WI Russia wins the Russo-Japanese War

Here are some possibilities.

1. A Russian defeat of Japan would complicate the rapprochement between Russia and the United Kingdom that, IOTL, took place in the years between the end of the Russo-Japanese War and the start of the First World War. This, in turn, would hinder the emergence of the entente cordiale between Britain and France. It might also lead to the continuation of the "Great Game" in the Subcontinent.


2. Russian victory would lead to Russian acquisition of territory inhabited by Chinese, Mongolian, and Korean people. This might foster the development of an "imperial" identity that was strong enough to compete with Pan-Slavism and Russophilia. The weakening of the former would reduce the chances of the "Serbian tail wagging the Russian dog." The weakening of the latter would reduce the chances of the Russification measures that did so much to alienate members of ethnic, linguistic, and religious minorities.
 
Depends on how they win. If they perform as badly as OTL but win through Japanese bankruptcy, they won't lose face or South Sakhalin but they will by no means be able to project more towards the Far East, not while their finances stay in awful and the Poles keep agitating. Mind that Korea's on the other side of Eurasia and, in 1900, had a population of around 12 million, which was about 10% of Russia's total population. Administering that will not be cheap (it would, however, make the Trans-Siberia Railroad even more important than OTL) and Korea's got a history of not being receptive to foreign occupation (the double Polish-Korean quagmires, could be, with the UK and Japan funding rebels on both sides of the empire).

In any case, it will likely keep the Russians assured of their superiority and lessen the immediate desire for reform. Which isn't good as the military reforms after the Russo-Japanese debacle kept Russia's army competitive with the rest of Europe's. Russia's not going to suffer the same amount of unrest immediately but Germany could potentially roll over Russia and gut it before it gets enough of a wake up call to reform in an ATL WWI.
 
Depends on how they win. If they perform as badly as OTL but win through Japanese bankruptcy, they won't lose face or South Sakhalin but they will by no means be able to project more towards the Far East, not while their finances stay in awful and the Poles keep agitating. Mind that Korea's on the other side of Eurasia and, in 1900, had a population of around 12 million, which was about 10% of Russia's total population. Administering that will not be cheap (it would, however, make the Trans-Siberia Railroad even more important than OTL) and Korea's got a history of not being receptive to foreign occupation (the double Polish-Korean quagmires, could be, with the UK and Japan funding rebels on both sides of the empire).

In any case, it will likely keep the Russians assured of their superiority and lessen the immediate desire for reform. Which isn't good as the military reforms after the Russo-Japanese debacle kept Russia's army competitive with the rest of Europe's. Russia's not going to suffer the same amount of unrest immediately but Germany could potentially roll over Russia and gut it before it gets enough of a wake up call to reform in an ATL WWI.


A victory by exhaustion would likely let the Russians annex Manchuria and Korea. Anything more and the British would have an easy time intervening to protect Japan Keep Russian interests in the Far East and prevent the pan slavic tilt of post reform Russian foreign policy. Total population would be about 33,000,000 and provide some sizable resources for the Russians

Reforms would be coming esspecially in the economic and agarian sectors as the failure of the Witte program was obvious and corrections planned before the war. As to military reforms: If Russia wins a war by exhaustion, then many lessons will be applied You would see Kuropatkin not discredited. One effect would be widespread adoption of machine guns


On the other hand, if they win a quick and decisive victory at sea- say the complete the Tyrtov's program on schedule in 1903 and the Baltic and Pacific fleets make an early junction, then things get more interesting. British intervention would be very difficult. There's no way that Britain can keep two thirds of her navy between Russia and Japan. So Japan could end up as a Russian protectorate

the Germans probably do the best job of reforming based on the lessons of the Russo-Japanese war, the French the worst. Russia learns a lot of lessons but goes broke. So if you avoid it, Russia is better off, France better off and the Germans worse off
 
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