WI: Russian-German alliance WWI

RousseauX

Donor
Let's say late 1800s Germany chooses Russia over Austria after the expiration of the league of 3 emperors. Let's say there's still 'some damned fool thing in the balkans" provoking a general European war in the 1910s over what amounts to Austrian-Russian rivalry over influence in the region. What does a War look like if the alliance looks like France-UK-Austria vs Germany+Russia? With Italy and ottomans at least initially sitting on the sidelines.
 
Russia and Germany are likely to prevail. The Ottomans and Italy would be very crazy to join the War, so they don't until the writing is on the wall - if at all.
 
Given such an alliance, I doubt that there would be a major, general war. Unless there are some other radical changes in geopolitics as well.
Such as:
-an ironclad alliance between England & France that includes an earlier expansion of the British army.
-Austria coming to terms with both Italy & the Ottomans (in this case, I don’t think they’d have a choice), perhaps brokered by the British.
 
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Austria has to just accept the German-Russian love fest as a 3rd wheel, "in the friend zone" or whatever and still be allied with Germany and Russia. Basically Austria has to accept that Germany and Russia make the rules in the Balkans, but that is not all that bad for Austria, she is basically stuck at her 1890 boundaries. Austria is basically stuck with Germany with whatever the relationship Germany wants it to be.

However The danger for Germany in choosing Russia as her primary friend is:
a) Austria collapses, breaks apart and they have to take into Germany a bunch of German Austrian Catholics, limiting Protestant Prussian domination of Germany.
b) Germany is stuck doing Russia's bidding and would be the weaker member of the pair, Austria seems much easier to control.

War unlikely as OTL in the Balkans, but war could break out as part of some "great game" dispute: Russia-Germany vs England-France (Austria neutral)
 

Germaniac

Donor

Agreed on Austria's forced alliance, they would face hostile powers on all sides otherwise.

I do disagree on Austria's collapse, Germany's 2nd dog status, and the threat of war in the Balkans being "unlikely"

Austria's demise is often predicted, but I firmly believe that the unique experience of The Great War is was caused the collapse of the old world empires. Austria-Hungary wasn't nearing collapse prior to the war, there were ethnic nationalists obviously but the average person cared way more about where their pension check was going to come from than whether a Serbian or a German king ruled. Without war Austria-Hungary will last as long as it has an semi-effective government, a decent economy, and no violent repression of ethnic minorities in the empire. Eventually they will have to reform, latest this can be pushed I'd say is 1950, but unless the leadership simply ignores the pleas for reform or reacts violently to them the Empire has no reason to fall... unless pushed (WW1).

Russia choosing Germany over France means Russia has chosen the safe but less desirable financially option. France provided Russia easy access to loans needed for Russia's industrial expansion. Allied with Germany, Russia will not have that easy flow of capital as well as Germany's lack of incentive to Russian industrial expansion. By the time whatever Great War is fought Germany will still be a juggernaught and Russia's industry being even less able to maintain a modern army.

I think that war in the Balkans is actually far more likely in this scenario. Austria will continue with its long term goal of annexing Bosnia and in TTL Austria and Russia will plan even closer cooperation in the Bosnian Crisis. If, more when, Russia presses its demands on the straights Austria and Germany will be more inclined to back them. I'd say for this scenario the Bosnian Crisis is absolutely the best option for starting the war, as long as France and Britain (Italy as well) take the bait. The Young Turk revolution had just happened and there was still a lot of enthusiasm for them in the west.

Germany-Russia-Austria Vs. Great Britain-France-Italy-Ottoman Empire
 
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In the Russia-Germany vs. Austria-UK-France, Austria falls apart, but takes a while to fall, tying down Germany and Russia in the mire. For every "Slavs Forever, Hugs and Kisses" part of the Dual Empire, there were others who would not be keen on the affair. Austrians did okay for about two years on their own, IIRC, before really going off the rails. What that does to France and UK is an open question. With a steeper and quicker learning curve, maybe the French and the British are able to stave off the German advance, or maybe not. But I'd like to read someone's TL on it.
 
In the Russia-Germany vs. Austria-UK-France, Austria falls apart, but takes a while to fall, tying down Germany and Russia in the mire. For every "Slavs Forever, Hugs and Kisses" part of the Dual Empire, there were others who would not be keen on the affair. Austrians did okay for about two years on their own, IIRC, before really going off the rails. What that does to France and UK is an open question. With a steeper and quicker learning curve, maybe the French and the British are able to stave off the German advance, or maybe not. But I'd like to read someone's TL on it.

