WI Saddam Hassan stays friendly to the USA
- Thread starter Syphon
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Solomaxwell6
Banned
Not going to effect 9/11. It's been more or less disproven that Hussein had anything to do with it; even if he did, I doubt Al Qaeda would've gone to him with information if they saw him as an American puppet, you know?
Probably somewhat cheaper oil, although it's not like costs would be slashed a great deal.
What would be interesting is what happens in the absence of the Iraq War, however. Afghanistan would be in much better shape if we had twice the resources, entirely focused over there, instead of half the resources with a strong focus on Iraq. So while Afghanistan certainly wouldn't be paradise, it might actually be a viable state instead of a shithole that has hardly more political unity than Somalia.
Probably somewhat cheaper oil, although it's not like costs would be slashed a great deal.
What would be interesting is what happens in the absence of the Iraq War, however. Afghanistan would be in much better shape if we had twice the resources, entirely focused over there, instead of half the resources with a strong focus on Iraq. So while Afghanistan certainly wouldn't be paradise, it might actually be a viable state instead of a shithole that has hardly more political unity than Somalia.
oberdada
Gone Fishin'
He did!
He never expected the US to get so angry about his little invasion of Kuweit!
So you have to be a bit more specific about the POD!
No invasion, or US tolerating it?
Lets say he doesn't invade and remains on good terms with the USA.
Then Sadda can remain a good little despot who is a bulwark against the forces of evil.
As for 9/11 I put that in because Bin laden didn't like Saddam very much and might have tried to destabilise Iraq like what happened after Saddam fell.
oberdada
Gone Fishin'
Iraq was almost bankrupt in 1990.
Saddam realy needed Cash, and Oil wasn't bringing that much.
So let's say Kuweit helps with half a billion US$ to help pay of some of Iraqs war debts, (saddam demanded 1 billion $) and that's it.
I really think this POD would butterfly away 9/11.
US troups in Saudi-Arabia (the holy land with Mecca and Medina) was a very important point in the radicalisation of Bin Laden.
Without that, he might have not seen the USA as the main Enemy.
Saddam realy needed Cash, and Oil wasn't bringing that much.
So let's say Kuweit helps with half a billion US$ to help pay of some of Iraqs war debts, (saddam demanded 1 billion $) and that's it.
I really think this POD would butterfly away 9/11.
US troups in Saudi-Arabia (the holy land with Mecca and Medina) was a very important point in the radicalisation of Bin Laden.
Without that, he might have not seen the USA as the main Enemy.
If Saddam had been friends with the US Desert storm would not have happened. It is likely that there would not be the US presence in SaudiaArabia and Kuwait.
As I understand their pathology infidles in the heartland was the main thing that caused Aq Quaeda to come into being.
No Al Quaeda changes lots.
Also if it had been more obvious that DAddy Bush might lose in 1992 there would have been a different and large lot of Democrats seeking nomination. I do not think Clinton is elected in 1992
As I understand their pathology infidles in the heartland was the main thing that caused Aq Quaeda to come into being.
No Al Quaeda changes lots.
Also if it had been more obvious that DAddy Bush might lose in 1992 there would have been a different and large lot of Democrats seeking nomination. I do not think Clinton is elected in 1992
Iraq never invades Kuwait, instead Saddam closes some major deals with the Americans and French to modernise the Iraqi oil industry. Iraq starts exporting oil big style. A pipeline is built from Iraq through Turkey ending in Antalya, which then becomes a major hub for oil traffic.
As a nice side effect, the Turks and Iraqis are allowed to continue their campaign against the Kurds, who are stupid enough to attack the pipeline construction sites.
This pretty much leads to the US and Europe granting Iraq and Turkey a green light to butcher the Kurds, in order to safeguard the pipeline.
By 1999, Iraq's economy has grown strong. Saddam abandons all WMD projects after signing international treaties and receiving assurements from the US, that they will safeguard him against the Iranians. Only the existing stockpile of chemical weapons is maintained.
Iran is following all these developments and decides to develop and produce WMDs as fast it can.
In 2001 evidence of this is made public by Israeli agents. Massive international pressure by all sides is made felt to Iran. However its leadership ignores it.
In 2002 a multinational force of Arab nations led by US troops invades Iran from different locations:
1. One major operation from the West through Iraqi territory with Iraqi and Saudi divisions heavily involved in the action.
