Agreed on Austria's forced alliance, they would face hostile powers on all sides otherwise.
I do disagree on Austria's collapse, Germany's 2nd dog status, and the threat of war in the Balkans being "unlikely"
Austria's demise is often predicted, but I firmly believe that the unique experience of The Great War is was caused the collapse of the old world empires. Austria-Hungary wasn't nearing collapse prior to the war, there were ethnic nationalists obviously but the average person cared way more about where their pension check was going to come from than whether a Serbian or a German king ruled. Without war Austria-Hungary will last as long as it has an semi-effective government, a decent economy, and no violent repression of ethnic minorities in the empire. Eventually they will have to reform, latest this can be pushed I'd say is 1950, but unless the leadership simply ignores the pleas for reform or reacts violently to them the Empire has no reason to fall... unless pushed (WW1).
Russia choosing Germany over France means Russia has chosen the safe but less desirable financially option. France provided Russia easy access to loans needed for Russia's industrial expansion. Allied with Germany, Russia will not have that easy flow of capital as well as Germany's lack of incentive to Russian industrial expansion. By the time whatever Great War is fought Germany will still be a juggernaught and Russia's industry being even less able to maintain a modern army.
I think that war in the Balkans is actually far more likely in this scenario. Austria will continue with its long term goal of annexing Bosnia and in TTL Austria and Russia will plan even closer cooperation in the Bosnian Crisis. If, more when, Russia presses its demands on the straights Austria and Germany will be more inclined to back them. I'd say for this scenario the Bosnian Crisis is absolutely the best option for starting the war, as long as France and Britain (Italy as well) take the bait. The Young Turk revolution had just happened and there was still a lot of enthusiasm for them in the west.
Germany-Russia-Austria Vs. Great Britain-France-Italy-Ottoman Empire