biggest reason on why both the liberals and the conservatives radicalized so much during the time period, so with him out of the picture, I can see that both parties are going to be more moderate, and (hopefully) less willing to start armed rebellions just because their ideas fail to take traction.

Anyway, without him and the promulgation of the conservative centralist regime and the Siete Leyes, it's likely that Guatemala will remain as a part of Mexico, and Yucatán remains in confederation with Mexico, thus, more likely to suppress the Caste Wars, possibly ending them earlier. About Texas, it would depend on what would be TTL's Congress' reaction to the Anglo demands in Texas (which were for them to have their own representation in the congress, and splitting Texas off from Tamaulipas). Best-case scenario it will end up confederated with Mexico, thus, having representation in the Mexican government, but not enough to present a threat to the national interests. Worst-case scenario, there's armed rebellion, which will get promptly smashed, and new incoming Anglos are forced to resettle somewhere else.

Finally, if there's a Mexican-American war (which is inevitable), possibly they'll manage to drag the war down into a more coherent settlement instead of the vindictive Guadalupe-Hidalgo treaty we got OTL.
 
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