WI: Russian Federation collapses in the 1990s

What if Russia broke up into numerous states shortly after the end of the USSR?

OTL Russia immediately after the collapse of the USSR had two big hotbeds of separatism - Chechnya and Tatarstan. The former is very well known; the latter declared itself a sovereign state in 1992, issued its own quasi-currency (Tatarstan token coins) and actively obstructed negotiations on Russian constitutional system in the early 1990s, but didn't carry it through and decided to remain in the Federation. While there were some separatist sentiments in other parts of the country, such as the Russian Far East, they were negligible and were based on opposition to Yeltsin's policies and not on ethnic nationalist grounds.

In this scenario, however, Russia and its federal government have become so weak (even worse economy than IOTL, more political chaos, the army rotting away due to mismanagement and lack of money) that the various parts of the country turn against Moscow and secede. The republics of the Caucasus, Tatarstan, the Russian Far East, Siberia, Yakutia, Buryatia, Tuva and the Urals break away from the failing Federation. In the most extreme scenario, European Russia starts to balkanize as well - the Kaliningrad Oblast, Russian-majority republics of Karelia, Mordovia, etc. separate. In any case, Russia is reduced to a rump state in the European part of the country.

What would the situation be years later? Would the ex-Russian states be better off in the 2000s compared to OTL Russia or worse? Would Russia remain divided, or reunification would occur at some point in the future?

Would there be a US military invasion under the pretext of protecting Russian nuclear arsenal from terrorists - the nightmare of many OTL Russian nationalists?
 
I don't see this as feasible. You may see some de facto independence for a while, but the world community would recognize the independence of any of these statelets. When the Soviet Union broke up, there was actually formal language in the constitution of the Soviet Union that allowed them to become independent, and the various republics were in discussion with what kind of formal organization would replace the old union (which became the Commonwealth of Independent States). Perfectly legal and orderly by international law. Declarations of independence by sections within Russia don't have that kind of standing.

Nobody was going to support these separatist groups even if in certain cases certain countries were sympathetic to some of them. At worst, we'll see a situation like warlord era China between 1916-1937 where de facto independent groups operated within the country, but were not recognized as independent nations. This might mean a 10-20 year period where Moscow rebuilds its forces and then systematically coopts/crushes the various "warlords".

There would not be a US military invasion of Russia. However, there may be contacts between the US and Moscow on how to best secure the nuclear arsenal given the unrest. That may mean presence of US forces (or some kind of UN force) invited in by Russia to protect the weapons, but more likely it would be targeted military aide so that Russian armed forces under the control of Moscow could protect the nuclear arsenal.
 
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