2. One landing operation by Marines around the straits of Hormuz.
3. One smaller invasion with mainly light forces through Afghanistan (which by then has come under the control of US forces, following 9/11).
Irani troops deploy chemical and biological weapons as a last ditch measure and even manage to launch one missile at Israel. It hits a smaller village killing about 200 Israelis.
The Israeli leadership goes mad and nukes Tehran with 3 Jericho IRBMs.
As a nice side effect, the Turks and Iraqis are allowed to continue their campaign against the Kurds, who are stupid enough to attack the pipeline construction sites.
This pretty much leads to the US and Europe granting Iraq and Turkey a green light to butcher the Kurds, in order to safeguard the pipeline.
By 1999, Iraq's economy has grown strong. Saddam abandons all WMD projects after signing international treaties and receiving assurements from the US, that they will safeguard him against the Iranians. Only the existing stockpile of chemical weapons is maintained.
Iran is following all these developments and decides to develop and produce WMDs as fast it can.
In 2001 evidence of this is made public by Israeli agents. Massive international pressure by all sides is made felt to Iran. However its leadership ignores it.
In 2002 a multinational force of Arab nations led by US troops invades Iran from different locations:
1. One major operation from the West through Iraqi territory with Iraqi and Saudi divisions heavily involved in the action.
2. One landing operation by Marines around the straits of Hormuz.
3. One smaller invasion with mainly light forces through Afghanistan (which by then has come under the control of US forces, following 9/11).
Irani troops deploy chemical and biological weapons as a last ditch measure and even manage to launch one missile at Israel. It hits a smaller village killing about 200 Israelis.
The Israeli leadership goes mad and nukes Tehran with 3 Jericho IRBMs.
oberdada
Gone Fishin'
Oil prizes where very low in the early nineties, so bousting Iraqi production won't work that easy for fixing the countries finacial deficit.
We are talking of 26billion$ debts to Saudi-Arabia and 8billion to Kuwait here.
Iraq will simply have to stop paying money to its creditors.
And despite the long war, or maybe because of it, there is this large Iraqi army, which doesn't have a lot to, except fight the occasional uprising by Kurds and Shiits.
So the Iraqi Soldiers need something to do.
Something like fighting along Azerbaijan against Armenia.
Or what about Iraqi peacekeepers under UN mandat in Bosnia 1995?
There would be a growing fundamental islamic opposition in Iraq like we see in most Arab countries today (in OTL), but it will be a divided opposition.
We are talking of 26billion$ debts to Saudi-Arabia and 8billion to Kuwait here.
Iraq will simply have to stop paying money to its creditors.
And despite the long war, or maybe because of it, there is this large Iraqi army, which doesn't have a lot to, except fight the occasional uprising by Kurds and Shiits.
So the Iraqi Soldiers need something to do.
Something like fighting along Azerbaijan against Armenia.
Or what about Iraqi peacekeepers under UN mandat in Bosnia 1995?
There would be a growing fundamental islamic opposition in Iraq like we see in most Arab countries today (in OTL), but it will be a divided opposition.
Saddam staying friend with USA is rather easy.
When he asks, in veiled words, what would be the US reaction if he were to invade Kuweit, the US ambassador actually understand the question asked and answers in unambiguous terms ( OTL Saddam thought he had had a verbal agreement that the US would do nothing. WHich was definitely NOT what the US ambassador wanted to say ). So, able to back down without loss of face, Saddam does not invade but pressure Kuwait in some other way to get money out of them ( or the Saudi ).
Effect on 9/11/01 is indirect, as already explained. If AQ planned the attacks because of US presence in Mecca, then they won't occur. If this was just a pretext, AQ will find another one and the attacks won't change.
When he asks, in veiled words, what would be the US reaction if he were to invade Kuweit, the US ambassador actually understand the question asked and answers in unambiguous terms ( OTL Saddam thought he had had a verbal agreement that the US would do nothing. WHich was definitely NOT what the US ambassador wanted to say ). So, able to back down without loss of face, Saddam does not invade but pressure Kuwait in some other way to get money out of them ( or the Saudi ).
Effect on 9/11/01 is indirect, as already explained. If AQ planned the attacks because of US presence in Mecca, then they won't occur. If this was just a pretext, AQ will find another one and the attacks won't change.
