WI - Russian Empire gains access to the Indian Ocean

[Masked Grizzly]

What if the Russian Empire managed to gain access to the Indian Ocean by conquering most of Afghanistan and either at minimum Iranian Balochistan or at maximum all of Balochistan (the latter in OTL currently divided between Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan)?

What effect would Russian control of the ports at Chabahar in the minimum ATL scenario or Chabahar plus Gwadar and Jiwani in the maximum ATL scenario have had on Russia prior to WW1 and later on under the Soviet Union during the Cold War?

Additionally what impact would the lost of Iranian Balochistan have had on Iran given it was a largely Sunni Muslim region ruled by a Shia state?

 

[Sheliak Lawyer]

Perhaps a Russian victory in the great game-maybe they pull off some intrigue and catch the British flat footed allowing expansion.

WW1 as we know it would not occur(in assuming this is an early to mid 19th century POD).

The loss of the Sunni territory would be bad for Iran but would mean no Sunni insurgency.

Even with access to the Indian Ocean it will take the Russians some time to build up port and docking facilities in Gwadar and the British will not quietly accept defeat...

 

[Indicus]

On Gwadar - it was Omani-controlled until the 1960s. I doubt that Russia would want to take it over, in any circumstance.

Also, how does this happen? By the time Russia began to move into Khiva, in the 1870s, Britain already conquered pretty much all of OTL India and Pakistan, including Baluchistan, by the 1840s. Unless you delay Britain's expansion, and hasten Russia's expansion, there's no way Russia can possibly have a port into the Indian Ocean.

But sure, I'll give it a shot. So, let's say that Britain loses the First Anglo-Sikh War - not a hard thing by any measure. It should delay British expansion a little bit, so that it finishes conquering India by the 1850s. Let's also say that Russia's expedition into Khiva in the 1830s is better planned, run by Cossacks, and is successful, and Khiva is conquered many decades before OTL. This spurs an earlier Russian colonization of Central Asia, and ultimately it is able to just eke out a conquest of Baluchistan in the late 1840s, winning a port into the Indian Ocean.

 

[Avrorrange]

Britain has a heart attack.

 

[cmakk1012]

WARM WATER PORT

WARM WATER PORT

Russia is going to have a field day and Britain is going to go nuts. I'd honestly expect Britain to instigate a war in the region to kick Russia out as soon as possible.

 

[Masked Grizzly]

By the time Russia began to move into Khiva, in the 1870s, Britain already conquered pretty much all of OTL India and Pakistan, including Baluchistan

Regarding Gwadar under Omani control, fair enough though that is the maximum ATL scenario where Russia conquers Afghanistan and all of Balochistan including ports at Jiwani and Chabahar.

On the other hand it appears that Britain did not conquer Iranian Balochistan in OTL, so the minimum ATL scenario would involve Russia conquering Afghanistan as well as Iranian Balochistan and gaining a port at Chabahar.

 

[sloreck]

Lets say sometime in the late 19th century Russia gets a port on the Indian Ocean somewhere in the OTL Pakistan-Iran border area. Great, or say they even get Karachi. And this connects to the rest of Russia how?? They are going to build a railroad from somewhere in European Russia across Afghanistan, part of Pakistan to their port? This is while they are struggling to build the much more important trans-Siberian. If the Warm water port is not connected to European Russia where most of the population and industry is it is useless. If the Russians have to go overland by horse/ox to get from Karachi to the nearest railhead is a huge distance through terrible terrain and hostile locals. Building a railroad from Russia across Afghanistan to Karachi, still not there.

 

[Avrorrange]

Lets say sometime in the late 19th century Russia gets a port on the Indian Ocean somewhere in the OTL Pakistan-Iran border area. Great, or say they even get Karachi. And this connects to the rest of Russia how?? They are going to build a railroad from somewhere in European Russia across Afghanistan, part of Pakistan to their port? This is while they are struggling to build the much more important trans-Siberian. If the Warm water port is not connected to European Russia where most of the population and industry is it is useless. If the Russians have to go overland by horse/ox to get from Karachi to the nearest railhead is a huge distance through terrible terrain and hostile locals. Building a railroad from Russia across Afghanistan to Karachi, still not there.

Russia taking Pakistan or at least part of it will probably cause the UK to enter war.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

Lets say sometime in the late 19th century Russia gets a port on the Indian Ocean somewhere in the OTL Pakistan-Iran border area. Great, or say they even get Karachi. And this connects to the rest of Russia how?? They are going to build a railroad from somewhere in European Russia across Afghanistan, part of Pakistan to their port? This is while they are struggling to build the much more important trans-Siberian. If the Warm water port is not connected to European Russia where most of the population and industry is it is useless. If the Russians have to go overland by horse/ox to get from Karachi to the nearest railhead is a huge distance through terrible terrain and hostile locals. Building a railroad from Russia across Afghanistan to Karachi, still not there.

If they get a warm water port then it becomes way more important than the Trans-Siberian railroad. Nothing is as important to them as a warm water port.

Russia taking Pakistan or at least will probably cause the UK to enter war.

If you believe Conolly, Rawlinson, Burnes and others, Britain was ill-prepared for war in Central Asia, at least before something like the 1880s. If their conquest of India is hindered as suggested before, they may even be in a worse position. Of course, Conolly et al were probably trying to exert political support for forward policies by fearmongering, but they were right in many cases. Maps and intelligence were indeed extremely poor, and if the Russians control Central Asia earlier on, then they have even less options for Great Game-style reconnaissance as OTL.

