WI: Saddamn deposed after First Gulf War?

After the spectacular defeat and annihilation of the Iraqi Army at the hands of the US Army in the FGW, Iraq faced some serious problems. Most importantly, rebellions now that his scary and intimidating army was now burning or dead in the Kuwati sand. The Shia majority rose up in the Sha'aban Intifada in the South and the Kurds rose up in what they call the National Uprising in the North. Hussein used his Republican Guard to quell the dissent. Well lets say the Guard is beaten even more badly in the FGW and unable to fight the rebellion. In response the Shia are able to throw Hussein out of power while the Kurds take over Iraqi Kurdistan.

Would the US step in to restore order? Would the Saudi's or another Middle Eastern Power? Would the Shia government bring stability or would Iraq tumble into Civil War?
 
The Iranians would take advantage of the situation and make the rump Iraqi Shiite state into their puppet, the Sunnis would get nothing as there is no oil or other valuable stuff and so you'd have a fertile environment for Al-Qaeda. The Kurds being independent would make the Turks go ballistic and they'd probably invade or bomb the northern part of former Iraq.

It would have a been a disaster 20 years early
 
The Iranians would take advantage of the situation and make the rump Iraqi Shiite state into their puppet, the Sunnis would get nothing as there is no oil or other valuable stuff and so you'd have a fertile environment for Al-Qaeda. The Kurds being independent would make the Turks go ballistic and they'd probably invade or bomb the northern part of former Iraq.

It would have a been a disaster 20 years early

Iran isn't powerful enough in 1991 to do that or anything close as it was still hobbled by the Iran/Iraq War nor does al-Qaeda exist at this point.
 
Iran isn't powerful enough in 1991 to do that or anything close as it was still hobbled by the Iran/Iraq War nor does al-Qaeda exist at this point.
I actually believe it did-recall Bin Laden got kicked out of Saudi Arabia when the Saudi King refused his help in defending the country. And if it didn't it would have soon.

Iran wouldn't invade of course-they'd send aid and support to the Iraqi Shiites
 
I actually believe it did-recall Bin Laden got kicked out of Saudi Arabia when the Saudi King refused his help in defending the country. And if it didn't it would have soon.

Iran wouldn't invade of course-they'd send aid and support to the Iraqi Shiites

Bin Laden existed, but al-Qaeda did not. What was al-Qaeda would become was a terrorist outfit led by a bunch of vets from the Afghan war who wanted to get rid of the Saudi regime among others and rule the region and saw Coalition troops on the holy lands as a pretext to start to organize.

It would be many years before they were a functioning coherent organization. They took years in the 90s in training camps placed in Africa and Afghanistan to have a trained organization in place.

Saddam falls in 1991 there is not a huge jihadist contingent ready and organized to step in to wage an insurgency.
 
Bin Laden existed, but al-Qaeda did not. What was al-Qaeda would become was a terrorist outfit led by a bunch of vets from the Afghan war who wanted to get rid of the Saudi regime among others and rule the region and saw Coalition troops on the holy lands as a pretext to start to organize. But, it would be many years before they were a functioning coherent organization.

Saddam falls in 1991 there is not a huge jihadist contingent ready and organized to step in.
No but Bin Laden will take advantage of the situation anyway.
 
No but Bin Laden will take advantage of the situation anyway.

He may try, but Bin Laden is vastly overrated as an effective insurgent leader. He also would find 1992 Iraqi Sunni society not so welcoming to jihadists as Zarqawi found 2002 Iraqi Sunni society because a decade of state sponsored religious radicalization changed things fundamentally in Iraq.

Saddam helped to revolution proof Iraq in this way.
 
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