Also one large butterfly if there is no Desert Shield, Storm, or Sabre is that China would more than likely maintain its military policy of "quanity is a quality all its own" (I know its not a Chinese quote but it seems to fit the situation) instead of beginning to downsize and modernize their armed forces. The main reason they began to do so in OTL was that the Iraqis, using essentially identical equipment and doctrine, got their arses hand to them on a shining silver platter after only 100 hours of ground operations. Therefore I would conclude, that without the wakeup call Desert Storm provided the PRC would most likely maintain a much larger, and less effective, army, with few if any attempts to move away from Soviet-based doctrine and ideas, due both to intellectual stagnation inside the PLA after fifty some years of quanitative superiority being a sole tenent of PLA doctrine and lack of any dramatic external stimuli proving that the doctrine is outdated as a method of conducting third generation warfare.
Eh? The PRC was more like Tito's Yugoslav army than the Soviet one it started out as a partisan force and kept many of those ideas
Also I hate it when people mindlessly bash the Soviet-based doctrine because the USA beat the crap out of a third world force.
Soviet doctrine was pretty good but it only worked if the country practicing it was the Soviet Union.
Hell we wouldn't expect US clients in South America to be able to use US doctrine effectively the military doctrine of a superpower only works for a superpower...My impression was that it was resentment of US forces in Mecca that created Al Quaeda
Derek, since there were no US forces in or near Mecca that seems unlikely.
Urban fox, how would we know? The last war the Soviets won ended in 1945 so we can't make too many assumptions about their doctrine.
fhaessig, no doubt there are many interesting details we'll never learn about how completely Ambassador Glaspie screwed the pooch and whether she did it alone or took the fall to protect a higher up. In all honesty, since the only superiors she had were both long-time Saudi supporters(Bush the Elder and James Baker) I suspect her own incompetence or cowardice was decisive.
Urban fox, how would we know? The last war the Soviets won ended in 1945 so we can't make too many assumptions about their doctrine.
fhaessig, no doubt there are many interesting details we'll never learn about how completely Ambassador Glaspie screwed the pooch and whether she did it alone or took the fall to protect a higher up. In all honesty, since the only superiors she had were both long-time Saudi supporters(Bush the Elder and James Baker) I suspect her own incompetence or cowardice was decisive.
Sorry about saying US forces in Mecca I should have said in Saudi Arabia more generally. I do think that it was reaction to US forces on Holy ground which allowed Osama to get his particular group of crazies together.
And I repeat without Desert Shield and Desert Storm there would not have been US forces in those areas.
And I repeat without Desert Shield and Desert Storm there would not have been US forces in those areas.
Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy
Banned
Saddam Hassan? Never heard of 'im.
He wasn't the friendly despot - that role was filled by Mubarak and King Fahd - just someone they needed until '88. Remember those Iraqi Scuds and MiG-25s and T-72s? Ever wonder why you don't hear anything about the US having to fight its own products in the Gulf War?
What would the effects be on Lebanon? In OTL the United States agreed to allow Syria to crush Michel Aoun's Lebanese military in East Beirut because he was backed by Iraq.
He wasn't the friendly despot - that role was filled by Mubarak and King Fahd - just someone they needed until '88. Remember those Iraqi Scuds and MiG-25s and T-72s? Ever wonder why you don't hear anything about the US having to fight its own products in the Gulf War?
What would the effects be on Lebanon? In OTL the United States agreed to allow Syria to crush Michel Aoun's Lebanese military in East Beirut because he was backed by Iraq.
It might. Usama appears to be angry because US had armed forces on "holy ground", that beeing Saudi Arabia, and no Gulf war means no US forces.
Well, Usama might be angry anyway but remember the butterfly effect.
One tiny problem with your scenario. If Israel get involved, the Arab nations would all pull out and reach separate peace agreements with the Iranians.
Dr Pervez Hoodbhoy
Banned
Bin Laden could target Russia because of Chechnya and Tajikistan, India because of Kashmir, China over Xinjiang, Israel for being Israel, Iran for being Iran, any secular Muslim state, any non-Muslim state engaged in some sort of fighting against Muslims (Yugoslavia, the Philippines, etc). I'd say Russia and India would be at the top of his shit list.