WI: Russian annexation of Manchuria in 1860s or 1870s

Could Russia annex all of Manchuria in the 1860s or 1870s

Would they be able to successfully russifiy the area or would there be too many Han Chinese
 

CaliGuy

Banned
Could Russia annex all of Manchuria in the 1860s or 1870s

It could try, but it might have to fight Britain and possibly--if this war breaks out in the 1860s--France as well.

Would they be able to successfully russifiy the area or would there be too many Han Chinese

Honestly, I am unsure about this considering that I don't know what Manchuria's demographics were during this time. However, Russia would have probably had some success in Russifying Manchuria's ethnic Chinese population.
 
Manchuria was comparatively sparsely populated during this period (before the Qing opened the door to Han settlement as a response to Russian encroachments) so one suspects that Russia taking a larger chunk of inland Manchuria would probably not have triggered significant UK, French opposition. Port Arthur/Lushunkou would have been seen as an attempt to disrupt the post-Crimean War 'hemming in' of Russia, however.

Manchuria is somewhat ideal for industrialization, with large coal and steel (and later oil at Daqing) deposits, and that could have driven significant Han Chinese immigration to the region. The likelihood of Russia being able to industrialize the region before the 1920s (assuming ITL would even see Soviet-style industrialization) is low, however.

As for Russifying the Chinese in such an industrial scenario, I think sheer distance and weight of numbers would make this a very difficult task. The modern provinces of Liaoning, Jilin and Heilongjiang have as many people as Russia proper combined. More likely the Russian-Han would adopt a culture that is part-Russian, part-Chinese, and cause all sorts of paranoid fantasies in Moscow regarding Asiaticization/independence.
 
You think the other Powers would stand by and let that happen?

Also, there were at least 5 million in 1850, meaning it already matched all of Greater Siberia (east of the Ural) from the 1896 Russian Census. It's just too big a population to control, when you take into consideration that by 1900, there were at least 14 million.
 
Also, there were at least 5 million in 1850, meaning it already matched all of Greater Siberia (east of the Ural) from the 1896 Russian Census. It's just too big a population to control, when you take into consideration that by 1900, there were at least 14 million.

Im wondering whether Manchuria could be like British India e.g. a colonial power able to control native populations far larger than their own.
 
Im wondering whether Manchuria could be like British India e.g. a colonial power able to control native populations far larger than their own.
India was only possible because the continent itself was atomized, with the opposite being the case here. Please, think of what you're writing.
 
I think Britain might intervene, as long as relations with the Qing aren't that strained (I don't think they are overthrown just yet, I don't remember my dates on this one). However, the loss of Manchuria would quickly make the dynasty discredited in the eyes of all the Chinese middle class and elites.
 
Politically it would be challenging without an earlier PoD, though not impossible. In practical terms Russia certainly has the possibility of Russifying the area, but it would require quite a few things to go right, including:
1. Long term Russian stability. Russia had massive demographic an economic potential in the 19th/20th centuries but OTL wasted most of it through various wars/civil wars. A Russia that can go through to the mid 20th century or longer without a serious war would have an excellent chance of success, but the more conflict the harder it gets.
2. Getting in early. The longer it waits, the more the Han population will grow. It's impossible to give a hard date to when this growth would get out of hand, but the earlier Russia can restrict Han migration the better off it will be.
3. Not annexing any areas that will be too populated to begin with. "Manchuria" is a highly diverse area, and in the 19th Century it varied in population dramatically. The areas now in Liaonning Province in particular already had loads of people. Russia is going to want Port Arthur, but the more of the Yellow Sea coast it annexes the worse off it will be. An AH that explores a Russified Manchuria would do well to limit how much of "Southern Manchuria" is included in it.
 
Considering Manchuria is the birthplace of the Qing Dynasty,the Qing Dynasty will probably use every ounce of it's strength and fight a total war against Russia.The loss of Manchuria would be a death blow to the Qing Dynasty both on a strategic level(considering the region's just next to Beijing) and in terms of legitimacy.Also,note that on most occasions in fights with the westerners,the Qing Dynasty was essentially fighting with a hand behind it's back,and that they could not fight anything resembling a total war.Russia's ability to project power to the Far East also isn't that impressive until the construction of the Trans-Siberian railway.
 
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Considering Manchuria is the birthplace of the Qing Dynasty,the Qing Dynasty will probably use every ounce of it's strength and fight a total war against Russia.The loss of Manchuria would be a death blow to the Qing Dynasty both on a strategic level(considering the region's just next to Beijing) and in terms of legitimacy.Also,note that on most occasions in fights with the westerners,the Qing Dynasty was essentially fighting with a hand behind it's back,and that they could not fight anything resembling a total war.Russia's ability to project power to the Far East also isn't that impressive until the construction of the Trans-Siberian railway.

