WI: Russian Army sides with the Supreme Soviet during the 1993 Constitutional Crisis.


In 1993, there was a constitutional crisis in Russia. President Boris Yeltsin had been in conflict with the Supreme Soviet of Russia over his reforms. Those who opposed Yeltsin claimed that he was attempting to increase executive powers. After some time of debate, conflict and tension, Boris Yeltsin dissolved the Supreme Soviet on September 21st. Using the results of the referendum as justification, he declared that the Supreme Soviet was not following the will of the people, and that by dissolving the Soviet he was clearing the way for reforms that would help the country. The next day, the Supreme Soviet impeached Yeltsin (the current constitution did not allow the President to dissolve the Soviet) and swore vice president Alexander Rutskoy to the office of President.

Over the following days, protests (for both Yeltsin and the Soviet) took place. Yeltsin cut off water, electricity and phone lines to the White House (the Legislative Building). Armed protestors joined the Soviet in the White House. Pro-Soviet protestors, under orders from Rutskoy, then stormed the Mayor (of Moscow)’s office and a local television station. 63 people were killed in these events.

It was at this point when Military, who had remained neutral throughout the crisis so far, decided to join forces with Yeltsin. On October 4th, the military bombarded the white house with tanks. Then, at noon, ground forces stormed the White House and occupied it floor by floor. By the afternoon, all street protests had been put down. According to the Russian Government, 187 people were killed. However, according to unofficial sources, as many as 2,000 may have died.

Yeltsin solidified his power and established the State Duma to replace the Supreme Soviet. Those who had gone against him, including Rutskoy, were later pardoned by the Duma in 1994.

Now Historians note the fact that the military only grudgingly sided with Yeltsin, and at the last minute. Many Generals within the military sided with the Soviet personally, but decided to side with Yeltsin due to other reasons. Such reasons include the Pro-Soviet forces storming the Mayor’s Office and Moscow TV Station, the fact that a majority of the people supported Yeltsin, and (most importantly) the fact that if they sided with Yeltsin and won, then they would be greatly rewarded for their loyalty (where as they probably would not have with the Soviet, who would have seen their loyalty as their duty).

However, what if the Generals within the military had decided to side to with Soviet? What if they had done what they believed was right, regardless of the possible outcomes? What if instead of shelling the White House, they had instead shelled the Kremlin? What if the Supreme Soviet defeated Boris Yeltsin?
 
I asked a similar question on another board once. The only reply I got was a sarcastic/naive one of:

"The Soviet Union would reform and be here today, The Soviet Union would still be a superpower, man would be on Mars and beyond due to the space race between USA and USSR, technology would be even higher due to competition, USA would not be in Iraq or Afghanistan, the Bering Strait bridge and tunnel would be done by now."
 
Hm. This is one of the areas of Russian history I'm fuzziest on. What would Rutskoy have done if he was placed in power? Could he have repaired the Russian economic crisis at the time? I don't know enough about him to say how things would develop.
 
I just asked a Russian friend for his opinion, he says that the aftermath of the GKChP putsch and subsequent officer purge in 1991 and the Belavezha Accords of the same year pretty much ensured that Yeltsin would emerge victorious.

As for the consequences of this somehow pushing through, I haven't a clue what would happen.
 
Well for 1. If the Military backs the Soviets and succeed in putting down the rebellion then i think you would at first have a very hard line reactionary government in place. however it would be short lived as glasnost and perostrika were well underway. Having lost all of eastern Europe and everyone and there brothers dog bailing, they would have to adapt and change very rapidly. Everyone was just sick of the whole thing by that point.

Soviet Union may survive, but it will be a NEW soviet union. one that is more market socialist friendly. Basically Russia today. 1 party, (yeah i know there is more then 1 party in russia now.. but United Russia is basically the only real gig in town as long as Putin is around. but more open to market forces and not so Military dependent.

On a side bar. what would Russia look like with out Putin. be willing to wager they may have slipped back into the the old ways with a failure of market reforms in CIS
 
AFAIK USSR was dead by that time. And I don't even think by that time anyone could fully restore communism in Russia. But a far less reform (Yeltsin reform, aka Grand Theft) oriented hard line government would emerge. Ammount of corruption present in system is so great by that time that they won't do significantly better than Yeltsin no matter what they do.

Soviet army hasn't yet fully rotted to death by start of '93. so they have more punch than OTL.

So, is Bill Clinton willing to go to WWIII to safeguard independence of former Soviet member states?
 
So, is Bill Clinton willing to go to WWIII to safeguard independence of former Soviet member states?

not over the former SSR's
but eastern Europe is lost to Russia.. since US and Nato will defend them...
and if tanks rolled towards Poland all hell breaks loose..

you may see some saber rattling or something over the baltics .. but in the end like in 1940.. nobody would do anything

The line is drawn at poland (again) and down to the Adriatic
 
The USSR is dead regardless. At "best", the RSFSR survives as an independent state, but even that is unlikely. I'm not an expert on this topic, but having Rutskoi encourage the protestors to raid the media outlet and the mayor's office probably hurt him with the political nd military class more than it helped.
 
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