WI: Russo-Turkish War of 1847?

I can't say much about the likelihood of war over that accident, but if Russia is involved in war in 1848/49 there will be consequences of a most concerning nature for the Habsburg Empire. Without the Russian intervention in Hungary it is possible that an earlier Ausgleich might be in the cards or there might not be enough forces to beat the Sardinians (and siege Venice) in Italy.
 
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Orthodox_Ecclesiastical_Mission_in_Jerusalem#1847-1920

Could we see St. Petersburg and Istanbul come to blows over an incident caused by the refusal of the Ottomans to recognize the ROEMJ/hinder its work?

Edit:

Completely forgot, there is no Napoleon III yet. I can't think of any chance Abdulmecid I let it turn into a war. If it happens it is a short one as Nicholas I still would want to stop the Liberal Revolutions in the neighbouring countries.

So... Russia wins is a likely and expected outcome. The peace term is Russia secures Orthodox rights in Jerusalem and some bordee changes. Batum, Artvin, Kars get annexed and the Principalities occupied.

The only victory the Ottomans can achieve is a defensive one. Hold the Danube and try not to lose lands.
 
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Wouldn't this just result in the Crimean War six years early? This was one of the reasons for that war after all.

Revolutions of 1848 come into play esp. in France. Might make it too dangerous to send an expedition...or the expedition being sent might make the Revolution more successful.
 
Revolutions of 1848 come into play esp. in France. Might make it too dangerous to send an expedition...or the expedition being sent might make the Revolution more successful.

Or, at a time of domestic vulnerability and social strife the upper-middle class dident press the issue of the right to assemble and say revolutionary things while eating bad food, thus setting off the National Guard, or the Duke de Orlean would have punted out Guizot to make a more United government in the face of war.

1848 may have been revolutionary times in Germany and Italy, but France more stumbled into the actual revolution. It could be headed off any number of ways with ease, and reform set along a steady path
 
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