WI: Safavids decisively win the battle of chaldiran
- Thread starter Sirdragon
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The Safavids can not beat the Ottomans in Chaldiran. Their only possibility of success is to wait out until the Ottomans leave. Selim I was forced to abandon Tabriz due to the soldiers not wanting to fight any longer. Considering the Ottoman Army has much more numbers and also have gunpowder and muskets the Safavids will have to live with making more casualties on Ottoman sides rather than destroying 60% of the Ottoman Army. They can't. The element of surprise is not enough for that.
As @Koprulu Mustafa Pasha said, the specific scenario is somewhat unrealistic. But if it happened — and less plausible things have — the result would be catastrophic.
Most Turks in eastern and central Anatolia had strong Aliid sympathies. Battlefield defeat and Selim’s death would prove to the majority of Anatolia that Ismail I really was the Mahdi reincarnate and lead to widespread rebellion in the area and sweeping Safavid advances. Ismail would almost certainly reach Konya, if not further west.
Thankfully, Selim’s heir was always Süleiman, so there would be a strong and relatively uncontested ruler at the helm of the empire to thwart the Safavids.
But the damage would very possibly be lasting. Retaking eastern Anatolia might be daunting given the terrain and the hardiness of its people. The Ottoman conquest of the Mamluks was somewhat of a fluke and probably won’t be replicated, especially since a defeat at Çaldiran would mean that Ottoman supply lines into Syria are extremely tenuous.
The Middle Eastern balance of power might then be tripartite, with two powerful empires (the Ottomans with an Aegean center of power and the Safavids with a core in the Iranian Plateau) contesting hegemony over a weak Egyptian state.
Most Turks in eastern and central Anatolia had strong Aliid sympathies. Battlefield defeat and Selim’s death would prove to the majority of Anatolia that Ismail I really was the Mahdi reincarnate and lead to widespread rebellion in the area and sweeping Safavid advances. Ismail would almost certainly reach Konya, if not further west.
Thankfully, Selim’s heir was always Süleiman, so there would be a strong and relatively uncontested ruler at the helm of the empire to thwart the Safavids.
But the damage would very possibly be lasting. Retaking eastern Anatolia might be daunting given the terrain and the hardiness of its people. The Ottoman conquest of the Mamluks was somewhat of a fluke and probably won’t be replicated, especially since a defeat at Çaldiran would mean that Ottoman supply lines into Syria are extremely tenuous.
The Middle Eastern balance of power might then be tripartite, with two powerful empires (the Ottomans with an Aegean center of power and the Safavids with a core in the Iranian Plateau) contesting hegemony over a weak Egyptian state.
“Assuming the caliphate” didn’t mean much. The title “Caliph” was super widespread in the Muslim world, even by little kingdoms in Africa and Indonesia, ever since the Mongol conquest if not earlier. The Ottomans called themselves caliphs before Çaldiran.
What did matter was the Ottoman pretension to the ancient title of the Protector of the Two Holy Cities, which of course would remain with the Mamluks if Ismail won.
Antep, Sivas, Amasya is a maybe for Ismail to reach but Central and Western Anatolia West of Kayseri is impossible to hold for Ismail. Another Ottoman Army will come, kill the Turkmen Rebels in the West and drive Ismail as East as Sivas.
You are right though about one thing. If Selim dies in battle the Turkmens between Bolu and Baghdad will be pro-Ismail and likely to revolt. Ismail will be considered as Mahdi. Suleiman will have its hands full with dealing in Anatolia. The results will be more than 40k deaths in Anatolia as with Selim. One might expect large depopulation of the land between Amasya, Erzincan and Mardin.