WI: Russian Moldavia?

[GauchoBadger]

I'd like to start a discussion on a scenario, with a PoD anywhere between 1600 and 1848 (arguably the starting mark of Romanian nationalism), in which the Russian Empire manages to annex the region of Moldavia into its domains after conflicts with the Ottoman Empire. All lands shown in the map above after some period of digestion and adaptation are, ITTL, Russian territory. Overall, such route of expansion wouldn't be too expensive, and would provide the Russian military with some further projection power into neighboring areas such as Poland and the Balkans.
So, what are the effects on mainly Russia, the Balkans, Romania, Ukraine and other nearby areas?
How would the tsar and his bureaucracy placate the interests of the Moldavian boyars? How rebellious would the new province be? Could some form of Finland-like autonomy or Bukhara/Khiva-like protectorate status be in the cards, especially later on?
If one of greater Romania's three historical regions are now in Russian hands, how does this affect the development of Romanian identity? Could it end up like Polish nationalism, opposed to the joint occupation of Romanian land by foreign powers?
What would this entail for Moldavia's economic development, as it's now integrated closer to Russia rather than the Ottoman Empire? Would the Russians seek to develop a port in the Danube delta to exercise a measure of control over the river's trade?

 

[GauchoBadger]

Bump. Anyone interested?

 

[alexmilman]

I'd like to start a discussion on a scenario, with a PoD anywhere between 1600 and 1848 (arguably the starting mark of Romanian nationalism), in which the Russian Empire manages to annex the region of Moldavia into its domains after conflicts with the Ottoman Empire. All lands shown in the map above after some period of digestion and adaptation are, ITTL, Russian territory. Overall, such route of expansion wouldn't be too expensive, and would provide the Russian military with some further projection power into neighboring areas such as Poland and the Balkans.
So, what are the effects on mainly Russia, the Balkans, Romania, Ukraine and other nearby areas?
How would the tsar and his bureaucracy placate the interests of the Moldavian boyars? How rebellious would the new province be? Could some form of Finland-like autonomy or Bukhara/Khiva-like protectorate status be in the cards, especially later on?
If one of greater Romania's three historical regions are now in Russian hands, how does this affect the development of Romanian identity? Could it end up like Polish nationalism, opposed to the joint occupation of Romanian land by foreign powers?
What would this entail for Moldavia's economic development, as it's now integrated closer to Russia rather than the Ottoman Empire? Would the Russians seek to develop a port in the Danube delta to exercise a measure of control over the river's trade?

Russia got a big piece of Moldavia so getting the second half would not make too much of a difference in any of the areas you mentioned.

 

[Deleted member 109224]

Perhaps rather than seizing the Danubian Principalities, Russia cuts a deal with Austria in which Russia gets Moldavia whereas Austria gets Wallachia.


Alternatively, the folks at Vienna in 1814-1815 probably wouldn't have had much issue including Ottoman Territory as something that's horse-traded. Austria and Prussia get their 3rd partition territories back and Russia gets Ternopil, Bukovina, and Wallachia as recompense?

 

[GauchoBadger]

Perhaps rather than seizing the Danubian Principalities, Russia cuts a deal with Austria in which Russia gets Moldavia whereas Austria gets Wallachia.

Alternatively, the folks at Vienna in 1814-1815 probably wouldn't have had much issue including Ottoman Territory as something that's horse-traded. Austria and Prussia get their 3rd partition territories back and Russia gets Ternopil, Bukovina, and Wallachia as recompense?

I don't think Russia would want to trade well-developed Congress Poland for poorer Moldavia and Bukovina, seeming that the regions Russia got from the pre-Napoleonic partition were also quite poor. They could theoretically partition the principalities with Austria, though, assuming the "balance of power" principle is respected.

 

[Koprulu Mustafa Pasha]

No Romania. Russian Moldova changes a lot in the Balkan History. Austria might be even more frightened of Russia trying to avert Russian influence in Wallachia.

Romanians may become a headache for the Russians overtime. Not anything bigger than the Polish.

Nothing changes for the Ottomans apart from Austria being more scared of Russia.

 

[walmart]

Given the shared religion, would this retard Romanian nationalism?

 

[Pelranius]

Given the shared religion, would this retard Romanian nationalism?

Given the linguistic differences alone, I doubt that would help reconcile the Romanians to yet another bunch of foreign rulers.

 

[CalBear]

Bump. Anyone interested?

Don't.

 

[alexmilman]

I don't think Russia would want to trade well-developed Congress Poland for poorer Moldavia and Bukovina, seeming that the regions Russia got from the pre-Napoleonic partition were also quite poor. They could theoretically partition the principalities with Austria, though, assuming the "balance of power" principle is respected.

Economically, Congress Poland was much more attractive than the Principalities but “Russia” did not get it, AI did contrary to the wishes of pretty much everybody: initially, the Brits, Austrians and Prussians wanted that AI just incorporated the Duchy into Russian Empire as a set of the governorships with some regards to the “national specifics” and only after AI made it quite clear that he wants one more crown, everybody started making noises about the Polish National feelings, etc. (at that point it was looking nice without any effort).

Not sure why the Principalities would be a subject of discussion at Vienna: after all, they belonged to the Pttomans, not Napoleon. However, there could be an earlier (more probable) or later (less probable) arrangement regarding the Balkans. I’d say 2nd Ottoman War of CII would be the best chance assuming that the Austrians are performing better in Serbia and Russians did not waste time and resources on siege of Ochakov.

Culturally, in OTL Bessarabia/Moldavia was not fully assimilated culturally but this was just one case of many (Baltic provinces, Poland, Li5huania, Georgia, Armenia, etc.) and it was reasonably quiet so in that sense Romania could be OK (for a while).