What if Russia broke up into numerous states shortly after the end of the USSR?
OTL Russia immediately after the collapse of the USSR had two big hotbeds of separatism - Chechnya and Tatarstan. The former is very well known; the latter declared itself a sovereign state in 1992, issued its own quasi-currency (Tatarstan token coins) and actively obstructed negotiations on Russian constitutional system in the early 1990s, but didn't carry it through and decided to remain in the Federation. While there were some separatist sentiments in other parts of the country, such as the Russian Far East, they were negligible and were based on opposition to Yeltsin's policies and not on ethnic nationalist grounds.
In this scenario, however, Russia and its federal government have become so weak (even worse economy than IOTL, more political chaos, the army rotting away due to mismanagement and lack of money) that the various parts of the country turn against Moscow and secede. The republics of the Caucasus, Tatarstan, the Russian Far East, Siberia, Yakutia, Buryatia, Tuva and the Urals break away from the failing Federation. In the most extreme scenario, European Russia starts to balkanize as well - the Kaliningrad Oblast, Russian-majority republics of Karelia, Mordovia, etc. separate. In any case, Russia is reduced to a rump state in the European part of the country.
What would the situation be years later? Would the ex-Russian states be better off in the 2000s compared to OTL Russia or worse? Would Russia remain divided, or reunification would occur at some point in the future?
Would there be a US military invasion under the pretext of protecting Russian nuclear arsenal from terrorists - the nightmare of many OTL Russian nationalists?
OTL Russia immediately after the collapse of the USSR had two big hotbeds of separatism - Chechnya and Tatarstan. The former is very well known; the latter declared itself a sovereign state in 1992, issued its own quasi-currency (Tatarstan token coins) and actively obstructed negotiations on Russian constitutional system in the early 1990s, but didn't carry it through and decided to remain in the Federation. While there were some separatist sentiments in other parts of the country, such as the Russian Far East, they were negligible and were based on opposition to Yeltsin's policies and not on ethnic nationalist grounds.
In this scenario, however, Russia and its federal government have become so weak (even worse economy than IOTL, more political chaos, the army rotting away due to mismanagement and lack of money) that the various parts of the country turn against Moscow and secede. The republics of the Caucasus, Tatarstan, the Russian Far East, Siberia, Yakutia, Buryatia, Tuva and the Urals break away from the failing Federation. In the most extreme scenario, European Russia starts to balkanize as well - the Kaliningrad Oblast, Russian-majority republics of Karelia, Mordovia, etc. separate. In any case, Russia is reduced to a rump state in the European part of the country.
What would the situation be years later? Would the ex-Russian states be better off in the 2000s compared to OTL Russia or worse? Would Russia remain divided, or reunification would occur at some point in the future?
Would there be a US military invasion under the pretext of protecting Russian nuclear arsenal from terrorists - the nightmare of many OTL Russian nationalists?