WI: Saddam Hussein accepts Bush's ultimatum and takes steps to avoid the invasion?

[Anti-GrammarNazi]

Saddam sees the US invasion is imminent, and as he already has enough wealth to live extremely well off, so he says "fuck it" and takes Bush's ultimatum to leave in 48 hours.

He knows that leaving is not enough, the best way to survive is to ensure he is not declared by the west as a criminal, plus he wouldnt like to live the rest of his life confined in whatever state accepts him and would like freedom of movement, something he cant do if the west if after him.

The first 24 hours are spent by him securing assylum in another country, immunity and swift purge of whoever might oppose his plans in the Baathist Party.

He makes a public broadcast in the remaining 24 hours with the following points:

- He and his family are leaving Iraq immediately, the relatively moderate Tariq Aziz will take his place.

- He and his replacement government agree to immediately allow UN inspectors to prove Iraq doesnt have WMDs

- If needed, they are even willing to allow the United Nations take temporary control over Iraq

- He claims he is doing everything for the well being of Iraq and to spare them from US aggression, and challenges Bush to keep his word unless he wants to be exposed as nothing more than a warmonger.

What would be the outcome of this? Would Bush still invade? What would happen to Saddam? If Bush still invaded could this make him lose in 2004?

 

[FBKampfer]

If Iraq is willing to just roll over, basically nothing happens and the US gains de facto control of the country's finances.


But we were pretty hell-bent on going to war. The goal posts kept getting moved while Sadam was trying to sprint his chubby ass through them. But we basically pulled a Poland with that one.

 

[Anti-GrammarNazi]

If Iraq is willing to just roll over, basically nothing happens and the US gains de facto control of the country's finances.


But we were pretty hell-bent on going to war. The goal posts kept getting moved while Sadam was trying to sprint his chubby ass through them. But we basically pulled a Poland with that one.

I honestly cant see how Bush can get around "they did exactly what I asked them to do and are inviting inspectors."

He would look like just outright wanting war, even more than OTL.

 

[Asp]

Part of me wants to say it's ASB but it wouldn't be the weirdest thing ever to happen so I guess it's thinly possible.

Whole thing is viewed as a smashing victory for George W., who trounces Kerry or whoever the Democrats nominate by the kind of margins his father beat Dukakis by. He goes down far better in history than he is viewed IOTL.

 

[Richard V]

New Iraqi government indict him for war crimes. Host country terminates his assylum. Saddam is tried and hanged.

 

[AlexG]

That would be YUGE win for Bush and America, no war, we find out there were no nukes but everyone gushes about how he solved the conflict 'diplomatically' and although the economy still crashes in '08, Bush is viewed as a great president.

The Middle East is saved from the vacuum of power of Iraq which opened the way for the Arab Spring and all the tumult that has occurred since then. Eventually a documentary about Saddam gets made which paints him as a deeply flawed person who did one thing right. The Iraqis will hate him like the Russians hate Gorbachev though.

 

[Francisco Cojuanco]

New Iraqi government indict him for war crimes. Host country terminates his assylum. Saddam is tried and hanged.

That's not how Middle Eastern exile tends to work, he'd probably end up in some mansion in Beirut or Qatar or something. Then the new Iraqi government pulls a Trotsky.

 

[starman]

Maybe Saddam could've tried another approach, albeit with only a slim chance of success. In the weeks prior to March 2003, he tells his closest supporters he'll pretend to give in. He sends a double with his closest family members into exile, and appoints a figurehead successor while ruling from a secret location in Iraq. Eventually his family sneaks back in and he becomes public head of state again after Bush's tenure is over and "the heat is off."

 

[Zajir]

New Iraqi government indict him for war crimes. Host country terminates his assylum. Saddam is tried and hanged.

The question is where does Saddam go, the best choice is Russia which will never extradite him.

 

[CJNyfalt]

The question is where does Saddam go, the best choice is Russia which will never extradite him.

Libya? Or maybe Sudan?

 

[starman]

The question is where does Saddam go, the best choice is Russia which will never extradite him.

But since 1990 Russia had turned its back on Saddam, left him in the lurch. If memory serves, in 2003 there was talk of going to Spain.

 

[Colonel Zoidberg]

although the economy still crashes in '08, Bush is viewed as a great president.

If the economy crashes after eight years of Dubya, he can forget being viewed as “great.” He’d be an upgrade from his father, but we would all be pretty sick of the GOP after an economic crash and his record would be, at least for a while, “He won for Halliburton and the rich; what did he win for you?” and whoever runs in 2008 would get beaten as badly as McCain did. By 2008 all the luster of Iraq had worn off and people were pretty pissed off about the economy, so while it would earn him a resounding win in 2004, it won’t do shit for his successor. And all the people in ‘04 clamoring to repeal the 22nd and give him a shot at a third term, if they do, will be very quiet in 2008.

