WI Russian naval bases in SE Asia

[La Rouge Beret]

What if as a result of the Crimean War the Russians decide to secure several ports to act as staging points for commerce raiders in the event of hostilities with France or the United Kingdom. The investment is limited so when they are lost, they have served their purpose by allowing the Russians to have launched / commenced an attack on the commercial interest of the country in question.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Well, Vietnam might be seeking a friend to help them avoid being devoured by the French. The first French incursions were just after the Crimean War, but Vietnam was not finally brought under control until the 1880s.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Histor...French_protectorate_.281802_.E2.80.93_1945.29

Russians in Haiphong a century ahead of schedule?

However, what kind of fleet did the Russians have? Could they afford to spare ships for this purpose?

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

I was going to suggest the Philippines but I realized that the US might already stake a claim on it, plus I've already done a TL on it.

 

[MerryPrankster]

I was going to suggest the Philippines but I realized that the US might already stake a claim on it, plus I've already done a TL on it.

The U.S. did not stake a claim on the Philippines until defeating Spain.

The problem is, if the Spanish allow Russian naval bases in the Philippines, that'll P.O. the British and French, who are right next door.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Plus I don't think Russia and Spain were that close. Now if Germany on the other hand, were allowed naval bases in the Philippines or even Austria-Hungary, that would be a different matter. I did find a map on deviantart where Russia has Mindanao. If not the Philippines, then how about Russia could get a naval base in say, Indonesia?

 

[MerryPrankster]

Plus I don't think Russia and Spain were that close. Now if Germany on the other hand, were allowed naval bases in the Philippines or even Austria-Hungary, that would be a different matter. I did find a map on deviantart where Russia has Mindanao. If not the Philippines, then how about Russia could get a naval base in say, Indonesia?

Depending on how thoroughly the East Indies are under the control of the Dutch, maybe the Russians could make some deal with some local sultan.

Not sure of the timing of the Dutch conquest of Indonesia though.

 

[Snake Featherston]

There are a number of problems here, first among them that simply abolishing serfdom will absorb enough of Russia's attention for long enough that securing those bases would be difficult to do in a chronological sense. Second, where's Russia get the navy required to support this and the warm-water ports as bases for said navy? Third, which Russian Tsar spends rubles on the navy?

 

[Simreeve]

Fourth, Britain sees Russia's acquisition of those bases as an attempt at sneaking up on India and applies considerable pressure to stop it.

 

[La Rouge Beret]

Hmmm... yes.

I was thinking of a Russian version of the 'string of pearls,' which is an unofficial Chinese policy at the moment.

Although it is late for the policy, perhaps have the Russian create several trading companies to acquire land for this purpose. Creating options, the right but not the obligation to buy...

Keep up the comments team, I am trying to thrash this out.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

I've already made this TL with regards to a Russian base in SE Asia, though that is the TL that I wanted to rewrite. Anyways, perhaps an extension of the Muscovy Company which would be in charge of managing trade with the Orient would have to be created, and also the condition for a Russian presence in SE Asia is that the British cannot have any colonies in the area, even including India. Why? As long as the British have a presence in South Asia, they would do everything in their power to get rid of any potential competitors, including the Russians.

There is a reason why I chose a minor PoD in 1547: to find a way to butterfly the Livonian War, which broke out because Russia was trying to get a Baltic port when I came across a portion in wikipedia that the German agent who planned to bring 100 builders to Russia was arrested IOTL. That PoD was that Hans Schlitte doesn't get arrested, brings the builders to Russia, and rennovates the neglected port of Ivangorod, which is how my thread 'Ivangorod Prosperous' came to be. For India, originally I was going to have it partitioned between an independent Prussia (I wanted to try out a German India scenario) and a second Ming China.

 

[La Rouge Beret]

Essentially I was trying to find a way to keep Cambodia as an independent state, which is difficult. I was thinking of a POD after 1850 where the King Norodom convinces King Rama IV, that having a buffer state between his country and the French is a good thing.

To have this would require a third power, I was thinking of the Russians but if the French do not control Vietnam until the 1880's then it could be the United States.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Or Germany if another Foreign Minister other than Bismarck was the advisor to Kaiser Wilhelm II. Sabah is also a good candidate for a colony to be given to either Belgium, Italy or even Austria-Hungary.

 

[La Rouge Beret]

I had actually considered Belgium as the interloper... as you had a country that held good relations with Britain and France. Plus they were too small to be considered a threat to the major countries.

There was a Belgian lawyer who was prominent in drafting the Thai constitution in the OTL.

 

[MarshalBraginsky]

Though the Belgians were already burdened with the acquisition of the Congo. Still, a Belgian Empire would be impressive.

 

[La Rouge Beret]

My goal is if possible to prevent colonisation and to maintain an independent kingdom. Though to do this will require some hefty PODs that I am trying to work out now.

So when I am looking at Belgium I am looking at it as a role model for Cambodia.