WI Sadat not assasinated

So I was wondering what happens to Egypt if Sadat survives the assassination attempt. What are the ramifications of this?

I don't know that anyone on the board is an expert on Egyptian politics, but a few thoughts:

- If the attempt still occurred, you'd probably see Sadat deepen the crackdown on Islamist groups and the opposition that he had already started. If anything he'd probably be more repressive than Mubarak in the '80s (who had allowed a partial liberalization that first decade).

- The Islamist terrorist campaign that hit Egypt in the '90s probably takes place in the '80s itself.

- Egypt remains estranged from the rest of the Arab World for longer. Mubarak spearheaded a rapprochement with them - Sadat would have remained on the outs.

- Sadat would probably have pushed harder for a solution to the Palestinian crisis, since that was one of the stipulations of the Camp David Accords. So the Oslo process may occur earlier, though I don't know whether butterflies would produce a successful outcome. (My guess is no.)

- Sadat would probably die in the '90s. Maybe Egypt would make a democratic transition at that point.
 
I don't know that anyone on the board is an expert on Egyptian politics, but a few thoughts:

- If the attempt still occurred, you'd probably see Sadat deepen the crackdown on Islamist groups and the opposition that he had already started. If anything he'd probably be more repressive than Mubarak in the '80s (who had allowed a partial liberalization that first decade).

- The Islamist terrorist campaign that hit Egypt in the '90s probably takes place in the '80s itself.

- Egypt remains estranged from the rest of the Arab World for longer. Mubarak spearheaded a rapprochement with them - Sadat would have remained on the outs.

- Sadat would probably have pushed harder for a solution to the Palestinian crisis, since that was one of the stipulations of the Camp David Accords. So the Oslo process may occur earlier, though I don't know whether butterflies would produce a successful outcome. (My guess is no.)

- Sadat would probably die in the '90s. Maybe Egypt would make a democratic transition at that point.
So who would take his place?
 
So who would take his place?

No clue. Maybe Mubarak if he lasts as VP long enough.

And if there is an uprising/revolution, my guess is it would be more Islamicized than today -- globalization, social media, the backlash against Al Qaeda, etc., have all served to moderate Islamist movements somewhat. While they're still conservative and regressive, they're generally more comfortable with democracy than in the mid-90s.

OTOH, Sadat would probably have continued pushing more neoliberal policies, so Egypt might have enjoyed higher economic growth rates and greater integration in the world economy, albeit with higher inequality and inflation. In other words, the situation of the past 10 years a couple decades earlier -- that might have been enough to bring about a democratic transition earlier too.
 
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