Ideal POD-He does rather better in Gulf War 1, and manages to take Arabistan.... having rather more oil, and suffering less losses in a shorter war then OTL, he is less in debt to the Kuwaitis....allowing him to put more funds into his nuclear program(partially because of the Arabistan oil as well). Somewhere between 1992 and 1995 he develops nukes, then invades Kuwait and the Oil provinces of Saudi Arabia. No one is prepared to invade, as he holds nukes, and an enormous part of the world oil supply.... the US is unable to react to the Iraqi invasion in time, and by the time they are prepared, the Iraqis are quite cappable of turning off the taps to the oil, thus causing a world wide recession, and perhaps depression.
Eventually an agreement is reached, were Iraqi control of Kuwait and Arabistan is recognized, in return for a withdrawal from SA's Persian gulf territories.
Your not going to get much further then that.