Pretty hard for japan not to annex the islands but if japan doesn’t then it would China or maybe a successful modernised korea
 
If the Satsuma invasion of 1609 was unsuccessful, it would most likely still be a Chinese tributary and would eventually end up being part of China, since there was a lot of Chinese influence in the Ryukyu Kingdom back in the day, but if any European country had the guts to control the islands, either Portugal, Spain or the Netherlands are most likely to take them but that would require a strong position to influence East Asian affairs back in the day.
 

raharris1973

Gone Fishin'
Pretty hard for japan not to annex the islands but if japan doesn’t then it would China or maybe a successful modernised korea

Korea would be interesting, although historically unprecedented. I would think Korea would be worried about offending China too.
 
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