 

[Don Corleone]

If the economy crashes after eight years of Dubya, he can forget being viewed as “great.” He’d be an upgrade from his father, but we would all be pretty sick of the GOP after an economic crash and his record would be, at least for a while, “He won for Halliburton and the rich; what did he win for you?” and whoever runs in 2008 would get beaten as badly as McCain did. By 2008 all the luster of Iraq had worn off and people were pretty pissed off about the economy, so while it would earn him a resounding win in 2004, it won’t do shit for his successor. And all the people in ‘04 clamoring to repeal the 22nd and give him a shot at a third term, if they do, will be very quiet in 2008.

Plus he still botches the Katrina response, alienates a good chunk of the GOP base with his amnesty proposal, and takes a PR hit from the Abramoff and Foley scandals due to it being his party.

Aziz might not be the best replacement. He's a Christian and that would be an incendiary to the AQ types.

 

[Anti-GrammarNazi]

If this makes Dubya really universally liked, he could play it smart and play the long game to pass in history as a truly great president.

Do not run in 2004 and quit while winning, have another Republican win who will take the blame for the crash.

Get 8 years of Obama and when the inevitable Democratic weariness sets in then come back in 2016 to "set things straight" completely annihilating Donald Trump and destroying Hillary, of course winning the popular vote as well.

Bush runs his second term 2016-2020 with overwhelming support, possibly scoring landslide victories like his immigration reform and quit in 2020 in extremely high approval ratings.

Bush becomes enshrined in Republican lore alongside the likes of Reagan.

 

[FBKampfer]

I honestly cant see how Bush can get around "they did exactly what I asked them to do and are inviting inspectors."

He would look like just outright wanting war, even more than OTL.

As I said, nothing much happens if the Iraqis roll over and play dead.



And I think you're ignoring much of the anti-establishment mentality of the 2016 election, who's roots run far deeper than the Bush era.

If Bush runs again in 16, Trump still wallops the snot out of the rest of the field. The 2016 election on the republican side was never about the policy for the most part, it was about Jesus and sticking it to those no good politicians and them over-edumacated liberal elites. The only policy issue Trump even had a semicogent answer for was immigration, with a big ass wall being his answer.


The Republicans married an asinine of amalgamation of religion, economic illiteracy, and nationalism in 08, and now the Tea Party divorced them and made-off with half of their shit.

The Republican old guard were fated to lose in 2008 for nigh on 30 years and the only hope they have of recovery in 2016 is to simply cede 8 years of defeat and powerlessness. But their increasing bellicosity and fervor pushed them to trade their shot at the 2016 election for riding the brakes during the Obama Administration.


These problems run far deeper than the scope of your thread. Minus the Iraq War, Bush was mostly just along for the ride, just like the old guard in 2016.

 

[GeographyDude]

. . . But we were pretty hell-bent on going to war. . .

We had certainly put our pride on the line.

Once public ultimatums are made, it's almost like the goose is cooked. It's hard for us who made them, and it's also hard for the other side who received them. Somehow we have to find a way to walk back step by step from the precipice.

So, for Hussein to surrender all at once, and really almost do it the right way, borderline ASB. But like someone said, weirder things have happened in the history of the world.

 

[GeographyDude]

. . . I think you're ignoring much of the anti-establishment mentality of the 2016 election, who's roots run far deeper than the Bush era. . .

To me, it goes back to 1979 maybe earlier, and the erosion of middle-class jobs.

People assume it's a zero sum game, that if they and the people they know in rural and small town America are losing jobs, then someone else such as African-Americans, or Hispanics, or "immigrants, " or "liberals" are gaining.

But no, it's a strange economy in which you do have positive GDP growth but so much of it is accumulating at the top that the middle is shrinking.

The vaulted "service economy" never really panned out all that well. It never replaced the large number of middle-income jobs lost in manufacturing. And I think it's going to be largely the same with the "information economy."

 

[AltHistoryNerd]

Plus he still botches the Katrina response, alienates a good chunk of the GOP base with his amnesty proposal, and takes a PR hit from the Abramoff and Foley scandals due to it being his party.

Aziz might not be the best replacement. He's a Christian and that would be an incendiary to the AQ types.

Hurricanes are random events, so you can't count on a hurricane hitting New Orleans destroying his presidency. Let's say Katrina becomes just another Category 1 hurricane that splits Florida and makes a landfall as a cat 2 in the South Banks of the Carolinas? (Which, BTW, was a possible path for the storm). Katrina isn't associated with Bush. It's just another storm in a year that had plenty of powerful hurricanes.

 

[Philip]

Hurricanes are random events, so you can't count on a hurricane hitting New Orleans destroying his presidency

Even if Katrina occurs as OTL, no Iraq war could easily change how Katrina plays out. The country will have different resource availability and allocation. With a Bush diplomatic victory in Iraq, the media may have a changed perception of Bush with a commensurate change in coverage.

 

[Dave Howery]

no invasion also means none of the huge expense involved, no sidetracking of our troops to Iraq... so what happens in Afghanistan? More funding, more troops?