The Battle for the crossing of the Berezina River was the last major battle fought by Napoleon's Grande Armée in the Russian Campaign of 1812. After being forced to abandon Moscow as a result of Russia's unwillingness to surrender and dwindling supplies, Napoleon ordered a general retreat from Russia, which further wore down the already exhausted French and allied armies. At one point in their retreat, they were forced to cross the Berezina River, but such a crossing would not be so easy as a Russian army was present nearby and poised to attack. A quite fierce battle ensued, which saw only half of the remaining French and allied army escape the battlefield. A few months later, Napoleon, despite the massive blunder that was the Russian Campaign, decided to make a try at defeating the newly-formed Sixth Coalition the year after; despite initial successes (Bautzen, Lutzen, Dresden), Napoleon was ultimately defeated at Leipzig in october, and was forced to retreat to France, where he announced his abdication.
But what if Napoleon's armies had failed to cross the Berezina River in 1812?
I can see two possible scenarios: Napoleon being captured and imprisoned by the Russians, or killed in the thick of battle. What are the consequences of each scenario for the future of Napoleon's empire in Europe?
Taking the "Napoleon dies" scenario into consideration, i'd imagine that the heads of state of the Confederation of the Rhine would be willing to compromise and negotiate with the Coalition powers, as exemplified IOTL by Frederick Augustus of Saxony's abortive peace talks with Austria in 1813. How would this situation differ from OTL's Congress of Vienna? Without a defeat at Leipzig and subsequent Six Days' campaign, could France (possibly ruled by a regency under Talleyrand) retain most of her territories and sattelite states in Italy and western Germany? What about the Rhine border?
Any further thoughts?
 
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The Battle for the crossing of the Berezina River was the last major battle fought by Napoleon's Grande Armée in the Russian Campaign of 1812. After being forced to abandon Moscow as a result of Russia's unwillingness to surrender and dwindling supplies, Napoleon ordered a general retreat from Russia, which further wore down the already exhausted French and allied armies. At one point in their retreat, they were forced to cross the Berezina River, but such a crossing would not be so easy as a Russian army was present nearby and poised to attack. A quite fierce battle ensued, which saw only half of the remaining French and allied army escape the battlefield.

Let's not be excessively melodramatic about severity of that battle. Nappy, who still had 40,000 organized troops (including those that did not participate in retreat from Moscow) managed to deceive Chichagov (who was on the western bank of Berezina with 24,000 not having enough troops to cover all potential crossing points) about the real place of the crossing, and marched the bulk of his still organized troops across the hastily built bridges in a different place. Chichagov tried to attack the bridges but managed only to push the defending French slightly (and get Oudinot wounded and replaced by Ney).

Contrary to the popular legends, the river was narrow, shallow and did not freeze, yet. 72 hours prior to crossing of the main body 3 French cavalry regiments with the carts and artillery crossed it just by walking across the river: water was just up to the riders' knees (to give an idea about depth of the river).The main problem was that it was too warm for a bogged area on the western bank of the river to freeze and the people and artillery had to struggle through the mud. Here is how that river looks like:
250px-Berezina_River.JPG


And here is a picture of crossing:

300px-Fournier_Sarlov%C3%A8ze_%28Berezina%29.jpg



The crossing would be hardly possible if Wittgenstein with 36,000 was actively attacking him at the rear. But this was not happening because Wittgenstein was unwilling to take excessive risk and waited for Kutuzov who simply did not march from his position (something less than 10 miles away from the events). So Wittgenstein was advancing slowly but managed to cause a considerable havoc by bombarding the retreating French. Quite a few people suffocated in a tightly pressed crowd and some had been thrown off the bridge to the river by the retreating troops of Victor. There was a speculation that Kutuzov's main goal was to discredit Chichagov against whom he had a personal grudge (Chichagov was careless enough to criticize him publicly). If true, the whole operation was Kutuzov's smashing success: Chichagov was made a scapegoat for not capturing Napoleon, publicly ridiculed (being outmaneuvered by Napoleon, what a shame for a general! Kutuzov got away with Austerlitz) and removed from command.

But what if Napoleon's armies had failed to cross the Berezina River in 1812?
I can see two possible scenarios: Napoleon being captured and imprisoned by the Russians, or killed in the thick of battle. What are the consequences of each scenario for the future of Napoleon's empire in Europe?
Taking the "Napoleon dies" scenario into consideration, i'd imagine that the heads of state of the Confederation of the Rhine would be willing to compromise and negotiate with the Coalition powers, as exemplified IOTL by Frederick Augustus of Saxony's abortive peace talks with Austria in 1813. How would this ituation differ from OTL's Congress of Vienna? Without a defeat at Leipzig and subsequent Six Days' campaign, could France (possibly ruled by a regency under Talleyrand) retain most of her territories and sattelite states in Italy and western Germany? What about the Rhine border?
Any further thoughts?

The most bizarre (IMHO) scenario was proposed by Harold Nicolson in "The Congress of Vienna": that, if captured, Nappy would charm Alexander into an alliance. IIRC (but don't quote me on this :)) the plans for this alliance, according to the author, would include everything from conquest of Istanbul and all the way to attack on the British India (I read the book years ago and don't remember if joined landing on Mars also was on the list).
 
Last bump.

Any thoughts as to Talleyrand's regency government in France? How strong a threat would the Bourbon royalists be?
One more thing to note: Jean Victor Marie Moreau (a Directorate era general who was at odds with Napoleon in multiple occasions) was in the USA in the years between 1805 and 1812. Once he heard of Nap's fantastic disaster in Russia, he returned to Europe and began some plots. He was negotiating with Coalition leaders in the midst of the Battle of Dresden (1813) when he was shot and killed. What did he plan to do upon his return to France?
 
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The most France can keep is lands of Kingdom of Sardinia-Piedmont and Rhineland + Austrian Netherlands IMO.
 
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Last bump.

Any thoughts as to Talleyrand's regency government in France? How strong a threat would the Bourbon royalists be?
One more thing to note: Jean Victor Marie Moreau (a Directorate era general who was at odds with Napoleon in multiple occasions) was in the USA in the years between 1805 and 1812. Once he heard of Nap's fantastic disaster in Russia, he returned to Europe and began some plots. He was negotiating with Coalition leaders in the midst of the Battle of Dresden (1813) when he was shot and killed. What did he plan to do upon his return to France?

That's hard to tell but it does not look like he was a political enemy and, as was the case with Bernadotte, in the eyes of French he was compromised by serving the enemy (and he said this himself: ".... I'm dying surrounded by the enemies of France").
 
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