WI: S. Vietnam doesn't Fall, How Does Vietnam look like today

South Vietnam will not get as lucky as South Korea. In fact, I envision it being a right-wing dictatorship.
The two are not mutually exclusive, at least economically, case in point the early decades of South Korea.
 
I doubt a Communist Vietnam that remains divided would implement the same reforms as OTL.

Well, the North Vietnamese leadership isn't the same as the North Korean leadership, I think...

I think the relation would be more akin to mainland China and Taiwan, where South Vietnam is more prosperous than North Vietnam, and there isn't much desire for South Vietnamese to unify with North Vietnam, but not the other way around (formally speaking, at least...).
 
I doubt a Communist Vietnam that remains divided would implement the same reforms as OTL.

I think there would be a very similar reform package.

If they have the same kind of economic crisis (and why wouldn't they?) why wouldn't they reform? If they don't, their economy collapses.

When Doi Moi was implemented, their exports were only half of their imports. So they were running out of cash to feed their people. Economic growth had stalled. And inflation was 700%. Financial subsidies from Moscow was running down as the Soviets had their own problems. Furthermore, the Vietnamese noted they were falling behind their regional neighbors.

They really don't have an alternative at that point unless they want the end of their regime.

If they don't reform, the likely end was for North Vietnam to collapse and be taken over by the South, or to bunker down like the Kims did in North Korea and starve their own people to death. However, geography would hurt North Vietnam here. North Korea was isolated on a peninsula. It only had to guard the DMZ and the Yalu River. North Vietnam has LONG borders with multiple countries. A Juche type scenario would see a flood of refugees enter Laos and then South Vietnam looking for food. They couldn't keep their nation in Prison like the Kims did.
 
This topic is often discussed by university students in Vietnam today. Most think that the South would be similar to South Korea, although my view is that unless the education system had been reformed this is unlikely.

That seems like wishful thinking to me, but it is revealing about the mindset on the nature of unification.

The big advantage South Vietnam would have is LOTS of personal connections with former American servicemen who would be entering mid-level and senior management in the 1980s and 1990s. IF South Vietnam had a good environment for business, American businesses might prefer South Vietnam as a Far East sourcing location than other countries in the region. FDI could be substantial as it is diverted from Thailand, Indonesia, and China.
 
What if after the Paris Peace Accord, S. Vietnam doesn't get toppled in 1975?

A significant body of the VWP in the North are imprisoned by the security apparatus, and if not the security apparatus the PAVN, probably executed.

South Vietnam falls in 1976 to the PAVN

How does N. and S. Vietnam develop politically and economically?

The RVN remains a basket case for another year.

Do the Vietnams reunify?

Yes, in 1976 while the blood of the VWP DRVN "traitors" is still on the prison walls.

How does the survival of S. Vietnam impact regional and global geopolitics.?

1976 doesn't take the fall of the RVN into the next presidency, but it does take it into the next election cycle. More Malaise? A greater tendency of the remnants of the US New Left to compare Vietnam's national liberation revolution with the historical US national liberation revolution.

yours,
Sam R.
 
Would the North survive or would reunification happen after the Soviet collapse (assuming this still happens)? Would China prop up the North? Or would their OTL rivalries keep them at loggerheads?
 
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