True, but remember that China in this timeframe is still recovering from the Taiping rebellion.
 
The earlier the better is I think undisputed but what about a no Crimean War tl where instead of looking South Russia looks East, building the trans-Siberian railway decades earlier and pushing many more settlers East possibly as part of an altered ending of Serfdom. If by 1870 the Russian Far East has a couple of million Russians already in it and a railhead not too far away conquest is certainly possible and if they avoid any of the more heavily settled bits then a demographically Russian Manchuria is absolutely possible IMHO.
 
It's important to mention that Port Arthur would Russia's only open sea ice-free port, an earlier Trans Siberian Railway is more than plausible.
 
True, but remember that China in this timeframe is still recovering from the Taiping rebellion.
Even more reason to fight.The Qing Empire lost a lot of legitimacy and strength already.If they chose not to fight,Beijing will border the Russians.
Actually. by this time that was just an excuse with no real effect on actually legitimacy. That was why Joseon was able to slowly widen its administration into Gando/Jiandao without the Qing raising too big a fuss.
That's because Joseon is seen as a loyal,harmless vassal?It's one thing to cede parts of Manchuria,but ceding the whole
thing is impossible.The last time a Chinese regime that centres in Beijing and lost control of Manchuria ended up easily conquered by the party who conquered Manchuria.
 
There's no great wall to stop barbarian invasions anymore. China has to hold manchuria, or the russians will be on beijing's doorstep. I suspect, they'll try to hold it, at all costs.
And keep in mind, while the qing would be recovering from the taiping, they would also be fresh off of a victorious war. They would have large numbers of battle-hardened units, good generals, and even some european armed and trained forces such as the ever victorious army. In short, it's like attacking america right after the american civil war ends. A really fucking bad idea.

China always wins in total wars. The only time they lost was against the mongols, but as everyone knows..
They're the exception.
 
That's because Joseon is seen as a loyal,harmless vassal?It's one thing to cede parts of Manchuria,but ceding the whole
thing is impossible.The last time a Chinese regime that centres in Beijing and lost control of Manchuria ended up easily conquered by the party who conquered Manchuria.

Not discounting the geopolitical aspect. Just pointing out that "mere" legitimacy isn't going to be a big factor.



China always wins in total wars. The only time they lost was against the mongols, but as everyone knows..
They're the exception.

Goguryeo–Sui War

Bigger than anything from the pre-Napoleonic period..... in the 7th Century.
 
There's no great wall to stop barbarian invasions anymore. China has to hold manchuria, or the russians will be on beijing's doorstep. I suspect, they'll try to hold it, at all costs.
And keep in mind, while the qing would be recovering from the taiping, they would also be fresh off of a victorious war. They would have large numbers of battle-hardened units, good generals, and even some european armed and trained forces such as the ever victorious army. In short, it's like attacking america right after the american civil war ends. A really fucking bad idea.

China always wins in total wars. The only time they lost was against the mongols, but as everyone knows..
They're the exception.
I think you're overly optimistic as to how effective the Qing military was at the time. First of all, there were plenty of other rebellions that desperately needed the attention of the Qing military once they'd defeated the Taiping. They were still occupied fighting the Nian, the Miao, the Panthays, and the Dungans the last of whom would not be defeated until the late 1870's. The Qing essentially lost control of their Central Asian possessions for the better part of two decades. Moreover, the process of re-equipping and re-training their forces to use Western style equipment and tactics was slow and spotty. Depending on when exactly we're talking about in the 1860-1879 period that could be a sizable portion of their military, or it could be virtually none of it. Another point to consider is the regionalism that tookhold of the Chinese military, and the state more generally, during and after the Taiping Rebellion. There's no guarrantee that one regional force will come to the aid of another, so the Russians may well be facing only a portion of the total Chinese forces. Compound that with the fact that the most of China's modern military arsenals were constructed in the late 1860's and they won't have the same access to odern equipment as they did later on. Fundamentally, my understanding is that the Qing military was still much more similar to the force that was torn apart by the Anglo-French in 1860 than the one that fought the French to a standstill in 1885.

On top of that, the Russians are well into their post-Crimean army reforms at this point - IIRC they had largely completed that by 1871. So I think we can expect the Russians to perform broadly similarly to how they did in 1877-78 IOTL. and ITTL they'll be up against a less capable force than the Ottomans were. The main considerations for Russia will be maintaining adequate logistics to their forces operating in Manchuria and weighing the diplomatic costs vis-a-vis the other Western powers against the potential territorial gains.

Basically, attacking China in this period is nothing like attacking the US immediately post-civil war.
 
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