Could Russia annex all of Manchuria in the 1860s or 1870s
Would they be able to successfully russifiy the area or would there be too many Han Chinese
Also, there were at least 5 million in 1850, meaning it already matched all of Greater Siberia (east of the Ural) from the 1896 Russian Census. It's just too big a population to control, when you take into consideration that by 1900, there were at least 14 million.
India was only possible because the continent itself was atomized, with the opposite being the case here. Please, think of what you're writing.Im wondering whether Manchuria could be like British India e.g. a colonial power able to control native populations far larger than their own.
Atomized meaning severely divided?India was only possible because the continent itself was atomized, with the opposite being the case here. Please, think of what you're writing.
Atomized meaning severely divided?
Considering Manchuria is the birthplace of the Qing Dynasty,the Qing Dynasty will probably use every ounce of it's strength and fight a total war against Russia.The loss of Manchuria would be a death blow to the Qing Dynasty both on a strategic level(considering the region's just next to Beijing) and in terms of legitimacy.Also,note that on most occasions in fights with the westerners,the Qing Dynasty was essentially fighting with a hand behind it's back,and that they could not fight anything resembling a total war.Russia's ability to project power to the Far East also isn't that impressive until the construction of the Trans-Siberian railway.
and in terms of legitimacy.
Even more reason to fight.The Qing Empire lost a lot of legitimacy and strength already.If they chose not to fight,Beijing will border the Russians.True, but remember that China in this timeframe is still recovering from the Taiping rebellion.
That's because Joseon is seen as a loyal,harmless vassal?It's one thing to cede parts of Manchuria,but ceding the wholeActually. by this time that was just an excuse with no real effect on actually legitimacy. That was why Joseon was able to slowly widen its administration into Gando/Jiandao without the Qing raising too big a fuss.
That's because Joseon is seen as a loyal,harmless vassal?It's one thing to cede parts of Manchuria,but ceding the whole
thing is impossible.The last time a Chinese regime that centres in Beijing and lost control of Manchuria ended up easily conquered by the party who conquered Manchuria.
China always wins in total wars. The only time they lost was against the mongols, but as everyone knows..
They're the exception.
I think you're overly optimistic as to how effective the Qing military was at the time. First of all, there were plenty of other rebellions that desperately needed the attention of the Qing military once they'd defeated the Taiping. They were still occupied fighting the Nian, the Miao, the Panthays, and the Dungans the last of whom would not be defeated until the late 1870's. The Qing essentially lost control of their Central Asian possessions for the better part of two decades. Moreover, the process of re-equipping and re-training their forces to use Western style equipment and tactics was slow and spotty. Depending on when exactly we're talking about in the 1860-1879 period that could be a sizable portion of their military, or it could be virtually none of it. Another point to consider is the regionalism that tookhold of the Chinese military, and the state more generally, during and after the Taiping Rebellion. There's no guarrantee that one regional force will come to the aid of another, so the Russians may well be facing only a portion of the total Chinese forces. Compound that with the fact that the most of China's modern military arsenals were constructed in the late 1860's and they won't have the same access to odern equipment as they did later on. Fundamentally, my understanding is that the Qing military was still much more similar to the force that was torn apart by the Anglo-French in 1860 than the one that fought the French to a standstill in 1885.There's no great wall to stop barbarian invasions anymore. China has to hold manchuria, or the russians will be on beijing's doorstep. I suspect, they'll try to hold it, at all costs.
And keep in mind, while the qing would be recovering from the taiping, they would also be fresh off of a victorious war. They would have large numbers of battle-hardened units, good generals, and even some european armed and trained forces such as the ever victorious army. In short, it's like attacking america right after the american civil war ends. A really fucking bad idea.
China always wins in total wars. The only time they lost was against the mongols, but as everyone knows..
They're the exception.