So, I know that the concensus is that the Reds probably win, but if the Republic surrenders to Germany with the precursor to Brest-Litovsk. Could the Republican government. Could the centrists and Mensheviks maintain power, or is White Russia doomed to fail in the Revolution.
WI: Russian Republic surrenders to Imperial Germany
- Thread starter VirginiaStronk
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Deleted member 1487
Fall to some revolution; the military didn't want out and the Allies didn't want them out and would see quitting the war as a violation of their agreement not to make a separate peace. Good luck with the credit crunch that's coming with peace and the outrage of the public when they have to lose territory to get peace and admit defeat.
So basically they're doomed to fall to some military coup/socialist revolution because the military wants to fight and the people are already revolt-y? That seems a bit pessimistic, but honestly what you said sounds about right. I just remembered a while ago that one of the reasons the Bolsheviks became so powerful is because they were willing to get out of the war, but it seems like they have other advantages (public opinion, being more unified, run by more competent people.) I guess the Bolsheviks surrendering made them seem more legitimate as a separate thing because they were very separate from the Empire (no monarch, no duma, etc.), while the Republic was much less so.
Deleted member 1487
The Bolsheviks wanted to end the war and preached their doctrine that the workers revolution was at hand everywhere and would happen in Germany and thus moot any peace deal. They dragged out B-L in the hope that the German revolution would come and save them, which it did not and they had to sign a deal that was highly unfavorable, but based on the assumption that Germany would collapse eventually. The Bolshies did not have universal appeal and had to fight a bloody multi-year civil war and deal with foreign invasions. The Bolsheviks won because they managed to consolidate power and defeat everyone else, not necessarily because they were right about their foreign policy (though that certainly helped them look good among groups that hated the war).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russian_Civil_War#October_Revolution
Credit crunch? Well its not like the Russians are importing all that much in 117. Not having to fight the war saves a lot and probably pacifies a good chunk of the country. Getting out and rebuilding, rejoining the war late and grabbing what you can as the Allies beat back the Germans is a possibility
On the other hand, the Russian republic is one of the worst and most incompetent regimes ever to emerge. The whole thing is an aristocratic regime with no support in the country at large
The Revolutionaries thought that Nicholas was incompetent but he held the thing together for 23 years. The revolutionaries barely last 23 weeks
On the other hand, the Russian republic is one of the worst and most incompetent regimes ever to emerge. The whole thing is an aristocratic regime with no support in the country at large
The Revolutionaries thought that Nicholas was incompetent but he held the thing together for 23 years. The revolutionaries barely last 23 weeks
The Bolsheviks would probably also attack the Provisional government for the peace, saying things like, “We wanted peace, but not like this.” This is why governments hate making tough decisions, because even if their opponents would have done the same thing in their shoes, in opposition they’re free to pretend otherwise.
Is it truly impossible for the PG to seek a separate peace? The Czar's government made the promises to go to war and failed in gaining victory. If his supporters persist just release he files concerning involvement in the assassination, corruption, incompetence, the threat alone should quiet much dissent. Germany essentially only holds Poland and they are not a critical territory or minority to fight for, in truth they are a poison pill to give. A-H is likely very willing and would pressure Germany. Germany needs raw materials and food, exporting food would begin the restoration of normal commerce. Shoot Lenin if he arrives, arrest Trotsky, no revolution. If it is before the USA has committed to joining it can be presumed Germany wins so who cares what the British or French think? Blame the Czar, peace with honor was salable, it is easier to ask your allies why they failed to get Germany off your back break through in the West, open the Straights, etc. It may be implausible for the actors involved but was it that impossible?
longsword14
Banned
It is naturally assumed that there is to be something left of Russia after 1917. That is why the credit is needed.
Credit would be needed to finance imports. In 1917, essentially the only Russian import was war material which wouldn't be needed if there was peace. Far more could be gained by reducing domestic military spending.
The best play for the Russians would be to drop out of the war and save their resources. When the American start arriving in strength to turn things around, they can re enter the war and grab what they want- the advantage of being the superpower of the East
longsword14
Banned
Can write things with certainty now but then their most pressing problem would be weathering defeat in a massive war, and considering the possibility that the Germans win in the West and come for you later. The Americans were no magic bullet.
The potential may lie there, but as OTL WWI showed it is no guarantee. The Germans beat them up pretty convincingly., and a defeated Russia would still need some time to get their internal troubles fixed (shortages, issues due to war, political troubles etc).
Another concern, of course, although I wonder how much the internal rot had gotten to the rank and file by then. Might not necessarily go as planned.