WI: Russia stays out of Siberia till later, and never reaches the Pacific

I'm trying to visualize 'Japan' as including modern industrial cities extending into the interior of Siberia. Still retaining some of their 20th Century frontier vibe.
 
Depending on how nullis that terra is in the 19th century, I can see the USA establishing supply ports for whaling perhaps on Sakhalin or the Kuriles, even on the mainland. These can become permanent. North pacific Whaling was big for the USA.
 
Depending on how nullis that terra is in the 19th century, I can see the USA establishing supply ports for whaling perhaps on Sakhalin or the Kuriles, even on the mainland. These can become permanent. North pacific Whaling was big for the USA.

Japan had fairly solid claims to the area all the way back to the 1850s. Petropavlovsk would be easy enough though.
 

raharris1973

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@sloreck - On the one hand I can see Americans being interested in outposts in the erstwhile Russian Far East for purposes of whaling but also as a way to approach the China and Japan markets from the north. On the other hand, since the only thing the Chinese would buy at the time was opium, foreign traders pretty much had to approach from the south.
 
I'm trying to visualize 'Japan' as including modern industrial cities extending into the interior of Siberia. Still retaining some of their 20th Century frontier vibe.
Japanese Western films revolving around the Siberian frontier, gold rushes and ghost towns, duels of honor between the shamed and exiled, fighting with Siberian natives, nomad raiders, and Russian Cossacks all the while trying to find fame and fortune in the coldest, wildest reaches of the world.

Like what Manchuria was to the East for centuries, except longer, colder, and potentially richer.

I'd watch it.
 
Japanese "claims" to the Kuriles, and Sakhalin in 1850 were simply not enforceable. These areas had little if any "Japanese" population, and the Japanese military forces of the day had minimal force projection capability to these areas. Sure, a small Japanese force could massacre the Americans at a whaling resupply port. The USA, even in 1850, was perfectly capable of sending a punitive expedition and samurai with bows and arrows and swords won't do well against muskets and light cannon firing grapeshot. US warships can easily interdict any sea travel from the Japanese home islands. In fact such an attack would probably guarantee the US seizing this territory as US property - unlike Hawaii where whaling resupply was not resisted by the locals, the annexation came much later for other reasons.
 
From what I read, the key is within the Khanate of Sibir which could prove a long-term block to the process if things turn out differently there.
 
I discussed the US setting up stations on Sakhlain, Kuriles, may Kamchatka as resting stops/reprovisioning for US whalers who routinely were in the North Pacific. This could lead to annexation under certain circumstances.
 
Post 1870 the US would have trouble enforcing claims vs Japan. The US Navy was in decline as a blue water expeditionary fleet & the basing problem that drove War Plan Orange fifty years later would exist. Japan with British backing was OTL starting it's regional Navy. If Japan does as OTL seek European patrons in building a modern military the US would not be just squabbling with a isolated Asian nation.
 
The USA claiming territory in the Kuriles or Sakhalin (Kamchatka won't be disputed) could very well mean that the USN won't sink as low as it did OTL by 1870. You would have had say 20 years of the American flag flying over some islands that, to be honest, were pretty unpopulated until you had Americans arrive. I expect you'll have growth of the American population as well intermarriage with locals. The UK and the USA are still hashing out the Alabama claims, and the UK will not want to get in to a serious tiff with the USA to support the Japanese over a few of the Kuriles or Sakhalin.
 
The OP assumes a very firm butterfly net, even extending to Russian politics. Okay.

If the Russians who went east don't, they'll still want to be trading east, so you'll still see expanding trade into areas of southern Siberia. It might temporarily strengthen local states and enrich intermediaries, though. And there's also the issue that the price of furs is only going up. If the people trading through southern Siberia don't mitigate fur prices by brutal imperialism, the people trading out of the White Sea will only have more incentive to do so. By the POD, Russians had been extorting tribute from northern peoples for some time; I'd expect that to have more impetus above OTL.

For eastern Siberia, it's technically possible that the coast remain out of Russian hands. Assuming direct conquest can be delayed long enough, it might even be (barely) the more probable outcome. Certainly it is safe to say that the timing of Russian arrival on the northern / northeastern Chinese frontiers matters a great deal. We're choosing not to butterfly the Qing, I take it, in which case that's all the more true. As others have said, though, it would not be a case of the Chinese seeking to replace the Russians' OTL annexation, but to prevent them. China would probably most prefer to dominate the band beyond Mongolia and Manchuria by extracting token fealty and symbolic tribute from various pre-state and pseudo-state peoples.

Can China prevent Russian infiltration, though? It might require impractical military campaigns. Or perhaps China could merely supply various South Siberian confederations with arms, and rely on the locals to fight the Russians? It would be an interesting scenario to see explored.

In any case, China expanded to counteract perceived encroachment - e.g. war with France, or the Qing reframing lost Central Asian valleys as lost Integral Chinese Territory. The exception was when particular ruling personalities pushed outward; hard to predict. In either case, it's safe to say a Chinese reaction to Russian advances in Siberia would be different, but different how? is harder to say.

Japan would have opportunities to the north, but whether they make anything of those opportunities is another matter. If we're reigning in butterflies, Japan won't technically annex Hokkaido for a long time. When Japan does come out of its shell, it'll have a very good chance to snap up all of Sakhalin along with Hokkaido et al, but mostly because few will want it. But the actual far north...? Not so much.

It's as likely that you find Nantucket Quaker or Cornish whaling outposts on the northeast Siberian coastlines as anything Japanese, as far as I can see. At least the former were out exploring, doing that sort of thing. By the time Japan could try to grab the peninsulas, they'd have much more urgent concerns and targets for expansion and trade to their west, south, and east. And if Japan does get economically entangled with the north, Alaska's a much more rewarding target than the Asian shore.
 
Is it possible Far East Siberia could have some sort of status not seen in OTL? An official no-man's land of international territory, overseen by great powers collectively?
 
With no Russian influence in the area, then even if things stay largely the same otherwise, then there would be no Russo-Japanese War.. I should think that would make a big differences.
 
Is it possible Far East Siberia could have some sort of status not seen in OTL? An official no-man's land of international territory, overseen by great powers collectively?
It would still border at least 3 potential great powers, the borders would be impossible to enforce due to logistics and distance, is full of ores, coal, furs, and later petroleum and natural gas. They're going to fight over who gets those riches for sure.

Ah jeez, now I actually wanna write about it. Exiled samurai, gold prospectors, raiders, just imagine!
 
It would still border at least 3 potential great powers, the borders would be impossible to enforce due to logistics and distance, is full of ores, coal, furs, and later petroleum and natural gas. They're going to fight over who gets those riches for sure.

Ah jeez, now I actually wanna write about it. Exiled samurai, gold prospectors, raiders, just imagine!
Gun slinging Ronin discover the Tunguska Event, and have to fight a shaman who believes he did it and is going to use it to drive the Japanese out of Siberia
 
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