I think in this scenario the French and British have to do the advancing. From Germany's perspective it makes much more sense to be defensive in the West and focus on kicking Austria-Hungary out of the war first, jointly with Russia. Austria may be able to put up a defense, but it's just a matter of time before they are unable to hold on. So the French and British need to make that time count and achieve something, before Germany can concentrate fully on the Western Front with added Russian support.

I do wonder how well Belgian and Luxembourgian neutrality would hold up in this scenario. It would certainly be tempting to take the short cut into the German industrial heartland around Rhine and Ruhr, instead of bashing your head against Alsatian defenses. Especially if your Austrian allies demand quick results if they are to keep bearing the brunt of German and Russian offensives.

I agree though, this could be a fascinating TL.
 
Let's say late 1800s Germany chooses Russia over Austria after the expiration of the league of 3 emperors. Let's say there's still 'some damned fool thing in the balkans" provoking a general European war in the 1910s over what amounts to Austrian-Russian rivalry over influence in the region. What does a War look like if the alliance looks like France-UK-Austria vs Germany+Russia? With Italy and ottomans at least initially sitting on the sidelines.

This hypothesis is ASB. It has no chance to happen with these countries as they were OTL in 1914.

The german-russian alliance would be unbeatable on the continent so France and Austria-Hungary would not go to war but to the negotiation table.

To have such a war happen, you need something like a much more powerful France (retaining Rhineland in 1814) and a stronger Austria-Hungary (supported by France in the 1860’s and keeping the south german States in its sphere of influence).

Only then could there be a such a war in the early 20th century. And I doubt Britain would ally with one of these coalitions.
 
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A side question about the scenario. Was the the Entente offering of capital only because they didn't have most of their own tied down in their economy? Since Germany was still growing rapidly. Or was there some other aspect that was hindering Germany being able to offer investment into Russia that they could change without compromising internal growth.

However even if France isn't allied with Russia, I think there would still be some investment, just not to the level of the officially state encouraged levels. French investors still need somewhere to invest and Russia is a emerging market.
 

RousseauX

Donor
Only then could there be a such a war in the early 20th century. And I doubt Britain would ally with one of these coalitions.
Why? A German-Russian alliance is probably the most threatening anti-British alliance combination there is. Germany threatens continental hegemony and a north sea naval buildup while the Russians threaten India.

The german-russian alliance would be unbeatable on the continent so France and Austria-Hungary would not go to war but to the negotiation table.
Politicians and military leadership miscalculate the balance of power all the time
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
A side question about the scenario. Was the the Entente offering of capital only because they didn't have most of their own tied down in their economy? Since Germany was still growing rapidly. Or was there some other aspect that was hindering Germany being able to offer investment into Russia that they could change without compromising internal growth.

However even if France isn't allied with Russia, I think there would still be some investment, just not to the level of the officially state encouraged levels. French investors still need somewhere to invest and Russia is a emerging market.
There's plenty of emerging markets that offer an alternative. USA, Latin America, Italy, the French colonies, etc.
 
Why? A German-Russian alliance is probably the most threatening anti-British alliance combination there is. Germany threatens continental hegemony and a north sea naval buildup while the Russians threaten India.

Politicians and military leadership miscalculate the balance of power all the time
They're also highly resistant to blockade because you have Germany's sophisticated industries and Russia's huge agricultural and mineral resources shared between two contiguous countries.
 

NoMommsen

Donor
A side question about the scenario. Was the the Entente offering of capital only because they didn't have most of their own tied down in their economy? Since Germany was still growing rapidly. Or was there some other aspect that was hindering Germany being able to offer investment into Russia that they could change without compromising internal growth.

However even if France isn't allied with Russia, I think there would still be some investment, just not to the level of the officially state encouraged levels. French investors still need somewhere to invest and Russia is a emerging market.
Well, Germany actually was IOTL the biggest single trade partner of Russia IOTL.

But
IOTL there were recurring quarrels about tariffs for agricultural goods due to the prussian junkers and similar in germany.

Also
german investments went mostly into domestic assets mostly due to the industrialists being the only mayor potential (rich enough) investors .
There wasn't yet a financial market or financial 'players' comparable to the 'City' of London or the french banquers. 'Trade' with money for money was stuill a rather ... new and 'suspicious' looked at buisness.
 
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