That said, I doubt Russia could hold Afghanistan. I doubt anyone could hold Afghanistan, including the Afghans themselves.

 

[RogueTraderEnthusiast]

That said, I doubt Russia could hold Afghanistan. I doubt anyone could hold Afghanistan, including the Afghans themselves.

 

[Indicus]

That said, I doubt Russia could hold Afghanistan. I doubt anyone could hold Afghanistan, including the Afghans themselves.

Depends what you mean by holding Afghanistan. Creating an authority in Afghanistan's major cities is possible, as is letting the tribes do as they wish, as long as they don't attack the Russian authority in the region. The Mughals did that while governing Afghanistan, and it proved rather successful, governing it for hundreds of years.

 

[Avrorrange]

If they get a warm water port then it becomes way more important than the Trans-Siberian railroad. Nothing is as important to them as a warm water port.


If you believe Conolly, Rawlinson, Burnes and others, Britain was ill-prepared for war in Central Asia, at least before something like the 1880s. If their conquest of India is hindered as suggested before, they may even be in a worse position. Of course, Conolly et al were probably trying to exert political support for forward policies by fearmongering, but they were right in many cases. Maps and intelligence were indeed extremely poor, and if the Russians control Central Asia earlier on, then they have even less options for Great Game-style reconnaissance as OTL.

That said, I doubt Russia could hold Afghanistan. I doubt anyone could hold Afghanistan, including the Afghans themselves.

Even if the British are ill-prepared for war in Central Asia,I have no doubt that they would have still went ahead to try and expel the Russians from India and it's proximity.

Plenty of entities have successfully conquered and ruled Afghanistan.The so-called 'Graveyard of Empires' thing is only a modern day myth.Prior to the British,Afghanistan was a highway of empires.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

Okay, fair point. But I still think that Russia in the 19th century can't really hold onto Afghanistan. Unlike the Mughals, it's way to far from their actual powerbase.

They might be able to buy off the tribes as mentioned, but that’s not a tight hold on the region at all. Not nearly tight enough, considering how important it is as the access to the Baluchistan ports. Also consider how much trouble the British will be stirring in there.

 

[Derek Pullem]

Give Russia that warm water port - how exactly are they going to be able to use it?

Unless they can build and support a modern fleet there and build thousands of miles of railway (a similar task to trans-Siberian) what will they do with it? Just having a warm port is no good if your fleet is bottled up in icebound metropolitan ports.

 

[Avrorrange]

Okay, fair point. But I still think that Russia in the 19th century can't really hold onto Afghanistan. Unlike the Mughals, it's way to far from their actual powerbase.

They might be able to buy off the tribes as mentioned, but that’s not a tight hold on the region at all. Not nearly tight enough, considering how important it is as the access to the Baluchistan ports. Also consider how much trouble the British will be stirring in there.

If it's important enough,it can be done.The Russians will just depopulate the entire region and fill it with Russian migrants.One of the assumptions about a guerilla war is that the enemy don't want to attack the civilian population.If they just take out the civilian population,you are screwed.19th century Russians are most certainly capable of genocides.

 

[Indicus]

If it's important enough,it can be done.The Russians will just depopulate the entire region and fill it with Russian migrants.One of the assumptions about a guerilla war is that the enemy don't want to attack the civilian population.If they just take out the civilian population,you are screwed.19th century Russians are most certainly capable of genocides.

Russia can't just kill off its own protectorates. One thing that's often forgotten is that Russia tended to turn their conquests into protectorates, something akin to Britain's princely states. And if Russia tries to kill off the population of the region, well, their protectorates would instantly ask for British support.

 

[Jape]

Does it have to be connected to Russia proper?

Have even stronger Russo-Abyssinian relations, full alliance etc. With the green light from Abyssinia Russia claims a port in the Horn of Africa, possibly Djibouti which didn't fall to France until 1894. I believe one Russian navy officer actually tried something like this but was beaten to the location by the French by mere hours.

There's also Russia puppeting Persia and getting a Hong Kong-style concession.

 

[Ultima Ratio]

Does it have to be connected to Russia proper?

Have even stronger Russo-Abyssinian relations, full alliance etc. With the green light from Abyssinia Russia claims a port in the Horn of Africa, possibly Djibouti which didn't fall to France until 1894. I believe one Russian navy officer actually tried something like this but was beaten to the location by the French by mere hours.

There's also Russia puppeting Persia and getting a Hong Kong-style concession.

Problem is: such a port is indefensible. The British or the French can just seize it any day of the week.

 

[Indicus]

Problem is: such a port is indefensible. The British or the French can just seize it any day of the week.

Unless Russia takes part in the Scramble for Africa and takes over land around the Indian Ocean, including a port - which actually isn't too implausible.

But then again, virtually no one would go to such a port.

 

[MonAngel]

Give Russia that warm water port - how exactly are they going to be able to use it?

Unless they can build and support a modern fleet there and build thousands of miles of railway (a similar task to trans-Siberian) what will they do with it? Just having a warm port is no good if your fleet is bottled up in icebound metropolitan ports.

About railway. Trans-Caspian Railway was built between 1879-1886 (if my memory don't lie). The railway was very important as Russia needed Central Asian cotton (aside from military purpose). Indeed this route become commercially success that may entrepreneurs wanted to expand the route to Tashkent by their money. So if Russian Empire is expanded to Central Asia earlier, Trans-Caspian railway will be built much sooner. Because ACW messed cotton marked and Russia would want cheaper Central Asian cotton. Once you TCRailway built till Ashgabad, it is not far to reach Indian Ocean. As i said it will be commercially important line to import spice and other commodities from East Asia.